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Thread: The new Libya: various aspects

  1. #241
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default This is a rich country, but they can't agree on who should run it.

    Just two posts away I said:
    There is relatively little reporting on Libya....
    This AM John Simpson, the BBC's Chief Foreign Correspondent, was on the radio from Tripoli:
    The main airport has been destroyed, all the main embassies have been closed down, the big international hotels all stand empty. There are long and frequent power cuts. And yet Tripoli appears entirely calm.

    It is quiet because the city has been carved up by two rival warlords, and their forces are so finely balanced that it is not in the interests of either of them to attack the other. And directly you look below the surface, you start to find the problems that afflict people here.
    No TV footage yet:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33673034
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  2. #242
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    Default The new Libya: various aspects

    ‘Confronting ISIS in Libya: The Case for an Expeditionary Counterinsurgency’

    A SWJ article which includes a review of recent history regarding the civil war / insurgency, plus a few maps. A good read too.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-31-2015 at 03:59 PM. Reason: Copied here and edited.

  3. #243
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    Dr Omar Ashour's latest paper for Brookings: 'Between ISIS and a failed state: The saga of Libyan Islamists' (15 pgs):http://t.co/zeHpp4EfON

    The summary:
    Libya’s diverse Islamist actors played a substantial role in the 2011 armed revolution against Moammar Gadhafi and the subsequent collapse of Libya’s democratization process into armed conflict. The advances of ISIS in Libya and the breakdown of Brotherhood electoral activism in neighboring Egypt, however, present an ideological and recruitment challenge to Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi factions.
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  4. #244
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default 2011 a taxi driver; 2015 an oil minister

    Catching up, a three week old article from The Spectator, by a journalist who went there. With the title and sub-title:
    Cameron’s talking to the wrong Libyan government. He should call my old driverThere are real reasons to worry about Libya Dawn – but also real reasons to try to work with them
    Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/...my-old-driver/

    Near the end:
    It’s not the first time the West has walked away from a land they supposedly liberated, leaving a mess, I pointed out. At some point, Libya will have to sort out its problems on its own.
    davidbfpo

  5. #245
    Registered User smellthebeans's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A short comment by blogger Kyle Orton, it starts with:
    Link:https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...mist-in-libya/
    If this did indeed occur where are all the photographs? Social Media would be blown up with this. Especially when you consider the Mujahideen Shura Council Derna's recent public affairs blitz.

  6. #246
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Default

    By far not everything is caught by the 'social media'; and 90% of what is reported on social media in Arabic never reaches English-language 'areas'.

  7. #247
    Registered User smellthebeans's Avatar
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    Good point!

    But there are a couple of reliable observers on Twitter. Charlie Winters, Daniele Raineri, Mary Fitzger to name a few.
    Last edited by smellthebeans; 12-03-2015 at 01:03 AM.

  8. #248
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    Much of the news reporting recently has pointed to this U.N. report.

    Dash's long term prospects not good because they are seen as a foreign entity. True and when compared to AQ tied leaders & brokers the deficit looks pretty big.

    http://untribune.com/wp-content/uplo...-Libya-ENG.pdf

  9. #249
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Ex-Egyptian MiG-21MF '18' of the Free Libyan Air Force, only recently overhauled by technicians at Gamal Abdel Nasser AB (ex RAF el-Adem, south of Tobruq), was shot down by Islamists over Bo Atni district of Benghazi, yesterday morning:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRa8GBoV4Cg

    Pilot ejected safely.

    In line with what all the air forces seem to do in recent conflicts, LNA/FLAF declared the loss as caused by technical problem.

  10. #250
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    Default IS Foothold in Libya Threatens Europe, West Africa

    IS Foothold in Libya Threatens Europe, West Africa

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  11. #251
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    Default Libya and the Failure to Learn From Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria

    Libya and the Failure to Learn From Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria

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  12. #252
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    Default Pentagon: U.S. Forces in Libya, Looking for ‘Worthy’ Partners

    Pentagon: U.S. Forces in Libya, Looking for ‘Worthy’ Partners

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  13. #253
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default March to Folly 2.0: The Next Western Military Intervention in Libya

    From ECFR by a recommended Italian SME (via Twitter) and starts with:
    Those who want to bring the western war against the Islamic State to Libya insist, as a US official put it in a private conversation, that any intervention would be about IS not about Libya. Alas, regardless of what it will be about, it will take place in Libya. That simple geographic reality means the complex political feuds and intrigues that have plagued Libya politics for the last five years will inevitably intrude on any Western intervention. Ultimately, a Western intervention that fails to account for Libyan politics and fails to consider what will replace ISIS in the event it is defeated will have no benefit for Libya or for the West.
    Link:http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentar...vention_in5083

    Link to ECFR author's bio:http://www.ecfr.eu/profile/C238
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  14. #254
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    From the Soufan Group via Twitter. Possibly from this report last week:http://soufangroup.com/libya-extremi...s-of-collapse/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-06-2016 at 03:05 PM.
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  15. #255
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default A simpler BBC map

    Again via Twitter:
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  16. #256
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Three wise voices

    A Q&A session with three UK experts before the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee. A mix of strategy, detail and what next. With some very curious passages, here is one:
    The Pentagon and the MOD want to go in sooner rather than later. I don’t know how much they have told the State Department or the Foreign Office about these special forces that are inside the country.
    Link:http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevi...oral/28637.pdf

    (Added) One expert, Professor Matthew Porter, has a separate article with a strategic theme:https://offshorebalancer.wordpress.c...hats-at-stake/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2016 at 07:59 PM. Reason: add 2nd link
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  17. #257
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    Default Hunting in Libya

    Via Twitter from @BabakTaghvee, an aero-jornalist.
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  18. #258
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Via Twitter from @BabakTaghvee...
    Aw please: avoid (and in big circle too). Sensationalist with illusions of grandeur (he considers himself 'elite', 'chosen to teach prolls' etc.), driving even well-informed French analysts crazy.

    Few examples:
    - there were 3 F-15Es involved (their route was actually 'quite reminiscent' of the Libyan Raid of April 1986)
    - no deployment of US UAVs in Libya is necessary: Global Hawks and Predators are based at Sigonella.

  19. #259
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default British 'advisers' deployed to Libya to build anti-Isil cells

    A story in The Daily Telegraph (UK) credited to a reporter in Washington DC, cannot think why. It starts with:
    Britain has discreetly deployed military advisers to Libya in order to build an army to fight Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant cells in the country...Special forces commandos are said to be working alongside their US counterparts in the city of Misrata to stop the jihadists’ progress in the lawless terrain across the sea from Italy.
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...sil-cells.html
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  20. #260
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    Default The Libya Gamble Part 1: Hillary Clinton, "Smart Power" and a Dictator's Fall

    The Libya Gamble Part 1: Hillary Clinton, "Smart Power" and a Dictator's Fall

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