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  1. #1
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The new Libya: various aspects

    There is a main thread 'Libya goes on' with just under 1k posts and 31.6k views, which ws locked when this thread started and remains locked (January 2012):http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12610

    Now as it appears the rebels are near, even in, Tripoli is the end for the Gadafy regime in sight? So a new thread is appropriate IMHO; a note has been added to the other thread.

    As this thread concerns the new Libya I have today changed the title from 'Libya: nearing the end? Towards a new Libya' to 'The new Libya: various aspects'

    I commend (again) http://www.enduringamerica.com/ which has several maps of Tripoli, with district names and a link to a Google map showing reported activity:http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/...n-tripoli.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-20-2012 at 07:29 PM. Reason: Adding Mods Note and today title change.
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    There is a main thread 'Libya goes on' with just under 1k posts and 31.6k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12610

    Now as it appears the rebels are near, even in, Tripoli is the end for the Gadafy regime in sight? So a new thread is appropriate IMHO; a note has been added to the other thread.

    I commend (again) http://www.enduringamerica.com/ which has several maps of Tripoli, with district names and a link to a Google map showing reported activity:http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/...n-tripoli.html
    David,

    Sorry for this critical note, but I think that "nearing the end" is not an appropriate title for this new tread. Ok, Gadafy will be gone soon. But experience shows that this simply means that the cause that held the rebels (and NATO) together will soon be gone. What will come next may be pretty, or not. I suggest changing the title of this tread to "towards a new Libya".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Sorry for this critical note, but I think that "nearing the end" is not an appropriate title for this new tread. Ok, Gadafy will be gone soon. But experience shows that this simply means that the cause that held the rebels (and NATO) together will soon be gone. What will come next may be pretty, or not. I suggest changing the title of this tread to "towards a new Libya".
    Good point, Marc.
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


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    Default Thread title compromise

    OK, title amended and currently a compromise. If it is the end of Gadafy's regime it can be changed again.
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    Default Snippets

    Amidst all the reporting, which is dominating UK TV news today, were a couple of interesting points made:

    Libya had the two advantages of oil and no standing army
    The bulk of the rebels in Tripoli are well disciplined Berbers
    A couple of references to Special Forces presence
    The TNC President calling for no reprisals, that all party leaders had agreed to this, but some of their followers were not complying
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    The bulk of the rebels in Tripoli are well disciplined Berbers
    Certainly, the breakthrough from the Nafusa Mountains to Zawiyya, and then along the coast into Tripoli was essential to the regime's collapse--and the Berbers (I wouldn't call them "well disciplined") were essential to that.

    However, it isn't the case that "the bulk of the rebels in Tripoli" are Berbers—not everyone in Nafusa is Berber, volunteers from Zawiyya joined the push, the NTC had relocated its Tripoli Brigade (consisting of fighters originally from Tripoli) to the west for the offensive, fighters from Misurata arrived from sea and from the east, and many Tripoli neighbourhoods were seized by local rebels before outside columns arrived.

    This isn't in any way to denigrate the remarkable contribution of Libyan Berbers to the struggle against Qaddafi. They had been treated very poorly by the regime for 42 years--and clearly in this case "what goes around, comes around..."
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


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    Hereafter an interesting view on the outcome of the Libyan revolution:

    http://abcclio.blogspot.com/2011/02/...jected-to.html

    Thursday, February 24, 2011
    Libya: Another Power Bank Subjected to a Stress Test

    By Erik Claessen


    Revolutions are unpredictable, dynamic, and stirring, but they tend to follow a small set of simple rules. Drawing on Talcott Parson’s sociological theory, Charles Kurzman concisely explains why: “Coercion, he suggests, is like the reserves of a bank. So long as the demands on it are limited, the reserves can be meted out effectively. When there is a run on the bank, however, the reserves are quickly overwhelmed. No matter how great the reserves of coercion may have been, no state can repress all of the people all of the time.”(1) Revolutions are to an autocratic regime what stress tests are to a bank: a method to check their credibility.


    The rules — Revolutions temporarily upset the balance between mobilization power and organizational skills. People like stability. When offered a choice between an acceptable status quo and a better, yet uncertain alternative, most people will opt for the former. The status quo only loses its appeal when people realize it has become unsustainable, but even then revolutions do not start spontaneously. Someone or something needs to mobilize the people to start them. The occurrence of revolutions revolves around mobilization power. Conversely, their outcome revolves around organizational skills. Put differently, the actor with the highest mobilization power leads the revolution, but the actor with the best organizational skills wins it. Organizational skills generate the capacity to create a new, acceptable, and stable situation. Mobilization power revolves around a rallying message and access to media that allow its dissemination despite the regime’s countervailing efforts. The media can be anything as long as they escape state control, but the rallying message has to fulfill specific requirements. It needs to bring about a run on the Power Bank. The message has to focus everybody’s courage and anger simultaneously on one cause. An autocratic regime can only be overthrown by overwhelming its reserves of coercion with a defiant mass.


    The players — A classification by role:
    •The focal point. The revolutionaries focus their mobilizing message on the autocrat and his immediate entourage. In Libya, the focal points are – of course – Qadhafi himself and his sons, primarily his eldest son, Sayf Al-Islam.
    •The regime’s wannabes. The military and security top of the regime are undoubtedly capable of taking power. That is why Qadhafi created overlapping security institutions and appointed people on the basis of tribal affiliation. Until now, the survival of the regime’s wannabes depended on their ability to conceal their ambition. That is why it is impossible now to identify them.
    •The tolerated, but organizationally capable opponent. Though not as powerful as their Egyptian brethren, the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood is a capable movement. Its charitable activities demonstrate their organizational power but they have to shed the doubt concerning their relation with the regime that tolerated them. Recently, Qadhafi sought an accommodation with the brotherhood by releasing a lot of imprisoned members. Sayf Al-Islam also publicly reached out to the organization. That the Brotherhood gradually shifted from confrontational to influencing strategies may have alienated part of the population. The fact that its leader, Suleiman Abdel Qadir, currently resides in Switzerland and does not participate in the revolution is probably not helpful either.
    •The emerging, but organizationally incapable opponents: These primarily consist of those who lead the revolution. As an emerging movement they lack organizational experience and structure. They will try to close their organizational gap as quickly as possible. Alternatively, revolutionaries may try to mask this gap by claiming symbols of a political model that worked before, like the monarchy that was ousted by Qadhafi in 1969.


