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  1. #1
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    Default Litvinenko and the continuation of politics by other means

    Interesting synopsis on Russia.
    - GV
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    All rights reserved.
    --------------------------------------
    From: Strategic Forecasting, Inc

    Russia's Interest in Litvinenko

    By George Friedman

    The recent death of a former Russian intelligence agent, Alexander
    Litvinenko, apparently after being poisoned with polonium-210, raises
    three interesting questions. First: Was he poisoned by the Russian
    Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the KGB? Second: If so,
    what were they trying to achieve? Third: Why were they using
    polonium-210, instead of other poisons the KGB used in the past? In
    short, the question is, what in the world is going on?

    Litvinenko would seem to have cut a traditional figure in Russian and
    Soviet history, at least on the surface. The first part of his life was
    spent as a functionary of the state. Then, for reasons that are not
    altogether clear, he became an exile and a strident critic of the state
    he had served. He published two books that made explosive allegations
    about the FSB and President Vladimir Putin, and he recently had been
    investigating the shooting death of a Russian journalist, Anna
    Politkovskaya, who also was a critic of the Putin government. Clearly,
    he was intent on stirring up trouble for Moscow.

    Russian and Soviet tradition on this is clear: Turncoats like Litvinenko
    must be dealt with, for two reasons. First, they represent an ongoing
    embarrassment to the state. And second, if they are permitted to
    continue with their criticisms, they will encourage other dissidents --
    making it appear that, having once worked for the FSB, you can settle
    safely in a city like London and hurl thunderbolts at the motherland
    with impunity. The state must demonstrate that this will not be
    permitted -- that turncoats will be dealt with no matter what the
    circumstances.

    The death of Litvinenko, then, certainly makes sense from a political
    perspective. But it is the perspective of the old Soviet Union -- not of
    the new Russia that many believed was being born, slowly and painfully,
    with economic opening some 15 years ago. This does not mean, however,
    that the killing would not serve a purpose for the Russian
    administration, in the current geopolitical context.

    For years, we have been forecasting and following the transformation of
    Russia under Vladimir Putin. Putin became president of Russia to reverse
    the catastrophe of the Yeltsin years. Under communism, Russia led an
    empire that was relatively poor but enormously powerful in the
    international system. After the fall of communism, Russia lost its
    empire, stopped being enormously powerful, and became even poorer than
    before. Though Westerners celebrated the fall of communism and the
    Soviet Union, these turned out to be, for most Russians, a catastrophe
    with few mitigating tradeoffs.

    Obviously, the new Russia was of enormous benefit to a small class of
    entrepreneurs, led by what became known as the oligarchs. These men
    appeared to be the cutting edge of capitalism in Russia. They were
    nothing of the sort. They were simply people who knew how to game the
    chaos of the fall of communism, figuring out how to reverse Soviet
    expropriation with private expropriation. The ability to turn state
    property into their own property represented free enterprise only to the
    most superficial or cynical viewers.

    The West was filled with both in the 1990s. Many academics and
    journalists saw the process going on in Russia as the painful birth of a
    new liberal democracy. Western financial interests saw it as a
    tremendous opportunity to tap into the enormous value of a collapsing
    empire. The critical thing is that the creation of value, the
    justification of capitalism, was not what was going on. Rather, the
    expropriation of existing value was the name of the game. Bankers loved
    it, analysts misunderstood it and the Russians were crushed by it.

    It was this kind of chaos into which Putin stepped when he became
    president, and which he has slowly, inexorably, been bringing to heel
    for several years. This is the context in which Litvinenko's death --
    which, admittedly, raises many questions -- must be understood.

    The Andropov Doctrine

    Let's go back to Yuri Andropov, who was the legendary head of the KGB in
    the 1970s and early 1980s, and the man who first realized that the
    Soviet Union was in massive trouble. Of all the institutions in the
    world, the KGB alone had the clearest idea of the condition of the
    Soviet Union. Andropov realized in the early 1980s that the Soviet
    economy was failing and that, with economic failure, it would collapse.
    Andropov knew that the exploitation of Western innovation had always
    been vital to the Soviet economy. The KGB had been tasked with economic
    and technical espionage in the West. Rather than developing their own
    technology, in many instances, the Soviets innovated by stealing Western
    technology via the KGB, essentially using the KGB as an research and
    development system. Andropov understood just how badly the Soviet Union
    needed this innovation and how inefficient the Soviet kleptocracy was.

