The new Libya: various aspects

[Fuchs]

Its future value could have a strong influence in reconstruction (and debt settlements for Libyan state)

Their external debt is most likely not documented in their national currency, but in USD or another currency.

Most of their trading will be in foreign currencies as well, so their domestic currency value/exchange rate has little bearing on their trading.

The government will draw most of its revenues from oil after a short (1-3 years) period of establishing itself and re-establishing regular oil trade. There's thus no real reason for using the printing press for revenues, and as a consequence the printing press is unlikely to be an inflation driver in the medium term (many forms of demand might be, though).


Overall I don't agree that their currency will have a strong influence on their future. It'll likely be a quite boring and ordinary background thing.

[Rex Brynen]

Do you have any information about Central Bank and banking system?

I'm afraid I don't know. I do know that the UN reconstruction team had concerns about currency stabilization and liquidity shortages, as well as longer terms concerns about corruption and financial management.

[Graycap]

Their external debt is most likely not documented in their national currency, but in USD or another currency.

Most of their trading will be in foreign currencies as well, so their domestic currency value/exchange rate has little bearing on their trading.

That's not correct Fuchs. Especially in the italian trading experience.

You have to understand that Italy has a very long history of commercial trade with Libya and this history has witnessed different phases and the presence of a big number of very small little actors in both side of th bargain.
Small business selling small business buying.

In this framework the problem of libyan dinar conversion has played a role. Sometime a very lucrative role. Payments made in nature could open the way to make great business. During embargo there was a complex system to make receive payments.

Think only about this problem: there are big enterprises that have credits for million of dinars. The dinar had a different value in black market and official trade. The credits are from the eighties and are part of the strategic agreement signed in 2008. In the eighties there were libyan dinar for external payments and dinar only for internal use.
The conversio that will be applied will make a very relevant role in the evaluation of these credits/debts (those could become billion of euros!!)

Thanks Rex for reply

[Fuchs]

6.5 million inhabitants, annual GDP equivalent 75 billion USD.

You're talking about peanuts that won't change the overall picture.
I was talking about the medium term and stand by my somewhat educated guess.

[TDB]

There has been a great deal of spontaneous community organization in Libya, which has offset much of the institutional disorganization (or even lack of institutions, which was a hallmark of Qadaffi's rule). There is also a widespread sense of 'ownership" of the revolution by the people themselves--a sharp contrast to US regime change in Iraq. Most of the "looting" has involved carting off souvenirs from Qaddafi palaces or regime security installations.

In Benghazi, I was struck by 1) how little formal SSR had been undertaken, although by that point the NTC had been in control for 5 months--most of the policing was still volunteer; 2) how well it worked--the place seemed considerably safer than a great many non-conflict cities.

Unlike Egypt (or even Iraq), the regular civil police do not seem to have been associated in the popular mind with domestic repression, which undoubtedly will help in reconstituting them.

Thank you very much for this insight. I think as you point out this idea of ownership is key. Is it odd that the more I watch event unfold in Lybia the more I think "I'd really like to visit". There is something about the people, whether it is simply romanticism, I don't know. Lybians just strike me as a nice bunch of people, the Gaddafi clan aside. Tripoli, from its skyline at least looks to be booming (honestly no pun intended). So hurry up NTC I want to come on holiday.

[Surferbeetle]

Post Q-Daffy led Libya has a number of issues, some of which have been covered in the thread to date and some which haven’t. Q-Daffy’s ability to run, hide, and engage the international and Libyan audiences on a number of miso themes speaks to a certain level of internal and external support. Any follow on government will be judged, strength wise, on their ability/inability to capture/judge/exile/kill him and his network. A process limited to the battlefield runs the risk of calling into question the follow on governments commitment to individuals, institutions, and governments being held accountable to law (Sharia, or otherwise). Q-Daffy’s willingness/encouragement to turn off the potable ‘Great Man-Made River’ and disrupt electrical and fuel deliveries speaks to his disregard for the welfare of the people of Libya while simultaneously speaking to the follow-on government’s inability to provide for basic human needs for noncombatants. Where is the GCC or similar with a desalinization plan? Although political instability and certain ideas may be considered catching, while actions taken in Libya might even be judged by actions not taken in Syria, nonetheless there are still a few days of Ramadan left and one would hope the spirit of the times would lead to regional efforts to provide some level of basics to noncombatants. Bodies found of late seem to point to retributionary killings and politically motivated assassinations. Perhaps it not too early to think about, as Rex mentions in a previous post, policing. Partnering with existing forces, vetting, training, and supervising police forces are very political activities that ideally would have civilian (not military if it can be avoided) primacy. Ideally the follow on government needs to provide just policing service; however previous multinational/regional policing models used in Panama, Haiti, Somalia, Cambodia, and El Salvador might be something to look at. The Economist 2011 world in figures provides a figure of 93.2 billion USD for Libya’s 2008 GDP. This estimate covers the legal economy and does not address the magnitude nor the incentives of the illicit economy. As always, there are many more items to think about, but from my armchair the overall trend at this time points toward Libyan civilian primacy being needed to solve Libyan problems.

