AQ-Central to relocate?

[davidbfpo]

After the latest drone strike success, with the death of AQ's operational head, one Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, David Ignatius in WaPo's article has some interest and ends with:

Atiyah had told his boss that this U.S. "intelligence war," as bin Laden had called it, had made it nearly impossible for al-Qaeda to move, communicate, recruit or train in the tribal areas of Pakistan. They had discussed whether al-Qaeda should move its headquarters to someplace safer. That relocation seems more likely, now that the man who anchored the group's presence in Pakistan is dead.

Link:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...ls_111116.html

BBC News article on the killing:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14695569

SWC has several threads on related themes; including Clint's surveys, which IIRC asked which part of AQ will gain prominence?

Perhaps we can discuss this matter?

I have two questions. Will AQ-Central relocate? Note they have been in the FATA since 2001 and across the Durand Line, in Afghanistan, for longer and could be described as embedded.

Where will AQ-Central relocate to? AQAP seems to be at the fore, in Somalia or Yemen.

[Surferbeetle]

Perhaps we can discuss this matter?

I have two questions. Will AQ-Central relocate? Note they have been in the FATA since 2001 and across the Durand Line, in Afghanistan, for longer and could be described as embedded.

Where will AQ-Central relocate to? AQAP seems to be at the fore, in Somalia or Yemen.

Their business model in general seems to lean more towards a nomadic than settled way of life, so if pressures are sufficient and sustained why not load up the pickup and head for greener/wilder pastures until the coalition pulls out?

Tribal way of life, Arabic speaking, and low/high tech fusion seems to be the lifestyle ttp's for many. Have no guesses for you regarding Somalia or Yemen...

[Bob's World]

Location is meaningless for such a non-state actor, in fact, all we are really talking here is perhaps the relocation of a few guys making up a leadership node.

It is our own fixation on efforts to contain or defeat this threat in some certain location that makes such an announcement seem news worthy.

We "defeat" AQ when we out-compete them for influence with the broad populace that forms their base of support; and when we facilitate the reasonable evolution of internal governance issues in so many states that lead to the growth of the insurgent conditions that AQ taps into; and when we similarly evolve Western interactions with those governments to a less meddling manner that is perceived as less disruptive of natural, accepted perceptions of legitimacy.

We do not "defeat" AQ by killing one head guy; or by making any one particular location too dangerous to operate from.

[Dayuhan]

We "defeat" AQ when we out-compete them for influence with the broad populace that forms their base of support; and when we facilitate the reasonable evolution of internal governance issues in so many states that lead to the growth of the insurgent conditions that AQ taps into; and when we similarly evolve Western interactions with those governments to a less meddling manner that is perceived as less disruptive of natural, accepted perceptions of legitimacy.

We do not "defeat" AQ by killing one head guy; or by making any one particular location too dangerous to operate from.

AQ draws what support it has from "populaces" from widespread resentment toward foreign intervention in Muslim lands. Foreign attempts to gain influence with Muslim populace are as likely to exacerbate that resentment as to alleviate it, unless they are very subtle... and as said many times before, subtlety is not our strong point. Our attempts to gain influence will always be interpreted (reasonably) as attempts to advance our own interests, and are likely to generate resistance, not acceptance.

[Bill Moore]

We can defeat AQ by killing off its intellectual and idealist heads and should continue to do so, what we can't defeat is the idealism associated with Islamist radicalization. "We" will not defeat that by out competing the Islamists for influence, that competition must come from within Islam's ranks. We have every right to defend ourselves in the meantime, and we won't accomplish much in the way of disrupting planned attacks with development and information operations, that is a myth we have perpetuated and have spent billions on for all the wrong reasons.

Will AQ move? First you have to define AQ, in case I assume you're talking about the leadership core, which has a long history of moving (Pakistan, Sudan, Afghanistan, back to Pakistan). What is important to note in my view is they never selected a failed state to establish their safe haven, because failed states will not provide any degree of safehaven. They sought some degree of protection from their host government (Sudan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan). Yemen on the verge of being a failed state, Somalia is a failed state, so I'm not sure what options are available. Iran could provide some degree of safehaven, but then Iran would control their operations and basically assume control of their activities (I suspect), so that is probably low on the list.

Pakistan may be tough, but it may also be their best bet, and indicate AQ as we knew it is about to go extinct, but that doesn't mean we will see the end of Islamist terrorism.

[omarali50]

If they relocate to Yemen or Somali, its a significant victory, not a meaningless change of "nodes". There is no great threat from a group of aged teenage fantasists now and there was none in the past...what was a threat and may be a threat in the future is an area connected to a reasonably developed state (aka Pakistan) where fanatical Islamists can (and did) enjoy state support and patronage and both sides infiltrate and use each other (state and Islamist nutcases) with the potential to carry out major operations, with relatively sophisticated training and planning and logistical support (Mumbai), with the eventual possibility that the state may become one with the fantasists....if that threat is gone from pakistan, then its pretty much over....someday, a new threat like that may emerge in Egypt or Algeria or wherever, but not in Somalia or Yemen...they can have somalia or yemen and provide employment for special forces types and contractor types and mercenaries and would be members of the foreign legion and drone operators and whatnot. Not a serious threat to the US or to regional peace or to oil supplies or to anything of great importance.
PS; need I say that this is a hypothetical post. I dont think the threat is gone from Pakistan...