    Andropov engineered a new concept. If the Soviet Union was to survive,
    it had to forge a new relationship with the West. The regime needed not
    only Western technology, but also Western-style management systems and,
    above all, Western capital. Andropov realized that so long as the Soviet
    Union was perceived as a geopolitical threat to the West and,
    particularly, to the United States, this transfer was not going to take
    place. Therefore, the Soviet Union had to shift its global strategy and
    stop threatening Western geopolitical interests.

    The Andropov doctrine argued that the Soviet Union could not survive if
    it did not end, or at least mitigate, the Cold War. Furthermore, if it
    was to entice Western investment and utilize that investment
    efficiently, it needed to do two things. First, there had to be a
    restructuring of the Soviet economy (perestroika). Second, the Soviet
    system had to be opened to accept innovation (glasnost). Andropov's
    dream for the Soviet Union never really took hold during his lifetime,
    as he died several months after becoming the Soviet leader. He was
    replaced by a nonentity, Konstantin Chernenko, who also died after a
    short time in office. And then there was Mikhail Gorbachev, who came to
    embody the KGB's strategy.

    Gorbachev was clearly perceived by the West as a reformer, which he
    certainly was. But less clear to the West were his motives for reform.
    He was in favor of glasnost and perestroika, but not because he rejected
    the Soviet system. Rather, Gorbachev embraced these because, like the
    KGB, he was desperately trying to save the system. Gorbachev pursued the
    core vision of Yuri Andropov -- and by the time he took over, he was the
    last hope for that vision. His task was to end the Cold War and trade
    geopolitical concessions for economic relations with the West.

    It was a well-thought-out policy, but it was ultimately a desperate one
    -- and it failed. In conceding Central Europe, allowing it to break away
    without Soviet resistance, Gorbachev lost control of the entire empire,
    and it collapsed. At that point, the economic restructuring went out of
    control, and openness became the cover for chaos -- with the rising
    oligarchs and others looting the state for personal gain. But one thing
    remained: The KGB, both as an institution and as a group of individuals,
    continued to operate.

    Saving the System: A Motive for Murder?

    As a young KGB operative, Vladimir Putin was a follower of Andropov.
    Like Andropov, Putin was committed to the restructuring of the Soviet
    Union in order to save it. He was a foot soldier in that process.

    Putin and his FSB faction realized in the late 1990s that, however
    lucrative the economic opening process might have been for some, the net
    effect on Russia was catastrophic. Unlike the oligarchs, many of whom
    were indifferent to the fate of Russia, Putin understood that the path
    they were on would only lead to another revolution -- one even more
    catastrophic than the first. Outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, there
    was hunger and desperation. The conditions for disaster were all there.

    Putin also realized that Russia had not reaped the sought-after payoff
    with its loss of prestige and power in the world. Russia had traded
    geopolitics but had not gotten sufficient benefits in return. This was
    driven home during the Kosovo crisis, when the United States treated
    fundamental Russian interests in the Balkans with indifference and
    contempt. It was clear to Putin by then that Boris Yeltsin had to go.
    And go he did, with Putin taking over.

    <continued in Post #2>

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    Default <continued>

    Putin is a creation of Andropov. In his bones, he believes in the need
    for a close economic relationship with the West. But his motives are not
    those of the oligarchs, and certainly not those of the West. His goal,
    like that of the KGB, is the preservation and reconstruction of the
    Russian state. For Putin, perestroika and glasnost were tactical
    necessities that caused a strategic disaster. He came into office with
    the intention of reversing that disaster. He continued to believe in the
    need for openness and restructuring, but only as a means toward the end
    of Russian power, not as an end in itself.

