I doubt that the possible loss of an investment in one country will provoke China to do something irrational, since they are adapt at calculating risk versus gain. Over time I suspect they'll simply adjust their policies to the point (and not beyond) that their activity will be tolerated by the foreign partner, just as many Western countries have done.

A couple of issues of interest that I didn't see in this discussion yet is that Africa as a whole has become a "Great Game" arena for both India and China, and both are aggressive in their efforts to gain access to needed raw materials, and both have a long history of engagement in Africa, so the competition is shaped by that history and emerging dynamics. In some ways this could play out like the Cold War for African nations if they tend to align with one country or the other.

Another issue is China's apparently unique approach of sending hundreds to thousands of Chinese to build and run their development projects in other countries, such as dams, power plants, and other large infrastructure programs. Not unlike the thousands of Chinese who mitigrated to the U.S. to help build our railroads, but this time they're state sponsored. I'm curious on your thoughts about why they do this? Is it to relieve pressure on the homefront (jobs, population pressure, etc.), or do you think they have a longer term goal of spreading Chinese culture and influence globally? If so, to what end? If this back fires, and multiple nations tell these Chinese expats to return home, could China effectively reintegrate them into their society, or would this lead to instability?

China has plenty of challenges, and while someday in the future they may be an enemy, they are are far from being 10 feet tall. Now they are a strong economic competitor, but even in that regard their methods for competing seem pretty vulnerable to me. If you only look at China from the military perspective you can create an inaccurate picture of their strengths and vulnerabilities, and as Robert Kaplan noted in this book "Monsoon" we tend to view the world based on our map biases. You can't understand China or India without understanding their activities in Africa and the rest of the globe, and you can't understand Africa by just looking at Africa. You'll miss too many big trends that are shaping these areas if you look at them in isolation which the military often does.

A couple of articles on China's foreign aid if you're interested:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201...31102329_4.htm

The Chinese people adhere to the social system and path of development chosen by themselves and will never allow any external forces to interfere in China's internal affairs. China promotes friendly and cooperative relations with all the other countries on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. It does not form alliance with any other country or group of countries, nor does it use social system or ideology as a yardstick to determine what kind of relations it should have with other countries. China respects the right of the people of other countries to independently choose their own social system and path of development, and does not interfere in other countries' internal affairs. It is opposed to the practices of the big bullying the small and the strong oppressing the weak, and to hegemonism and power politics. China calls for settling disputes and conflicts through talks and consultation and by seeking common ground while putting aside differences. It does not impose its own will upon others and acts in the fundamental interests of the Chinese people and the common interests of all peoples throughout the world. China bases its decision on a particular issue according to its merits. Upholding justice, China plays an active and constructive role in international affairs.
Sounds like the first couple of sentences could have been written by George Washington.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-dev...-policy-report

While Chinese involvement in large-scale industrial and infrastructure projects abroad has attracted considerable attention, the report says that industrial aid in particular has decreased in importance since the 1980s, when many developing countries turned to the private sector to finance industrial projects and Beijing began to shift its priorities.


More recently, "China has been increasing its aid for agriculture and grain production in particular", says the report. The white paper also emphasises Beijing's interest in technical training programmes, highlighting that Chinese aid in 2009 paid for 1,324 medical professionals to work at 130 institutions in 57 developing countries, and for 11,185 scholarships to foreign students studying in China.
A lot more at the link, to include a link to their white paper on foreign aid.