As to control of Q-Daffy’s armaments, open source reporting seems to indicate that the ‘international community’ have taken the lessons of Iraq to heart; which is a very good thing to see.

[Graycap]

Thank you very much for this insight. I think as you point out this idea of ownership is key. Is it odd that the more I watch event unfold in Lybia the more I think "I'd really like to visit". There is something about the people, whether it is simply romanticism, I don't know. Lybians just strike me as a nice bunch of people, the Gaddafi clan aside. Tripoli, from its skyline at least looks to be booming (honestly no pun intended). So hurry up NTC I want to come on holiday.

Been there a number of times (everytime in gheddafian era) and I know a good number of old hands that have lived there before 1970.

Before Gheddafy Libya was something very similar to a little unknown paradise. Libya people are very friendly and with oil there was no need at all to work. The agricuture was very rich (the best fruit that I ever ate) and life was easy. Libya relied heavily on the west.

Libya without Gheddafy could have become a sort of Qatar or Dubai in the Mediterrean. A paradise fo us italians (and for the Libyans first of all)

With G everything changed. Sometime it could be quite dangerous to be in Tripoli. No tourism was allowed until a few years ago and you were followed from the first minute you arrived.

Anyway let's hope for the future. If you go to Libya don't forget to visit the roman antiquities. Something unforgettable.

[Rex Brynen]

I'm not sure why we're even discussing post-Qaddafi Libya... apparently the whole thing was faked in an al-Jazeera TV studio in Qatar.

Try googling "Libya + fake + Qatar" and you'll see how much play this particular conspiracy theory is getting on the fringes of the internet. Russia Today carried the story too in its Spanish language broadcasts.. which may explain why Chavez claims the Libyan revolution was a hoax too.

[SWJ Blog]

US Tactics in Libya May Be a Model for Other Efforts

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[davidbfpo]

A interesting commentary from RUSI's main expert on the action taken; which ends with:

In Paris, David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy will find themselves feted by the Libyans. They may even find time for a few self-congratulatory moments. But growing powers have growing vetoes. Further down the road, it is these states that will write the rules of the game and set its tacit expectations. Advocates of full-throated humanitarian intervention should not be surprised if Libya is one of its last hurrahs.

Apart from the theme some interesting points, e.g. the Chinese and Indian presence.

[davidbfpo]

A long title 'Post-Gaddafi Libya: a police force trained by Britain; and an Islamist militia backed by Qatar' and just a short article:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ro...cked-by-qatar/

A little detail on the UK's help:http://www.tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=6287

[davidbfpo]

Now you may ask who is this man, who is the commander of the Tripoli Brigade?

Mr Belhaj was a leader in the now dissolved Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which sent fighters to Iraq and Afghanistan. He said he was detained in 2004 in Malaysia and sent to a secret prison in Thailand, where CIA agents tortured him. Then he was sent by the United States to Libya and sentenced to death by Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi's regime, before his release last year.

Libya is a moderate Muslim country. We call and hope for a civil country that is ruled by the law, which we were not allowed to enjoy under Gaddafi. The religious identity of the country will be left up to the people to choose. The February 17th revolution is the Libyan people's revolution, and no-one can claim it, neither secularists nor Islamists. No-one can make Libya suffer any more under any one ideology, or any one regime.

Link:http://www.scotsman.com/news/Rebel-l...?articlepage=1

The story is on the web, with many similar versions; Wikipedia has a very slim entry.