    For Putin, the only solution to Russian chaos was the reassertion of
    Russian value. The state was the center of Russian society, and the
    intelligence apparatus was the center of the Russian state. Thus, Putin
    embarked on a new, slowly implemented policy. First, bring the oligarchs
    under control; don't necessarily destroy them, but compel them to work
    in parallel with the state. Second, increase Moscow's control over the
    outlying regions. Third, recreate a Russian sphere of influence in the
    former Soviet Union. Fourth, use the intelligence services internally to
    achieve these ends and externally to reassert Russian global authority.

    None of these goals could be accomplished if a former intelligence
    officer could betray the organs of the state and sit in London hurling
    insults at Putin, the FSB and Russia. For a KGB man trained by Andropov,
    this would show how far Russia had fallen. Something would have to be
    done about it. Litvinenko's death, seen from this standpoint, was a
    necessary and inevitable step if Putin's new strategy to save the
    Russian state is to have meaning.

    Anomaly

    That, at least, is the logic. It makes sense that Litvinenko would have
    been killed by the FSB. But there is an oddity: The KGB/FSB have tended
    to use poison mostly in cases where they wanted someone dead, but wanted
    to leave it unclear how he died and who killed him. Poison traditionally
    has been used when someone wants to leave a corpse in a way that would
    not incur an autopsy or, if a normal autopsy is conducted, the real
    cause of death would not be discovered (as the poisons used would
    rapidly degrade or leave the body). When the KGB/FSB wanted someone
    dead, and wanted the world to know why he had been killed -- or by whom
    -- they would use two bullets to the brain. A professional hit leaves no
    ambiguity.

    The use of polonium-210 in this case, then, is very odd. First, it took
    a long time to kill Litvinenko -- giving him plenty of time to give
    interviews to the press and level charges against the Kremlin. Second,
    there was no way to rationalize his death as a heart attack or brain
    aneurysm. Radiation poisoning doesn't look like anything but what it is.
    Third, polonium-210 is not widely available. It is not something you
    pick up at your local pharmacy. The average homicidal maniac would not
    be able to get hold of it or use it.

    So, we have a poisoning that was unmistakably deliberate. Litvinenko was
    killed slowly, leaving him plenty of time to confirm that he thought
    Putin did it. And the poison would be very difficult to obtain by anyone
    other than a state agency. Whether it was delivered from Russia --
    something the Russians have denied -- or stolen and deployed in the
    United Kingdom, this is not something to be tried at home, kids. So,
    there was a killing, designed to look like what it was -- a
    sophisticated hit.

    This certainly raises questions among conspiracy theorists and others.
    The linkage back to the Russian state appears so direct that some might
    argue it points to other actors or factions out to stir up trouble for
    Putin, rather than to Putin himself. Others might say that Litvinenko
    was killed slowly, yet with an obvious poisoning signature, so that he
    in effect could help broadcast the Kremlin's message -- and cause other
    dissidents to think seriously about their actions.

    We know only what everyone else knows about this case, and we are
    working deductively. For all we know, Litvinenko had a very angry former
    girlfriend who worked in a nuclear lab. But while that's possible, one
    cannot dismiss the fact that his death -- in so public a manner -- fits
    in directly with the logic of today's Russia and the interests of
    Vladimir Putin and his group. It is not that we know or necessarily
    believe Putin personally ordered a killing, but we do know that, in the
    vast apparatus of the FSB, giving such an order would not have been
    contrary to the current inclinations of the leadership.

    And whatever the public's impression of the case might be, the KGB/FSB
    has not suddenly returned to the scene. In fact, it never left. Putin
    has been getting the system back under control for years. The
    free-for-all over economic matters has ended, and Putin has been
    restructuring the Russian economy for several years to increase state
    control, without totally reversing openness. This process, however,
    requires the existence of a highly disciplined FSB -- and that is not
    compatible with someone like a Litvinenko publicly criticizing the
    Kremlin from London. Litvinenko's death would certainly make that point
    very clear.

    Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

  3. #3
    Council Member aktarian's Avatar
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    It raises a point often ignored in media. If Putin wanted him dead they would do it differently. Accident, burglary gone wrong..... not something so complicated and messy (and long!) as this. Which could mean it was done by other critics of Putin to either "frame" Putin (knowing he will be blamed) or to give Litvinenko a louder voice. Or both.

  4. #4
    Council Member Kevin23's Avatar
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    Default Recent Russian Intelligence Operations

    10 people have been arrested in the Washington DC and NYC areas for allegedly attempting to commit espionage for Russia. The purpose of which was in order to "develop ties with American policymaking circles in order to feed information back to Moscow".

    Story just breaking,

    Here is a link to the breaking news

    http://www.aolnews.com/nation/articl...in-us/19534298

  5. #5
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    Default Very odd

    Kevin,

    I am struck by the timing, especially as the BBC report implies deep cover agents at work for a very long time.

    All of the arrested suspects, except Ms Chapman and Mr Semenko, have also been charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering, which carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.

    Our correspondent says the arrests will come as quite a surprise, as relations between Washington and Moscow have warmed considerably in recent months. Just last week, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was in Washington having lunch with President Barack Obama.

    It is still unclear how the White House will react or how Russia will explain this, she adds.
    Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_...a/10442223.stm

    I assume the FBI would consult with the Attorney-General before taking action. Curious the money laundering charges for most of them.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member Kevin23's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Kevin,

    I am struck by the timing, especially as the BBC report implies deep cover agents at work for a very long time.



    Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_...a/10442223.stm

    I assume the FBI would consult with the Attorney-General before taking action. Curious the money laundering charges for most of them.
    From the sounds of it davidbfpo I would have to agree with you.

    However, I'm curious if these agents for the Russian Government were US- born American citizens or Russian nationals who immigrated who settled in the United States?

    I ask because from the names listed many of them sounds like they are indeed US born citizens.

    Also from a political POV I wonder how deep this discovery runs and whether these agents did obtain any success in their mission goals. In addition to add on to this, what will the damage to the Obama Administration's attempts at "resetting relations with Russia" be.

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    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    FBI Affidavit (37 page PDF) courtesy of the Globe

    FBI bagged one couple Sunday morning at Harvard Square in Boston; naturally they lived in the People's Republic of Cambridge.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin23 View Post
    However, I'm curious if these agents for the Russian Government were US- born American citizens or Russian nationals who immigrated who settled in the United States?

    I ask because from the names listed many of them sounds like they are indeed US born citizens.
    Looks like Russian born SVR Directorate 'S' "Illegals", trained to penetrate their target country by assuming a native identity. Completely new names and everything. It takes a very long time to train and then seed these operatives, and they are often the most elite of SVR recruits.

    They are frequently paired-up as couples, but sometimes operate solo. The Canadians nabbed an illegal operating solo around 2005-06.

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    Default U.S. Charges 11 With Acting as Agents for Russia

    WASHINGTON – In what law enforcements officials portrayed as an extraordinary takedown of a Russian espionage network, the Justice Department on Monday announced charges against 11 people accused of living for years in the United States as part of a deep-cover program by S.V.R. -- one of the successors to the Soviet-era K.G.B.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/wo.../29spy.html?hp

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    This gets better and better....

    She's a "practiced deceiver." Those are the words prosecutors used to describe Anna Chapman, a red-headed 28-year-old accused of spying for Russia.

    Chapman, a divorcee who appeared in a white T-shirt and designer jeans, stood before magistrate judge Ronald Ellis in a Manhattan federal court Monday evening along with four others arrested on charges of conspiring to act as "unregistered agents of a foreign government."
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/...n6628621.shtml

    Does anyone remember the Israeli spy network that was rolled up during the summer of 2001?
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    LONDON — One of the Cold War's most famous defectors says Russia may have as many as 50 deep-cover couples spying inside the United States.
    http://www.google.com/hostednews/can...ItOfPDM43WMWoA

    Just 50???

