EUCOM Economic Analysis - Part I

[Steve the Planner]

The Porter stuff, too, all harkens back to the Structure of Scientific Revolutions: First, there is a new technological driver; Second, the implementation and dispersion.

So many technological drivers emerge from that Toynbee-esque challenge/challenge-faced stuff: sign companies in Iraq, Syria and Turkey that made a living changing out signs while the Arabization movements in the 1990s eliminated Kurdish, Aramean and Christian town names.

Otherwise, who could imagine that anyone could make money making new signs for ancient areas.

I keeping hearing about local clusters, and creative urban centers as if they were something new and magical, but its all just Jane Jacobs and David Bowie (Ch-ch-ch-changes...): that marvelous interaction that occurs between people, communities, ideas, problems and their interactions.

Hanover, MD c. 1995. We built a business park near NSA and BWI Airport, attracted a lot of defense contractors, which attracted more defense contractors, which attracted techno headhunters, then restaurants, hotels, retail, college satellites, which led to Arundel Mills Mall and a new casino under construction. Go figure?

[slapout9]

Link to a BBC interview of a market trader......Euro will crash no matter what because governments do not control the world, big financial institutions like goldman sachs do


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19f...ayer_embedded#!

[Surferbeetle]

Link to a BBC interview of a market trader......Euro will crash no matter what because governments do not control the world, big financial institutions like goldman sachs do


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19f...ayer_embedded#!

Hey Slap,

Good news and bad

For my 0.02 cents Goldman Sachs is the most formidable investment bank on the planet and perhaps in history. 38,300 employees generated 44.28 billion over the trailing twelve months. Their tangible book value [(total tangible assets-liabilities)/# of shares)] is $132.26 vs todays share price of $99.14. This share price is partially indicative, IMO, of the social penalty for crafting investment tools which have exited the investment arena (where it's a no holds barred fight to the death) and into the retail arena (civilians saving for retirement, weddings, and getting car loans, mortgages, small business loans, etc).

Jamie Dimon's complaints about how, that one time when he was walking to his limo from the bank lobby and that snow flake almost hit him and he thought he was going to freeze...uh, I mean about Basel III and the Vickers report are worth watching. These two particular items might be enough to keep the investment banking soldiers from fighting in the retail banking neighborhoods of the civilians. We will see...

Quantum physics (atom bombs) vs newtonian physics (civil engineering) is similar to investment banking vs. retail banking. Gotta have both, but it's generally not a good idea to mix the two...

[slapout9]

Quantum physics (atom bombs) vs newtonian physics (civil engineering) is similar to investment banking vs. retail banking. Gotta have both, but it's generally not a good idea to mix the two...

Yep, we made a big mistake by getting rid of the Glass-Steagall act

[Steve the Planner]

Slap:

That was the beginning of the end.

Steve

[Surferbeetle]

What is a rating agency?, By Rebecca Marston Business reporter, 18 April 2011, BBC News

AAA, Ba3, Ca, CCC... they look like some kind of hyper-active school report.

They are, indeed, a marking system, and one that is designed to inform interested parties.

The letter formations are given to large-scale borrowers, whether companies or governments, and tell the buyers of this debt how likely they are to be able to get it back.

The score card also affects the amount that should be charged by way of return on that borrowing.

These letters have been all over the coverage of the financial impact of the crisis besetting the eurozone.

A change to the score means a change to the amount a borrower must pay its debt-holders, something that can make it more expensive to borrow as investors demand a higher rate of return for taking on more risky debt.

Timeline: The unfolding eurozone crisis, 20 September 2011, BBC News

To join the currency, member states had to qualify by meeting the terms of the treaty in terms of budget deficits, inflation, interest rates and other monetary requirements.

Of EU members at the time, the UK, Sweden and Denmark declined to join the currency.

Since then, there have been many twists and turns for the countries that use the single currency.

Economy enters 'dangerous phase', By Kabir Chibber Business reporter, 20 September 2011, BBC News

Three nations in the eurozone - the 17 nations that use the euro - have been recipients of bailouts as attempts to solve the crisis keep stalling.

Italy became the latest to feel the domino effect of the markets when its debt rating was lowered, the latest in a series of downgrades.

Greece, Spain, the Irish Republic and even Cyprus have also had their ratings cut this year. The future of the euro is being questioned in a way it never has since 1999.

Which countries have fallen, and which are feared to be next?

EU 'faces its greatest challenge' - Jose Manuel Barroso, 28 September 2011, BBC News

The head of the European Commission has told Euro MPs that Greece will stay in the eurozone, but warned that the EU was facing its "greatest challenge".

Appealing for patience over the Greek debt crisis in his annual State of the Union address, Manuel Barroso said: "This is not a sprint but a marathon."

A key obstacle to the payment was removed on Tuesday when the Greek parliament passed a controversial new property tax bill, first announced earlier this month, that aims to boost revenues.

[Surferbeetle]

Greece's debt crisis odyssey, 22 September 2011, BBC News

Binomial tree methods are taught in business school, as an investment tool, for the valuation of options.

Exchange Traded Funds are evolving from simply tracking/replicating a specific index to including leverage.

These tools and others are just like a rifle or pistol in that it's good to keep in mind that they are always loaded, are not toys, and need to be used responsibly.

Financial Engineering TTP's used by 'Quants'

A good, positive, and fun to read, book regarding the world of banking and finance is Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, by Peter L. Bernstein

There are also plenty of examples to keep in mind of how things can quickly go wrong:

TARP

Long Term Capital Management

Kweku Adoboli

Jerome Kerviel