The new Libya: various aspects

[Rex Brynen]

I too worry about thing like loose missiles but I can do the math -- and that does not favor putting US forces on the ground in Libya..

I would go further, Ken--I think putting US forces on ground would actually be counterproductive. The Libyans certainly don't want them (a point that seems to have escaped some recent commentators on the issue).

Instead, I think we're likely to see a lightweight, integrated MILOBS/CIVPOL mission similar to MINUGA, complemented by bilateral assistance from the French, British, Qataris, Jordanians, and others. Whether the security situation comes together or falls apart will be in large part a function of adroit local politics, not boots on the ground. In this respect, the rather anomalous Iraqi and Afghan cases have rather skewed perceptions of how post civil war transformations are usually facilitated (which is NOT through a large US or NATO presence).

[Rex Brynen]

...and then there is the real reason the NTC won: the secret AQ-NATO alliance:

Then, a NATO warship sailed up and anchored just off the shore at Tripoli, delivering heavy weapons and debarking Al Qaeda jihadi forces, which were led by NATO officers.

Fighting stared again during the night. There were intense firefights. NATO drones and aircraft kept bombing in all directions. NATO helicopters strafed civilians in the streets with machine guns to open the way for the jihadis.

I thought this was supposed to be kept a secret, dammit! What is it with all the OPSEC violations these days?

[Ken White]

Where do you guys find these porn sites???

P.S.

Agree with you, Rex, on personal pleasure that the Libyans are in process of removing Qaddafi. I'm even happier that Sarko and Cameron -- as well as the Dutch, Qataris and others including you Great White North types, the RCN and the RCAF (think that's the first time I've written that in over 40 years... ) stepped up and aided. I do not object terribly to the fact that we assisted a bit even though I believed and still do that we had no pressing interest there, as opposed to the Europeans who did and do...

[Dayuhan]

I would go further, Ken--I think putting US forces on ground would actually be counterproductive. The Libyans certainly don't want them (a point that seems to have escaped some recent commentators on the issue).

Agree with you, Rex, on personal pleasure that the Libyans are in process of removing Qaddafi. I'm even happier that Sarko and Cameron -- as well as the Dutch, Qataris and others including you Great White North types, the RCN and the RCAF (think that's the first time I've written that in over 40 years... ) stepped up and aided. I do not object terribly to the fact that we assisted a bit even though I believed and still do that we had no pressing interest there, as opposed to the Europeans who did and do...

I agree with Rex on the counterproductivity of US boots on the ground, and I share the sense of satisfaction at seeing Qaddafi fall to a Libyan resistance. Of course that satisfaction has to be tempered by a realistic assessment of the difficulties that will follow, but those difficulties would be there in any post-Qaddafi scenario. Those with unrealistic expectations will be disappointed, and some will blame NATO or the US or the Libyans. Better to keep the expectations realistic and avoid the need to blame anyone.

Building a functioning government to replace the 40-year absolute rule of a lunatic dictator is extraordinarily difficult, but it was going to happen sooner or later. Doing too much or too little would make matters worse; that was true durting the rebellion and it will be equally true in the phase to come. hopefully the interested outside parties can come in somewhere in between.

[M-A Lagrange]

...and then there is the real reason the NTC won: the secret AQ-NATO alliance:



I thought this was supposed to be kept a secret, dammit! What is it with all the OPSEC violations these days?

Rex,

Reading the article, I realised it was from "Reseau Voltaire". I would like to point out that Reseau Voltaire is extremely controversial, including and mainly about the sources and accuracy of facts related on it.
Just an exemple: in 2001, after 9/11, reseau voltaire supported (And still is) that it was a jewish plot and that Pentagone was a fake attack organised by CIA.
If what is said on that article is partially true, I would recommend great suspicion on the AQ and other interpretation/analyse of the events related on Reseau Voltaire.

[Rex Brynen]

Reading the article, I realised it was from "Reseau Voltaire". I would like to point out that Reseau Voltaire is extremely controversial, including and mainly about the sources and accuracy of facts related on it.

Yes, I do realize that NATO officers weren't leading jihadist troops in Tripoli.

[Fuchs]

Why do I bother to write forum posts on this?

I wrote this text years ago to deal once and for all with this kind of stupid thinking.


Economics is about allocating resources wisely.
####ting your pants at a random fantasy and throwing resources at countermeasures without a coherent and purposeful system for proper resource allocation is a recipe for waste.
A six-year-old can do better.

[Rex Brynen]

Instead, I think we're likely to see a lightweight, integrated MILOBS/CIVPOL mission similar to MINUGA...

That should be MINUGUA, of course.