    On Monday in federal court in Manhattan, Assistant U.S. Attorney Michael Farbiarz called the allegations "the tip of the iceberg" of a conspiracy of Russia's intelligence service, the SVR, to collect inside U.S. information.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...062901120.html
    Last edited by AdamG; 06-29-2010 at 12:42 PM.
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    Two thoughts:

    1) Mann kann nie Wisson (you never know.)

    2) I guess the annually required online "Need To Know" classes might be onto something.
    "Sweeping imperatives fall apart in the particulars."

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    The funniest aspect of the careers of the 10 alleged Russian "agents" arrested in the US is how inept they were - and how apparently unsuccessful.

    They have not even been charged with espionage, only with not registering as agents, or representatives, of a foreign government and with money laundering.
    Some pretty humorous revelations here -
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/us_...a/10446390.stm
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    Does anyone have any idea if these people are important enough for the Russians to arrest various westerners in order to make a trade?
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    I am struck by the timing, especially as the BBC report implies deep cover agents at work for a very long time.
    I'd guess the FBI has known about this for some time. I don't think they'd normally roll a network like this up right away, first impulse would be to try to use it to pass disinformation. The arrests suggest that any possible such use was not seen as particularly valuable, and of course that the timing was seen as useful.

    If the Russians make arrests to trade they will have to admit that this was in fact a spy network, so far they don't seem to be doing that. We'll see...

    Much of the media attention seems to be driven by the fact that one of the alleged spies is female and hot. Some things get more attention than others...
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 06-30-2010 at 01:32 AM.

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    Russian spy ring: fact, parody and nostalgia
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...rody-nostalgia

    The creator of Spooks on the Russian espionage scandal, its nostalgic spycraft and how fact can be less credible than fiction
    Also, a swanky spreadsheet on Googledocs of the 11 spies -
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...NTV9LZ3c#gid=0
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    NEW YORK (AP) -- An alleged member of a Russian spy ring that authorities say operated under deep cover in America's suburbs vanished in Cyprus on Wednesday, a day after being released on bail.

    The man, who had gone by the name Christopher Metsos and was wanted in the U.S. on charges he supplied money to the spy ring, had been arrested Tuesday in the Mediterranean island nation as he tried to board a flight for Budapest, Hungary.

    On Wednesday, after a Cypriot judge had freed him on $32,500 bail, he failed to show for a required meeting with police, and authorities began searching for him.
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...TAM&SECTION=US
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    Council Member Kevin23's Avatar
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    Here is a further story on Mr. "Christopher Mestos" from the Cyprus Mail

    http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/va...-bail/20100701

  18. #18
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    Default R.I.P. Sergei Tretyakov

    As the story of the SVR illegals played out this past week, I trolled Google News searching for insight from former SVR officer Sergei Tretyakov to no avail. Sergei Tretyakov may be the most important spy for the United States since the end of the Cold War; it is believed that he spent 3 years as a US agent while he was still an SVR colonel in New York before he defected.

    So it is with great regret to learn that Sergei Tretyakov, at the age of 53, died June 13 of a heart attack at his home in Florida. Rest in peace, Comrade J.
    The story of Sergei Tretyakov is told in Comrade J.: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy in America after the End of the Cold War by veteran intelligence journalist Pete Early. Tretyakov also gave an extensive interview over a series of reports by WTOP titled "Escaping from the Iron Curtain".

  19. #19
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Cool

    Report Points to Russian Double Agent, by Clifford J. Levy. The New York Times, November 11, 2010.
    MOSCOW — A Russian newspaper reported Thursday that a senior official in Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service had provided the information that enabled the United States to break up a ring of Russian sleeper spies in June.

    The turncoat official, identified only as Colonel Shcherbakov, was said to have defected to the United States just before the arrests and was now being tracked by a Russian assassination squad, according to the newspaper, Kommersant, considered one of Russia’s most authoritative.

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    Default A common enough Russian name,

    Shcherbakov; but it would be ironic if "Col. Shcherbakov" is related to Alexander Shcherbakov, claimed to be a victim of the conspirators charged by Uncle Joe in the infamous Doctors' Plot.

    HT for keeping us up to date.

    Regards

    Mike

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