Quote Originally Posted by Culpeper View Post
They lack a single command and control or even leadership. The insurgency is as messed up or even more messed up than the counterinsurgency. The, "cool, calculating, willing to learn...", insurgents are the ones I'm most interested in as far as casualty rate is concerned. For the time being, I'm beginning to think their greatest threat is sectarian and not Coalition forces. It is as if the insurgents are fighting on several fronts. It is actually much worse than the Battle for Baghdad back in Apr-03. They put up a good fight but they were never under a single command and control and were never able to cross communicate between different commands. The ones that stood and fought were the Republican Guards, Saddam Fedayeen, Syrian mercenaries, and an odd and very large group of what appeared to be young Arabic college students. They got slaughtered. This group later became the core of insurgency. Their strategy hasn't changed much. Different groups all acting independently with their own goals. And what about their leadership? Could it be like the Confederacy of the American Civil War? They didn't have the luxury of losing commanders with competent replacements. We may not be making the same mistake of "body count" policy but we may be going to the extreme of not reporting anything as far as the enemy is concerned. This may actually be aiding the enemy with propaganda for recruitment. But even recruitment isn't on a national level as far as Iraq is concerned. It's the Jihad platform and nothing more. Not very effective and causes them to eat their own young. I'm also referring to the Kurds and Shiites that have a bone to pick with the Sunni minority, who are fighting for their lives. With Muslim factions branding each other as infidels.
Allow me to disagree... Attacks with RPGs, AKs and pick-ups on M1 Abrams columns I see like a desperate move by crazy dictator trying to delay enemy advance and buy more time for himself rather then real defense strategy (ea Hitler's use of kids in defending the Berlin)... What's happened after is more important.

To elaborate my way of thinking, I will remind you of deep and long relations with Ex-Yugoslavian Army (either thru technology or strategic co-operation) and concept of Yugoslavian (next) partisan/guerilla war... Let enemy deep in the country (either Russian forces thru Bulgaria and Hungary or Romania; or NATO troops from Italy and/or Austria or Greece), go low in start, reorganize, and use guerilla war and hidden stash of weapons, fuel, factories, hidden network of fox holes, trenches and bunkers in the middle of the country...

Remember, just before US-led invasion Iraqi generals went to Serbia (then Serbian generals to Iraq) to share knowledge about air defense and how did Serbia manage to shoot down stealth bomber... Also, please have in mind, that Saddam was never a Muslim! He supported Serbia against Bosnian Muslims and Russia against Chechnya Muslims. So, to imply that he is leader or factor in Sunni Muslim uprising, and therefore to use same control and command, or tactical plans, just don't hold water. What US-led invasion faced in start its different animal today. And, they are learning quickly.

Comparing with last year, everybody can see big change in tactics and whole concept of Resistance. "Martyrdom seekers" are less and less out there and more and more real guerilla force with strategic use of suicide (less) and car-bomb or IEDs (more) attacks instead of attacks just for the sake of "martyr" attacks.

Insisting that they lack of "single command and control or even leadership" is proving that they are not that strong or dangerous, it's simple not true. Please look at examples from Chechnya, Bosnia, and Afghanistan (against Russia)... For YEARS fighters there lack single command and control and leadership and yet manage to wage good fights and war. And to win mind you... In those Chechen commanders interviews (so precious from tactical stand point!) Chechen commanders said by themselves that they disorganization help them to win!

US Military its big machine and it's trained and indoctrinated to fight established hierarchy/structure of other armies. You are mentioning Republican Guards, Saddam Fedayeen, other volunteers... But that was then and they failed. MSC or IAI today are different and better organized and motivated. And their strategy did change. They have huge pool of people to recruit from and they are taking from them how much they need in given time. Amassing huger numbers will lead them being easy identified and destroyed faster. Instead, they have lesser but constant force to attack and they go back and refresh they troops when and how much it's needed. This is better for them.

Don't let factors like "they don't recruit in huge numbers" or "they have opposite ideas and strategy" blind you to lessons from Afghanistan, Somalia, Chechnya or Bosnia... All that "factors' was there to but yet they manage to push all that on side for higher cause and they let those differences to lay low until they get rid of joint enemy. What happened after, it different story.


PS. I am sorry for delaying so much to answer you and I do apologize on length of this post.