The new Libya: various aspects

[CrowBat]

How Emirati air power turned Haftar's Libyan oil ports disaster to victory

How could an army have lost an entire region in a few days - and then recovered it so quickly?

On 14 March, General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army launched a counterattack against the fighters of the Saraya Defend Benghazi and the Petroleum Facilities Guard coalition, which had managed to take most of the coastal cities near the oil terminals 10 days earlier.

This lightning counter-offensive has left observers skeptical. How could an army have lost an entire region in a few days - and then recovered it so quickly?

The reasons for the failure of Haftar to contain the offensive on the oil terminals in the first place were multiple. Unlike their first attempt in#December 2016, the SDB and PFG fighters managed to rally some militias from Misrata including the al-Marsa Brigade. That's the first reason.

Secondly, the SDB-PFG convoy coming from Zillah, a town in the Sahara Desert where the SDB were based, joined the fight quickly and attacked several locations, taking Haftar troops - which were already limited in number because they were fighting on other fronts, particularly Derna - by surprise. The UAE's Wing Loong drones, supporting Haftar's forces,#apparently failed to spot the oncoming convoy in the desert.
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[davidbfpo]

A SME has a report on the situation, which is summarized in the sub-title:

Given the complex attitudes towards foreign interventions in Libya, we need a clear strategy that stands up to local, regional, and international scrutiny.

Or the closing paragraphs:

This is exacerbated by the secrecy and ambiguity over the intentions of intervening countries. Ambiguity and lack of transparency create hearsay and fuel accusations, drawing interveners into the local dynamics of the conflict, making it impossible to be seen as an apolitical or non-partisan player. This cannot help but undermine diplomatic action. In the case of the GNA, the international intervention only fuelled accusations that it was little more than a puppet government, created by external powers and serving a foreign agenda. Such accusations weakened it further and chipped away at its legitimacy.
If nothing else, my research underscores the need for greater transparency, so that international actions and intentions can stand up to the scrutiny of the many competing local groups that will need to be brought onside if Libya is to see peace.

LinK: https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-...d-if-we-don-t?

[davidbfpo]

A short paper from ICSR and their explanation:

International stakeholders seem determined to push for Libyan elections at the end of 2018, a stance echoed by verbal commitment of national politicians. However, the outlook of elections in Libya this year remains uncertain. Seven years have passed since the fall of Muammar al-Qaddafi, who ruled Libya for 42 years. Elections could provide the positive changes this troubled country needs; at the same time, they also bear the potential to exacerbate the volatile security situation and political divisions in the country. Rightly so, Libyans demand that the transition phase needs to end, and current profiteers should have fewer advantages from the current divided system.

Link:https://icsr.info/2018/08/09/libyan-...ous-endeavour/