EUCOM Economic Analysis - Part I

[Firn]

So tomorrow is decision-day, at least sort of. While the Greeks won't and can't know what oxi or nai will exactly mean the tensions are obviously running high with both sides pretty much tied. Attacks abound and rumours run while some statements like the one by the radical right-wing defense minister sitting by his radical left-wing pm about the army and internal security. Obviously this quickly used by the oppositions among which are also men and women who fight against the military regime.

The campaigns have been very short and the oxi mobilized quicker then the nai but we will see how gets more votes. Some stunning graphs to remind oneself about the fertile ground Syriza grew in:










All from the RBS Economics twitter feed. Great and important stuff but it doesn't quite show the misery like that photo and it's story:

When he was told at the fourth that he could not withdraw his 120 euros ($133), it was all too much and he collapsed in tears.

The 77-year-old told AFP that he had broken down because he "cannot stand to see my country in this distress".

"That's why I feel so beaten, more than for my own personal problems," Chatzifotiadis said.

[Firn]

So I was wrong and Syriza had not Grexit as Plan B and didn't prepare accordingly. With their bluff called and no more fresh money for the Greek banks with all the obvious consequences national politics in badly constructed groups dominated the European idea and economic logic. And it was far from a pretty sight.

Indeed, the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. It's not war but it certainly wasn't my idea of Europe.


P.S: I'm surprised that hardly anybody compared the recent events with those in Cyprus in which the MPs rejected, among 'a sense of pride', the bailout terms only to cave in to even harder ones later.

As a side note capital controls were expected to last only four days - only to last two years. Iceland with it's five years at that time might have indicated a somewhat longer timeframe...

[Firn]

So I was wrong about being wrong, there was at least some planning towards a Grexit. Perfectly understandable, treason at worst it would have been not to prepare in such fashion. Sadly it was still a path the Greek government didn't want to walk, perhaps fearing the vast pro-euro majority after they managed to isolate themselves completely.

The stand-off which induced the ECB pouring more liquidity into the Greek banks starved of cash by a bank run followed by the painful capitulation did obviously great harm to a very weak economy:



With the market opening and it's 20+% crash those are just numbers which I don't recall seeing in an European country. Shocking stuff and I anticipated worse then most.