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Thread: The new Libya: various aspects

  1. #261
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    Default The Libya Gamble Part 2: A New Libya, With ‘Very Little Time Left’

    The Libya Gamble Part 2: A New Libya, With ‘Very Little Time Left’

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  2. #262
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    Default ISIS in Libya gets Boko Haram help

    An interesting article, although my first reaction was where is the evidence. Would Boko Haram veterans fit in, but then US$1k per month adds to the attraction.
    Link:http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-libya-...ly-war-1547640
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  3. #263
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    Default Analysts: Inaction Strengthens IS in Libya

    Analysts: Inaction Strengthens IS in Libya

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  4. #264
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    Default Another Western Intervention in Libya Looms

    Another Western Intervention in Libya Looms

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  5. #265
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    Default Everyone says the Libya intervention was a failure. They’re wrong.

    An almost revisionist article by Shadi Hamid, a senior fellow at the Project on US Relations with the Islamic World at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Middle East Policy:http://www.vox.com/2016/4/5/11363288...ention-success
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  6. #266
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    Default History of Regionalism and Tribalism in the Current Political Struggle for Libya: Ke

    History of Regionalism and Tribalism in the Current Political Struggle for Libya: Key Reflections and Recommendations

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  7. #267
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    Default Friend or Foe? Doubts Plague US Military in Libya Training

    Friend or Foe? Doubts Plague US Military in Libya Training

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  8. #268
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    Default Now is the Time to Stop the Spread of the Islamic State in Libya

    Now is the Time to Stop the Spread of the Islamic State in Libya

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  9. #269
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    Default

    For anybody interested in such curiosities, here a short story on Libya’s Peculiar, Aerial-Refueling MiG-23s.

  10. #270
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    BTW, Arnaud Delalande, author of recently published book Iraqi Air Power Reborn (covering development of the Iraqi Air Force and Army Aviation since 2003, and available via Amazon as well), is running his own blog, and regularly providing coverage on aerial operations over Libya - by two local air forces.

    Here his newest feature: "Libyan airstrikes" situation update 2 - 8 July 2016".

    His approach to first-hand sources in Iraq and Libya is not only exclusive but (contrary to that of Taghvaee), also reasonable. Arnaud has got several of his articles on Iraq and Libya published by the WiB too.

  11. #271
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    Default Ten Myths About the 2011 Intervention in Libya

    The title of a recent Washington Quarterly article by a French adviser on foreign affairs; which ends with:
    As much as myths about the 2011 intervention should be debunked, we still have lessons to learn.
    Link:https://twq.elliott.gwu.edu/sites/tw...016_Vilmer.pdf

    Topical as today a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee has issued a critical report on David Cameron over the intervention. Citing one report which starts with:
    David Cameron’s intervention in Libya was carried out with no proper intelligence analysis, drifted into an unannounced goal of regime change and shirked its moral responsibility to help reconstruct the country....
    Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...a-intervention
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-14-2016 at 11:37 AM. Reason: 61,722v
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  12. #272
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    Logical consequence of de-facto division of Libya into two:

    You’re a Libyan Military Pilot Trainee — Now Who Do You Fight For?
    In the last three years, perhaps more than 100 Libyan air force cadets have trained at foreign air force academies.

    Most of them began their training in 2012 and 2013 before the Libyan government split into two — and the two factions divided up Libya’s air force between them.
    ...

  13. #273
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    Another excellent piece by Arnaud Delalande:
    It Sure Seems Like Egypt and the UAE Are at War In Libya
    On Sept. 25, 2016, the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council, or BRSC — a group with ties to Al Qaeda — published photos of air strikes that hit the Ganfouda area of Benghazi in eastern Libya. The group’s Sraya media arm claimed that a drone belonging to the United Arab Emirates was responsible for the bombings.

    And a week earlier in mid-September 2016, fighters from Ibrahim Jodran’s so-called Petroleum Facilities Guard claimed that either Egypt or the UAE bombed them near the town of Ras Lanuf, killing five fighters involved in a counterattack on Libyan National Army positions.

    The reports are just the latest in a growing body of evidence that Egypt and the UAE are directly intervening in the Libya conflict.
    ...

  14. #274
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    Another of Delalande's features on air warfare over Libya - and let's hope this might not develop into a pattern: A Fierce Air War Over Libya’s Oil Fields Has Killed Innocent Civilians
    On Sept. 20, 2016, unidentified aircraft struck a park at Nina Agricultural Project in Sokna, part of the Al Jufrah district 125 miles south of Sirte in Libya. The bombing killed at least seven people and injured as many as 20 others.

    The two main government factions — the Libyan National Army and militia forces affiliated with the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord — both denied involvement#… and accused each other of orchestrating the strike.

    So who bombed Al Jufrah?
    ************

    BTW, two days ago, a pair of AdA (French AF) did not fly an air strike on Libya. They were also not accompanied by any KC-135FR tanker.

