The new Libya: various aspects

[Rex Brynen]

... so could a swarm of geese. So what?

You and I both know that a swarm of geese downing an airliner would not have the same political effects as some AQ wannabe doing it.

(Unless, of course, they were jihadist geese.)

[ganulv]

I’m watching a reporter on Galavisión tour Gaddafi’s compound and a guy wearing a shirt that said <Strength Through Christ> was just standing in front of the camera yelling, “Allahu Akbar!” As second hand clothing moments go I think that tops even my girlfriend’s story of being at an Eid sacrifice in Burkina Faso where one of the participants was wearing a White Power t-shirt.

[Fuchs]

Why? Jesus is one of their prophets, and not necessarily a lesser one than Mohammed.

[ganulv]

Why? Jesus is one of their prophets, and not necessarily a lesser one than Mohammed.

Jesus is certainly important in Islam but there is no Resurrection tradition in Islam ergo no Christ. But trust a Southerner, it was an über-Evangelical t-shirt. Jesus has a place in Islam but Mohammed has no place in Evangelicalism. Well, Apostate #1, maybe.

There is a great moment in Of Gods and Men that touches on exactly what you’re talking about, though.

[carl]

Ken:

I have to learn to write more clearly. People seem to misunderstand me a lot. I will strive to do better.

Please notice that in post #44 I used a phrase something like "are involved in an important way." That means we already paid our dues and have a lot of clout which will make it easier for us to definitely track those missiles down if that can be done. I did not advocate increasing the level of our involvement escpecially when it comes to putting ground troops down. I don't believe I ever advocated that beyond a very limited number of trainers, log guys and maybe some secret JTAC types, none of which I would be surprised to see we have already done. Next time I will get my words in agreement and use "will" where I used "would".

I actually think that up to now, we have handled this thing pretty well and it is working out well for us. That may change tomorrow but it is looking OK now. We took care of the heavy weapons and the rebels did the rest as they should have. Now come the long frustrating part and it is for them to handle.

People tend to underestimate the effect of SA-24s getting out could have. The Russians use it themselves and have only sold it to two other countries. It is my understanding they generally only do that with things that really work well. A publication of the Society of Old Crows, ''Of Arrows and Needles'', says those things are scary good missiles:http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0...es-Russia.html. If they ended up in Afghanistan the impact they would have would be far beyond a morale effect or giving aircrews justification for combat pay. They might threaten the ability of our forces to operate with the help of all the low level slow movers, to include helos, ISR assets, fixed wing gunships and maybe even A-10s. That is a big thing. That is a huge thing.

Fuchs:

You seem a bit testy. Those missiles are actually present in Libya. The situation in Libya is chaotic. It can be reasonably concluded that they may end up here, there, anywhere and should be gotten control of. This is hardly in the realm of contemplating equiping all civil airliners with anti-missile systems which is what I assume you were talking about in your blog post.

[Steve Blair]

Obligatory "keep it civil" warning round, folks.

[Fuchs]

Missiles are in many places. So what?


The concerns about Libyan ManPADS don't even stand a "so what" test.
You can buy ManPADS on the black market. There was one a Chechen warband in platoon strength destroyed by the Russians that had several ManPADS with them as if they were M72s.

To deal with Libyan weapons that got into the hands of irregulars (or whoever) requires idiotic, preventively expensive measures that are in no sane relation to the probability of those missiles actually being put into effective use against an airliner.

The whole 'being concerned' about those tiny missiles is a path to stupidity.

The world is already stupid enough.


edit: I meant this EXACTLY as I wrote it. This is my 'civil' mode. Anyone who disagrees that I gave a factual description can feel free to challenge me on it.

[Rex Brynen]

Missiles are in many places. So what?

The concerns about Libyan ManPADS don't even stand a "so what" test.
You can buy ManPADS on the black market.

It is actually rather harder than you think to buy a working MANPADS with a functional seeker head, coolant, and battery, and it is certainly quite difficult to get a later generation weapon. Moreover, the buyback programs both increase the price and, in some cases, generate useful intelligence on the black market.

AQIM, for example, hasn't deployed them in the Sahel, although they would be very useful. Prior to that, they weren't used in Algeria at all during the civil war (so far as I'm aware--I stand to be corrected). The ones used in Mombassa in 2002 were old, poor quality SA-7s.. indeed, it isn't even clear the attackers had managed to fire functional missiles (see my comment on "working" MANPADS). There has been no confirmed used of them by Hamas, in part because they previously couldn't be easily obtained on the black market (I suspect the Iranians were worried about chain-of-custody, since they largely smuggle through black market intermediaries; now there are reports that Hamas has them via Libya). Neither the Hawthis nor AQIP appear to have used them in Yemen.

No one is suggesting MANPADS be a driver of policy in Libya, nor have they been. Ought it be one of the (many) things the IC and NTC address? Of course.

[Ken White]

Please notice that in post #44 I used a phrase something like "are involved in an important way." That means we already paid our dues and have a lot of clout which will make it easier for us to definitely track those missiles down if that can be done...

Sorry for misunderstanding, I took "I imagine it would be easier for us to do that given that we are involved in an important way" as suggesting possible increased involvement and, more pointedly, that only we could or properly should exercise such control.

People tend to underestimate the effect of SA-24s getting out could have... That is a big thing. That is a huge thing.

Perspective again. To a Flyer, it is understandably huge. To a grunt, present or former, it's a "Okay, for your clean sheets at night and decent food, you may get shot at with better weapons. Wow. Poor Baby.." That is NOT being glib, that is perspective, exaggerated perspective, hyperbolic perspective but perspective. Nor is it downplaying the capabilities of the Grinch; similar ground oriented capabilities have been available to many since the 70s.

Perhaps as is often the case, the truth wobbles about somewhere between my possible underestimation and your equally possible overestimation. The crux of the matter, I think is that, hopefully, someone responsible; Libyan NTC, British, French, even the US if we do have folks there now (as You Tube suggests... ) get control if it is possible -- I hope we can agree on that. We seem to agree that additional US forces are not necessarily required.

[carl]

Ken:

Maybe we were talking past one another again. I find little to disagree with in your last post. The effect of those things getting out is probably somewhere in the middle as you say. I do think it would be more rather than less though if only because there aren't that many of certain critical airplanes available, AC-130s for example. Unlike wars past we only have a handful and there is no fully cranked up production line. If a system that might reliably penetrate its' defenses existed in theatre, I suspect the USAF would severely curtail ops, not because the airman are nervous in the face of danger, but because they just couldn't afford to lose any airplanes that basically can't be replaced. If those ops were curtailed, it would very much effect the ground guys in an important way.

We do agree, more of us aren't needed on the ground. In their own eyes, the Libyan rebels are covering themselves with glory and still like us some, more of us would spoil that.