[Bob's World]

This is what I have been telling people on this forum for years. Not the details of our furtive actions in our threat-centric, intel-driven, CT-focused approach to the attacks of 9-11; as I have no real interest or much knowledge of such actions. But rather in the nature of who these men are that we lump under broad labels, such as "AQ" or "Terrorist" and why it is they challenge governance at home, and why it is they travel to engage Western powers in ways that they hope will ultimately facilitate the changes they seek at home.

The Intel community and the ideological fear mongers, as well as the COINdinistas and Nation builders, do not grasp the fundamental, nature of this diverse, though common in many ways, problem across the Middle East. This problem is neither complex nor wicked. it is a fundamental quest for good governance and the very universal and unalienable rights we proclaim so boldly in our own Declaration of Independence.

This is a transition to be guided and mentored, but not one to resist and suppress. To take a leadership role on the former validates our professed principles and makes us stronger and more influential. To take a leadership role in the latter places a stain on our heritage, burns our influence faster than Wall Street burns our investments, and leaves us weaker.

We must evolve our own understanding and decide what kind of nation we want to be. Then we must act to be that nation. I understand our approaches to date and the rationale behind them, but I do not agree with them.

[Fuchs]

Been there a number of times (everytime in gheddafian era) and I know a good number of old hands that have lived there before 1970.

Before Gheddafy Libya was something very similar to a little unknown paradise. Libya people are very friendly and with oil there was no need at all to work. The agricuture was very rich (the best fruit that I ever ate) and life was easy. Libya relied heavily on the west.

Libya without Gheddafy could have become a sort of Qatar or Dubai in the Mediterrean. A paradise fo us italians (and for the Libyans first of all)

With G everything changed. Sometime it could be quite dangerous to be in Tripoli. No tourism was allowed until a few years ago and you were followed from the first minute you arrived.

Anyway let's hope for the future. If you go to Libya don't forget to visit the roman antiquities. Something unforgettable.

Sounds like a lot of whit-washing to me, since oil prices did only rise beyond "ridiculously low" in 1973 and Libya in 1970 was therefore hardly close to paradise. On top of that, its oil production peak in the late 60's was unsustainable.

[Graycap]

Sorry Fuchs but it seems that we are talking about different issues.

I was only trying to communicate my personal experiences to a forum member curious about Libya and wondering about traveling there.
I Know Libya and Libyans first hand (do you? your impressions?) and the only thing that I can speak of is what I have seen and heard.

I confirm: Libya has been a wonderful place to live and do business until 1970 and partially until 1978. Very dangerous after 1982. This has nothing to do with statistics about oil production that didn't have a direct impact in Libyan life (anyway never put your faith in anything about Libya that you don't know firsthand).
Everything related to oil was separately managed in Libya and it was pretty much a private Gheddafy deal masquerated as nationale enterprises.
THe impact of oil in everyday life has been through an incredibly mismanaged public social wealth distribution absolutely disconnected from oil price and market fluctuations since only a relative little fraction of oil income had that use. The other was personal Gheddafy business. Maybe oneday it will be known how many journalists, politicians, bankers he has simply bought.

[Fuchs]

So you did not speak about oil, huh?

Before Gheddafy Libya was something very similar to a little unknown paradise. Libya people are very friendly and with oil there was no need at all to work. The agricuture was very rich (the best fruit that I ever ate) and life was easy. Libya relied heavily on the west.

(my emphasis)


I guess you can understand how that 'misunderstanding' came into being.

[Graycap]

Pissing contest? No thanks.

I've my experiences and my knowledge and I've tried to share them with the limits given by the use of a language that is not my native one. That's all.
Too laborious, given my poor english, to try to explain my words when primary intentions don't seem to be constructive. You have quoted my words but I don't understand where I should find inconsistencies (pls let me in my ignorance... )

Anyway, reading this amazing forum, I've come to know your nickname for one of the most interesting and non-conventional member. For these reasons let me sketch you very little aspects: a country of minus than 3 million people with very little expectations and very friendly (the only arabs italian speaking and doing it very well...), no real taxation thanks to oil, senior levels run by European and Americans, no central power to speak of (and maintain through work and taxes) until the King has his "toys" in the europeans casinos, absolute cosmopolitan (a very big jew community for example), people work just as they found useful, fantastic weather and historic legacies of roman era that only Italy has.

