Recent Russian Intelligence Operations

[davidbfpo]

Two items, each very different.

The first is by Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London; which is broad strategic overview entitled:

Putin’s new Cold War; Assassination attempts, cyber-attacks, military interventions – Russia is once again playing a deadly game with the West. Yet beneath the bravado is a nation riddled with insecurities.

Link:https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...s-new-cold-war

The second is an alternative view on the nerve agent used and in summary:

There are reasons to doubt that these compounds are military grade nerve agents or that a Russian “Novichok” programme ever existed. If they were potentially usable as chemical weapons, people on the OPCW Scientific Advisory Board who were in a position to know the properties of these compounds would have recommended that they be added to the list of Scheduled Chemicals. They have never been added.
2) Synthesis at bench scale of organic chemicals such as the purported “Novichoks” is within the capability of a modern chemistry laboratory. Porton Down itself must have been able to synthesize these compounds in order to develop tests for them. The detection of such a compound does not establish Russian origin.

Link:https://timhayward.wordpress.com/201...ing-novichoks/

[davidbfpo]

I am familiar with the views of Alastair Hay, Professor (Emeritus) of Environmental Toxicology, University of Leeds; whose slim bio states:

He is a member of the Advisory Board on Education and Outreach of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and Chairman of the UK Chemical Weapons Convention Advisory Committee.

His commentary ends with:

Nerve agents are grotesque weapons and their use against civilians is a deeply disturbing trend. But in the weeks to come, there will have to be a dispassionate review of the evidence. And as the spat between Russia, and the UK and its allies worsens, cool heads will be needed. Amid all this frenetic activity, however, we must not forget the three victims – and wish them a swift recovery. After all, they are the ones paying the heaviest price.

Link:https://theconversation.com/novichok-the-deadly-story-behind-the-nerve-agent-in-sergei-skripal-spy-attack-93562?

Meantime the incident has retreated from the media foreground here, I leave aside the political fracas over whether Jeremy Corbyn is 'fit and proper' person to possibly become Prime Minister. We have the OPCW involved, some odd political statements that there is evidence aplenty it is the Russian state's responsibility and a criminal investigation.

[davidbfpo]

An unusual commentary via RUSI, by:

The author is a senior former British intelligence official who has chosen to write this article anonymously to articulate unhindered views.

Link:https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-and-russia-what-be-done

It opens with:

As Lenin once quipped at a key turning moment in his revolution, chto delat? (What is to be done?). That is precisely the question facing the UK after the attempted assassination in Salisbury of Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia

The last paragraph:

The actions proposed here against the Russian intelligence presence may not be the most dramatic suggestions. But the UK’s response must acknowledge that British–Russian relations are not just some degrees worse than hitherto. For Russia under Putin has become not just a disappointing partner or a part-nuisance; it is now hostile, and Whitehall needs to adopt a policy to accept that.

[davidbfpo]

Today there has been a flurry of reports, all of which appear to cast doubt on the official version. In part as ministers and others referred to 'evidence' when it would have been wiser to say 'assessment' or 'intelligence'.

This via the NYT on March 29th via Twitter and not in the UK media:

Sergei Skripal's door is being removed from his Salisbury home, hours after police say he was exposed to nerve agent there....(From Shashank Joshi, of RUSI) 25 days after the poisoning.

Here is a headline today from the conservative Daily Telegraph:

Salisbury nerve agent 'probably state made' but Porton Down scientists unable to say it came from Russia

Gary Aitkenhead, the chief executive of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) at Porton Down, said that:

We were able to identify it as novichok, to identify that it was a military-grade nerve agent. We have not verified the precise source, but we provided the scientific information to the government who have then used a number of other sources to piece together the conclusions that they have come to. It is our job to provide the scientific evidence that identifies what the particular nerve agent is, we identified that it was from this family and that it is a military grade nerve agent, but it is not our job to then say where that actually was manufactured.

Link:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...e-nerve-agent/

A dissident voice on Open Democracy (which leans to the left IMHO):

It is difficult to obtain 100% proof in cases such as the Sergey Skripal poisoning. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't demand as much evidence — from our politicians and law enforcement — as possible.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...se-is-lacking?

A more detailed analysis comes from a group of academics who watch propaganda and the media; one - not one of the three authors - of whom I have heard in person who would never be sympathetic to a Conservative government here. A key point made:

The UK government’s declared case therefore rests only on subjective judgements of “intent and motive”, which are open to question.

Link:http://syriapropagandamedia.org/working-papers/update-to-briefing-note-doubts-about-novichoks

[davidbfpo]

Shashank Joshi, of RUSI, replies to the criticism (via the Australian Lowy Institute):https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-in...eight-evidence

[davidbfpo]

A good overview and some hints at what the UK has told its allies. A "taster" passage:

For weeks, the Russians have been hammering away at weaknesses in the British argumentation and now, that strategy has begun to show at least some results. If the British don't release additional details or evidence, there is a danger that the Skripal case will become a matter of faith rather than of fact.

Link:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1201573.html

[davidbfpo]

In so far unexplained circumstances two adults had contact with Novichok, either in Salisbury or a nearby village; after four days the media broadcast the story. One of them, a woman has now died.

An acknowledged SME, Alistair Hay, has a short article; he tries to answer this:

So what do we know about Novichok and how long it remains in the environment? Regrettably, very little. There is insufficient scientific data to be certain about the time it takes for this chemical to degrade and for the threat it poses to end.

Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44778697

The second article is partly from a public meeting held to reassure the local population. One must wonder if this was successful:

The nerve agent that killed a Wiltshire woman could last for 50 years if it remains in a container, Britain’s top counter-terrorism officer has said.

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/10/nerve-agent-poisoning-inquiry-spreads-to-swindon-car-seized-dawn-sturgess?