The new Libya: various aspects

[Graycap]

I guess we'll do something similar as we did with the Palestinian authorities, except with a bit more personal attention by the French president.

The situation is quite different. Palestinians have no oil, and there is no Israel with its own power and policy.
In Libya (and Tunisia) the only international player with great opportunities and great risks is Europe and european countries. Europe could start a narrative closing its past and building better future.

Now some relevant humour...

To see what CNN has become is really depressing.

One refrain I heard quite often in Libya was that the prolonged struggle to overthrow Qaddafi may have helped to build a stronger sense of national identity and purpose. This isn't to say the challenges aren't serious--they are, given the factionalism that already exists. However it was striking to hear people say "perhaps its a good thing we didn't win in a week, and instead had to work together to achieve this outcome."

Strongly concur. In another forum I wrote some months ago that I thought better for everyone a very slow evolution of miliary operations that could make possible a poltical manouvering of differet actors internal and external. We should also sayy that slowness is possible oly if risk of retaliation is little. This lack of any retaliation is the piece of the puzzle that is difficult to understand.
Rex do you know anything about the central bank situation? It seems strange to me that TNC, with its need for money, has not occupied it and take possession of the caveau.

[motorfirebox]

From my understanding, it seems unlikely to me that the future of Libya is going to be determined by anyone who actually lives there. Gaddafi did a really thorough job of pacifying most of his population--primary evidence for which being the hilarious ineffectiveness of the 'revolution'. The rebels had to be wheeled into Tripoli like an invalid. Now that they're there, I don't see them suddenly getting the healing power of Jay-sus and miraculously being able to walk again. The only question is who's going to be the power behind the wheeled throne. Given the US's disinterest, it seems like it'll come down to Britain and France versus the Arab League. And the AL has the money...

I mean, granted that running a war and running a country are two very different things--but if you can't beat the guys who couldn't beat pickup trucks with tanks, I'm not sure what you're going to have what it takes to run a country, either.

[Fuchs]

To see what CNN has become is really depressing.

Some 'relief' after all that depression...

CNN and Fox News are regular contributors for screenshots with geography or science fails.


BBC World News and German TV News ain't immune to that, either.

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Again: Look at Kosovo and the Palestinian authority.
Now subtract the transfers and look only at the know-how transfer (since Libya can pay its bills with oil).
We will send policemen for police training, lawyers, judges, bureaucrats, 65-80 yrs old politicians, some corporate CEOs...

I doubt that France's government is dumb enough to become heavily involved. It's more likely that they will do just enough to get some special relationship and a good reputation in Libya - and some photo ops for the French president.

Quite the same for Britain.

Berlusconi is probably too busy to care much about Libya (unless he gets a faible for bellydancers, of course).

[motorfirebox]

But will "just enough" be enough? It seems like Libya, with its proven inability to mount a real revolution, is ripe pickings to be somebody's pet oil field. Will whoever ends up running the place be willing to share with anybody that doesn't take a continuing active role?

[Rex Brynen]

But will "just enough" be enough? It seems like Libya, with its proven inability to mount a real revolution

What does a "real revolution" look like? I imagine it's seeming pretty real at the moment to Qaddafi.

[motorfirebox]

What does a "real revolution" look like? I imagine it's seeming pretty real at the moment to Qaddafi.

I think what's real to Gaddafi is the NATO intervention that carried the revolution forward.

[Rex Brynen]

I think what's real to Gaddafi is the NATO intervention that carried the revolution forward.

Both widespread domestic rebellion and external support (NATO and Arab) were necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for toppling Qaddafi.

But foreign support for successful insurgencies is hardly atypical. Indeed, part of successful insurgency is framing your struggle to external audiences in such a way that wins support and/or neutralizes support for the insurgent regime. Insurgents who do that and win are still successful insurgencies. Certainly the NTC enjoys a great more authenticity and legitimacy from having had to fight for liberation than either the Afghan or Iraqi governments initially enjoyed, post-US intervention.

The NTC faces enormous challenges. They may well find them too much. However, I don't think that the history of NATO air support necessarily makes them less able to succeed. Leaving aside Ken's wholly appropriate question of whether this was in the Western or US interest (reasonable people can disagree on that), I'm happy that the Libyan people have a chance to try to succeed. It's more than they've had the last 42 years.