    The tricks — As in any game, the tricks fit the rules. Their application can be observed in endless variations throughout the Middle East:
    •Discrediting the message or the messenger. Regime rhetoric routinely depicts the opposition as Israeli or western lackeys, but this trick lost all effectiveness.
    •Denying access to the media. Revolutions used to be won by the group that gained control of the national television station. However, media denial is an exercise in futility when revolutionaries exploit modern, uncensored communication technology. This is not new. During the Iranian revolution, regime opponents used audiocassettes – then a new technology – to circumvent state censorship of radio broadcasting. Now opponents use cell phones and social networks on the internet.
    •Remove the focal point of the mobilizing message. This is by far the best trick in the regime’s toolbox. Replacing the autocrat with someone who can at least claim the benefit of the doubt may stifle mobilization and reduce resistance to a level manageable by the regime’s reserves of coercion. Any regime wannabe can play this card.
    •Await chaos and offer an alternative to it. This is a dangerous move that is only feasible for an actor with sufficient organizational skills to offer an acceptable alternative. It is unsure whether the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood is capable of this.


    The outcome — The ultimate outcome is not determined by how many people the actors mobilize, but by what their organizational skills can provide. Each possible outcome has advantages and drawbacks. Democracy will bring freedom and economic opportunities, but also inflation and income inequality. Islamism will bring social justice and religious purity, but also social rigidity. A new autocracy will merely turn back the clock. For Libya, the problem is that democracy and oil do not mix well. Russia has shown that in oil economies, economic liberalization gives rise to the emergence of oligarchs resulting in a call for a strong regime. A Libyan democratic government will most probably be unable to combine freedom and social justice. In an oil economy there are but few methods to re-distribute wealth. The two most likely foundations of a new social contract are either a patronizing system granting government jobs on the basis of subservience or a social security system based on the Islamic duty to help the poor. The former could evolve into a new autocracy. The latter would tend towards an Islamist state.

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    Default Libya News Roundup

    Libya News Roundup

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    Default Libya News Roundup # 2

    Libya News Roundup # 2

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    Default This Week at War: The Libya Model

    This Week at War: The Libya Model

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    Default 24 August Evening Libya News Roundup

    24 August Evening Libya News Roundup

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    Default US Tactics in Libya May Be a Model for Other Efforts

    US Tactics in Libya May Be a Model for Other Efforts

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    Default Libya Update Roundup

    Libya Update Roundup

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    Default Qatari soldiers, not Green Berets, execute UW campaign in Libya

    Qatari soldiers, not Green Berets, execute UW campaign in Libya

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    Default Arab Thoughts on the Italian Colonial Wars in Libya

    Arab Thoughts on the Italian Colonial Wars in Libya

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    Default Benghazi and Libya's Jihadist Minority

    Not exactly a title US audiences would expect this week, Dr. Omar Ashour, a regional analyst, has provided insight on what happened this week; the full title is 'The nature of Libya’s post-revolution armed Islamist forces is by no means straightforward'.

    Link:http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/opinio...-minority_9544

    Some key sections:
    Salafi jihadism is not an organization, but an ideological trend based on the core belief that armed tactics of all kinds are the most effective – and, in some versions, the most legitimate – method of bringing about social and political change.....

    The tragic death of Stevens and his colleagues has engendered wide public outrage in Libya, adding to the isolation and de-legitimization of the armed groups. Dozens of Libyan activist groups have uploaded videos paying tribute to Stevens, as well as issuing statements against terrorism and Al Qaeda. One of the Muslim Brothers’ Web sites includes such a statement, and Libya’s Grand Mufti, Sheikh Sadeq al-Gheriani, also condemned the attack....

    Collective punishment and targeting the innocent is forbidden in the Koran in more than 20 verses: “That no burdened person (with sins) shall bear the burden (sins) of another” (The Star Chapter 53:18).
    There is a main thread on Libya, so this will be merged there another day.
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    David:

    Where is the main thread on Libya? I can't find it.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Default Lost & Found

    Updated

    The short thread 'Benghazi and Libya's Jihadist Minority' has been merged into this main Libya thread.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-19-2012 at 11:25 AM.
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    Default Islamist militia bases stormed in Benghazi

    From the BBC:
    At least four people have been killed in the Libyan city of Benghazi after military police and protesters took over militia bases. The violence followed a day of protests by tens of thousands of citizens demanding an end to the armed groups. The bases include the HQ of the Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia, suspected of involvement in an attack on the US consulate in the city.....Earlier, some 30,000 protesters marched through Benghazi calling for an end to the armed groups and a return to the rule of law.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19680785 and slightly different, more detail:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa...259561409.html

    Will this be well covered by the US media?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-22-2012 at 10:36 AM.
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    Arrow My plan for a secure diplomatic military base for Libya

    Check out my "My plan for a secure diplomatic military base for Libya" post in my "Diplomatic security after terrorists kill US Ambassador in Benghazi, Libya" thread in the "Government Agencies & Officials" forum of this SWC forums.

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