Name it as you like and let's knock it off.

If I remember correctly one of the forum member used to have a citation in his signature that sounded something like that: real knowledge is experience.
Amen.

[AdamG]

China offered huge stockpiles of weapons to Colonel Moammar Gadhafi during the final months of his regime, according to papers that describe secret talks about shipments via Algeria and South Africa.

Documents obtained by The Globe and Mail show that state-controlled Chinese arms manufacturers were prepared to sell weapons and ammunition worth at least $200-million to the embattled Col. Gadhafi in late July, a violation of United Nations sanctions.

Appendices stapled to the memo, and scattered nearby, show the deadly items under discussion: truck-mounted rocket launchers; fuel-air explosive missiles; and anti-tank missiles, among others. Perhaps most controversially, the Chinese apparently offered Col. Gadhafi’s men the QW-18, a surface-to-air missile small enough for a soldier to carry on his shoulder – roughly similar to a U.S. Stinger, capable of bringing down some military aircraft.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2152875/

[Backwards Observer]

“Algeria played an important role, helping Gadhafi get his Chinese weapons,” Mr. Badi said. “That’s okay,” he added, with a mischievous grin, “because we will send weapons back for the revolutions in their countries.”

China offered Gadhafi huge stockpiles of arms: Libyan memos - Globe and Mail - Sept 3, 2011.

...

The CIA worked closely with Moammar Gadhafi's intelligence services in the rendition of terror suspects to Libya for interrogation, according to documents seen Saturday by the AP, co-operation that could spark tensions between Washington and Libya's new rulers.

Documents show close ties between CIA, Gadhafi regime - Globe and Mail - Sept 3, 2011.

...

"America played an important role, helping Gadhafi maintain his security apparatus," said an unnamed rebel source, "But that's okay..."

[M-A Lagrange]

Gaddafi 'Tracked Heading For Libyan Border' Colonel Muammar Gaddafi was last tracked heading for Libya's southern border, the man leading the hunt for the deposed leader has said.
Miltary official Hisham Buhagiar said reports indicated Col Gaddafi may have been in the region of the southern village of Ghwat three days ago.
The village is some 190 miles north of the border with Niger.

"He's out of Bani Walid I think. The last tracks, he was in the Ghwat area. People saw the cars going in that direction," Mr Buhagiar said.

"We have it from many sources that he's trying to go further south, towards Chad or Niger."
The news follows reports that some of Col Gaddafi's top officials, including security chief Mansour Daw, were riding in a convoy of vehicles which has already entered Niger.
Col Gaddafi's spokesman Moussa Ibrahim insisted the ousted dictator remained in Libya and that he and his sons were ready to fight to the death.
US officials also said they doubted Col Gaddafi had crossed the border yet and urged Niger to detain any senior officials from the regime.
US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta has said that, while Col Gaddafi is still on the run, there is no clue of his whereabouts.
Meanwhile anti-Gaddafi troops appear poised to take one of the colonel's last remaining strongholds by force after talks with tribal elders broke down.
The National Transitional Council (NTC) had been in negotiations for a peaceful handover of Bani Walid, currently occupied by armed Gaddafi loyalists.
But Sky's Emma Hurd said tribesmen had apparently come under fire from pro-Gaddafi fighters as they returned from the talks with a message of peace.

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16064185

According to French newpapers, Burkina Faso denied they welcomed or might welcome Mr Gaddafi.
French news papers also report a convoy of approximately 10 vehicles with gold, $ and euros crossing the Niger border yesterday. NCT is claiming this is stolen reserves from Syrte central bank.

"Tard hier soir, dix véhicules chargés d'or, d'euros et de dollars sont passés au Niger via Djoufra avec l'aide de touaregs d'un tribu nigérienne", a déclaré Fathi Badja, président de la commission pour les affaires politiques et internationales du CNT. Ces richesses auraient été volées à l'agence de la Banque centrale libyenne à Syrte, selon le CNT.

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/un-convoi-l...161030932.html
Late yesterday evening, 10 vehicules loaded with gold, euros and dollars passed to Niger through Djoufra with nigerian touareg tribe support, reported Fathi Badja, the president of NCT political and international affairs commission. According to NCT, those values might have been stolen from Libyan central bank in Syrte.


The hunt is still on.