    Why do I say it this way? Because official Paris is insistent that its military and intel are NOT involved in Libya, and is strictly curbing any related reporting. In spring this year, a prominent reporter working for Le Monde (which remains one of most influential media outlets in France), reported something else. She was immediately put under all sorts of charges and investigations. When Arnaud Delalande and me prepared a big report on French, US and other (primarily those of two Libyan air forces) aerial ops over Libya for the premier volume of the new (bi-monthly) magazine Airpower, the publisher (former military helicopter pilot) got all sorts of problems with authorities. In essence, the French MOD told him they're going to put him under investigation, and practically ban him from all air bases, all official events, and all sorts of official contacts - 'just for the start'.

    The 'France-related' part of that story (especially the part detailing early air strikes flown from N'Djamena IAP and Faya Largeau, with involved Rafales IFR-ing from USAF KC-135s over north-eastern Niger), thus came out 'much softened', and including all sorts of 'could be, would be, should be'...
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    Last edited by CrowBat; 10-07-2016 at 07:17 AM.

  15. #275
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    Default Sending Rome a message

    We tend IMHO to overlook Italy's role and knowledge of Libya, so the kidnapping of two Italians and another was missed here. This short report from the Quilliam Foundation, with two Libyan authors is interesting:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/bl...as-hidden-war/

    Italy already has a military hospital @ Misrata, with a reinforced company of paratroopers for security; they arrived in late September by invitation.

    Update 5th November 2016: both Italians have been released.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-05-2016 at 02:41 PM. Reason: 64,713v. Add update.
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  16. #276
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    Default Failing Libya

    A political overview by Alison Pargeter, a SME on Libya:https://www.opendemocracy.net/alison...failing-libya?

    She ends with:
    For all the peace process of the past year, therefore, Libya is still caught in the bind of the same old forces that brought the country to its knees in the summer of 2014. Thus while Libya may be on its way to defeating Daesh, it is certainly no nearer to peace, let alone to the civil state that so many dreamed of when they rose up against Qadhafin in 2011.

    While no one is pretending that dealing with Libya is easy, the international community should at least be asking itself some difficult questions about the role it has played.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-19-2016 at 11:16 AM. Reason: 65,598v 900 in a week.
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  17. #277
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    Default This is madness

    A short article by Peter Oborne, which includes a British 'double game':
    Meanwhile, it is important to remember that despite its official pronouncements, even the British government – for all its statements of support – is playing a double game.In recent months, British special forces have reportedly been fighting on the same side as the GNA against IS in Sirte.
    Meanwhile, as Middle East Eye revealed, British special forces have also based themselves in a French-led multinational military operations centre in Benghazi supporting renegade Libyan general Khalifa Haftar.
    Haftar is on the opposite side to the GNA government in Tripoli.
    British forces are on both sides at once as the GNA attempts to assert control over Libya. This reflects a shambolic British policy lacking integrity, strategy or coherence.
    Link:http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns...rce-1979201566


    He also refers to a new iCG Report on Libya: The Libyan Political Agreement: Time for a Reset and summary he writes:
    This beautifully researched document is replete with distressing details about the failure of the Sarraj government, revealing for example that no cabinet meeting has taken place since last June.
    Link to ICG Report:https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-e...ent-time-reset
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-05-2016 at 02:51 PM. Reason: 67,455v
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  19. #279
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    Default Far from Mosul, Islamic State close to defeat in Libya's Sirte

    A rare report on this urban conflict, now in it's sixth month:http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lib...-idUKKBN13D226

    Not encouraging for other cities.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-19-2016 at 10:48 PM. Reason: 69,237v
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    The article points out two things. The first, which most ground troops already know is that urban warfare is a slow and messy fight that produces high casualties. The second, known by some, is that ISIL is producing some top rate fighters that are not only tenacious, but highly skilled in both conventional and unconventional warfare. Whether you want to refer to Mao's phases of guerrilla warfare, or just use common sense, this article points out how these conflicts ebb and flow in intensity.

    Those are the knowns. The unknowns, are where the fighters that escaped this particular battle (but also others such as Mosul) will go next? Will they be able to generate another 5th column in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, or even Europe? Will they be able to convert this 5th column into a conventional like force that hold ground? Will they able to transfer the skills they have learned and procure the necessary military materials to create major havoc elsewhere? Will western nation police forces be able to cope with this threat? Regarding the material aspect, I think that will be their major challenge. These violent movements have made substantial progress in war torn areas where military and munitions were readily available (Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, Somalia). That isn't the case in most of the West, so logistic challenges may limit the major threat to what many refer to as the arc of instability. However, that doesn't prevent them from conducting simple or sophisticated terrorist attacks in the West.

    While the through, by, and with approach has it merits, if we're honest with ourselves, we must admit it also has its shortfalls. When the West chooses to depend upon surrogates or partner nation (if you can call Libya a nation anymore) forces they have opted to take a slow approach. This often based on the perception that it reduces risk to Western forces, but it doesn't take into account risk to achieving the mission.

    Increasingly time matters. Time creates opportunities for adversaries, whether it is Russia in Syria, Iran in Iraq, or the weakening of a coalition before the conventional clearing operations are over. When we consider whether to use a unilateral, combined, or enabled (working through partners) approach, we shouldn't automatically default to one approach is better than the other, or that effective COIN efforts take 10 or more years. We need to consider what our aims strategic aims are, and assess the merit of each course of action, to include mixed approaches, to achieve that aim.

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