Life expectancy of an insurgent in Iraq

[Culpeper]

I'm curious if anyone has any idea what the average life expectancy of a typical insurgent in Iraq would be. I'm not referring to the part timers. The ones the that just want to get into the fight if one erupts in their neighborhood. These poor bastards just die senseless tragic deaths or end up getting permanently maimed for life because they want to fire into the air and brag about it later. I'm just wondering about the hardcore fundamentalist that has been trained, sent up to the FEBA (if you want to call it that), and starts to engage the enemy.

[Culpeper]

Well, I waited until at least 75 people opened the post. Our intel must be short on this data. So, with that adage, we can't really state that they are easily replacing their losses? That seems to be a constant argument in favor of the insurgents fighting coalition forces. I know there is some documentation out there if someone would point them out to me I will surely read them. Thanks ahead of time.

[jcustis]

If we look at Zarqawi's lifespan from the time he first became known, and divide that by a factor of 4, it's probably as good an estimate as any other.

Besides the ones that tried to stand and fight in Fallujah, we'd probably be surprised at the longevity of these guys. Their "engagements" are very relative, as they most certainly don't join the fight and stay engaged for any length of time before it is time for rest and refit.

[Culpeper]

That sounds like heavy losses on their parts. I'm thinking of the beginning of WWII when the Japanese eventually lost so much of their best pilots that their training kept getting shorter and shorter until their pilots were about useless. Which in turn, resulted in the introduction of the Kamikaze pilots. So, as the hardcore insurgent replacements become less trained and less effective they will step up suicidal attacks and so forth to make up for the shortfall out of even more desperation. That is if we keep up the current pressure or even increase it.

[aktarian]

Well, I waited until at least 75 people opened the post. Our intel must be short on this data. So, with that adage, we can't really state that they are easily replacing their losses? That seems to be a constant argument in favor of the insurgents fighting coalition forces. I know there is some documentation out there if someone would point them out to me I will surely read them. Thanks ahead of time.

Since attacks are not on the decline then insurgents are either replacing their losses without much trouble or are getting more effect from fewer people.

Neither option is good.

[Sarajevo071]

Or, they are not getting killed like many people think or want them to die… During the war in Bosnia big number of veterans from the first day survived after 3 1/2 - 4 years of fighting which was much worst of what we see in Iraq today.

But, that just my humble opinion.

[Culpeper]

You bring up a good point with Bosnia. Are we blowing Iraq out of proportion? I read today that up to 150,000 Iraqis have been killed by the insurgents. I tend to believe that a good portion of those killed were members of various insurgencies anyway. But in Bosnia, soldiers were trained to fight and survive in their best interest. These morons in Iraq seem to not care. The objective in a firefight is to die in a spectacular fashion. That's about all. They do things that are really stupid and have caused even unexperienced American forces the ability to chuckle at their stupid suicidal tactics in the midst of frightening firefights. And these are the bad guys that have so-called training.

By QAIS AL-BASHIR, Associated Press Writer Thu Nov 9, 1:26 PM ET

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Nearly simultaneous car bombs struck two markets in predominantly Shiite areas of Baghdad on Thursday, killing at least 16 people.
Iraq's health minister said about 150,000 have been killed by insurgents since the war started, giving the government's first overall casualty estimate.

[Sarajevo071]

I believe people making big mistakes thinking that jihadi movement is full of “stupid” or “suicidal” people. I truly believe that one should never make mistake of disrespecting his enemy.

But, looking from outside it seams that all of them just running in open doing nothing expect wishing for martyrdom. But, like many knows, Insurgency in Iraq is mix and complex group of people with different ideas and different strategies how to get them fulfill.

I remember watching that PBS documentary about Iraqi Insurgency and short interview with some journalist who was talking about some guy from SA came to defend Falluja and right there and then he ask journalist if he knows to tell him how to use AK!? People like that will die fast indeed and that is exactly what they looking for. But, not all of them.

Take example of Chechnya… Mujahideens there fight to live so they can fight another day against superior Russian force (at least in numbers and material). Growing number of sophisticated attacks in Iraq can show us that not all of them are “stupid” or wish to commit “suicide” and they do planning, strategy and wish to see the end.

Little note on the end, not many Bosnian was trained in fighting before war started, even that they served terms in army. But they did fight on they best to survive and for they own homes and families...

[aktarian]

You bring up a good point with Bosnia. Are we blowing Iraq out of proportion? I read today that up to 150,000 Iraqis have been killed by the insurgents. I tend to believe that a good portion of those killed were members of various insurgencies anyway. But in Bosnia, soldiers were trained to fight and survive in their best interest. These morons in Iraq seem to not care. The objective in a firefight is to die in a spectacular fashion. That's about all. They do things that are really stupid and have caused even unexperienced American forces the ability to chuckle at their stupid suicidal tactics in the midst of frightening firefights. And these are the bad guys that have so-called training.

I'd say that there are two types of insurgents developing. One are ones you are talking about, wishing to die in spectacular way for martyrdom. Other are what you expect from "professional" insurgents. Cool, calculating, willing to learn, willing to pass the knowledge and not risking his life unnecessary.