Recent Russian Intelligence Operations

[davidbfpo]

Slowly the attack is getting clearer and may no longer have been a public event - rather than the Skripal pair were poisoned in their private house:

Asked if there were any leads in the case, Lord Blair told the Today Programme on Radio 4: “There are some indications that the police officer who was injured had been to the house, whereas there was a doctor who looked after the patients in the open, who hasn’t been affected at all. So there maybe some clues floating around in here."

Link:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...olice-believe/

Lord Blair being a former Met Police Commissioner till 2008 and one assumes he was able to network to come out with this.

[Azor]

Breaking

Prime Minister May:

If Russia doesn't respond satisfactorily, then the government will consider attack "unlawful use of force" against UK.

For context

Defence Secretary Williamson:

Russia's being assertive, Russia's being more aggressive, and we have to change the way that we deal with it because we can't be in a situation in these areas of conflict where we are being pushed around by another nation.

Foreign Secretary Johnson:

But if, and it's still a big if, it turns out this is the agency of another state attempting to kill people on UK soil then of course the UK will respond robustly.

Home Secretary Rudd:

There will come a time for attribution and there will be, then, consequences and there will be further information that follows...The use of a nerve agent on UK soil is a brazen and reckless act. This was attempted murder in the most cruel and public way. People are right to want to know who to hold to account. We are committed to doing all we can to bring the perpetrators to justice - whoever they are and wherever they may be.

Member of Parliament Chris Tugendhat:

The first duty of government is to protect the British people - I think using nerve agents on British streets really does demand a response.

[Azor]

It is now clear that Mr. Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia...The government has concluded that it is highly likely that Russia was responsible for the act against Sergei and Yulia Skripal...Should there be no credible response, we will conclude that this action amounts to an unlawful use of force by the Russian state against the United Kingdom, and I will come back to this House and set out the full range of measures we will take in response...We shall not tolerate such a brazen act to murder innocent civilians on our soil.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/w...poisoning.html

[davidbfpo]

Dan Lomas, a UK academic, adds some context to the allegations and attempted murders. He makes two points near the end:

Like Mossad’s suspected attacks on nuclear scientists, Litvinenko’s murder and the horrific attacks on other Russian dissidents are designed with one purpose: to instil fear in dissidents, opposition leaders and (like Skripal) former spies – and indeed, anyone potentially inspired by their behaviour. The message is clear: “Desist, or else.”
Whether Russia is involved in this latest incident or not, it should surprise no one that countries regularly use killing as a way to intimidate and pursue foreign policy goals. What remains to be seen in this case is how the British government will respond.

Link:https://theconversation.com/sergei-skripal-and-the-long-history-of-assassination-attempts-abroad-93021?

[davidbfpo]

Amidst all the media clamour there are critics of the response to date, notably teh advice given to those who visited a restaurant in Salisbury:

To see people wearing tremendous protective clothing and then [Public Health England] saying to the rest of us: you’re fine, wash your clothes, use baby wipes is just extraordinary. It doesn’t make sense when I’m looking at a newspaper photograph of five men in space suits and we’re just walking around in ordinary clothes. There should at least be a hotline for people to ring.

The military response with trained troops in CBRN suits led to something I had missed; the specialist joint service CBRN regiment was disbanded in 2011, as part of defence spending cuts.

It is worth checking 'Timeline: the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal'.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...om-nerve-agent

[Azor]

David,

I have to respectfully disagree with Lomas’ conclusions.

Firstly, although Lomas is correct that various states carry out assassinations or targeted killings abroad, in most cases plausible deniability is sought. Notable exceptions include state actions against organized non-state actors such as insurgent or terrorist groups. Although the Soviet Union did not disclaim the attempted and successful assassinations of Trotsky in 1939-1940, despite a pro-Trotsky organization being a phantom, the Soviets were much more careful to have Bandera and Rebet appear to have died from natural causes (1957 and 1959). With regard to both Litvinenko and Skripal, the method of assassination renders deniability implausible, as the poisons are both traceable to Russia.

Secondly, even the death of a former agent from natural causes or criminal activity can arouse suspicion. Had Litvinenko and Skripal been stabbed, shot, or bludgeoned to death during a robbery, struck by a vehicle, or fallen from a height, their deaths alone would have had a chilling effect on British intelligence asset development in Russia. Was using radiological and biological weaponry truly necessary to deter treason? After all, media reports probably credit too many deaths to Russian state assassins, when organized crime and natural causes are also involved.

Unfortunately, Lomas provides no insight as to why Russia would attack a NATO member with traceable weapons of mass destruction in an indiscriminate manner twice, risking an Article IV or V response from the North Atlantic Council, when a bullet would do.

[davidbfpo]

Two items, each very different.

The first is by Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London; which is broad strategic overview entitled:

Putin’s new Cold War; Assassination attempts, cyber-attacks, military interventions – Russia is once again playing a deadly game with the West. Yet beneath the bravado is a nation riddled with insecurities.

Link:https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...s-new-cold-war

The second is an alternative view on the nerve agent used and in summary:

There are reasons to doubt that these compounds are military grade nerve agents or that a Russian “Novichok” programme ever existed. If they were potentially usable as chemical weapons, people on the OPCW Scientific Advisory Board who were in a position to know the properties of these compounds would have recommended that they be added to the list of Scheduled Chemicals. They have never been added.
2) Synthesis at bench scale of organic chemicals such as the purported “Novichoks” is within the capability of a modern chemistry laboratory. Porton Down itself must have been able to synthesize these compounds in order to develop tests for them. The detection of such a compound does not establish Russian origin.

Link:https://timhayward.wordpress.com/201...ing-novichoks/

[davidbfpo]

I am familiar with the views of Alastair Hay, Professor (Emeritus) of Environmental Toxicology, University of Leeds; whose slim bio states:

He is a member of the Advisory Board on Education and Outreach of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and Chairman of the UK Chemical Weapons Convention Advisory Committee.

His commentary ends with:

Nerve agents are grotesque weapons and their use against civilians is a deeply disturbing trend. But in the weeks to come, there will have to be a dispassionate review of the evidence. And as the spat between Russia, and the UK and its allies worsens, cool heads will be needed. Amid all this frenetic activity, however, we must not forget the three victims – and wish them a swift recovery. After all, they are the ones paying the heaviest price.

Link:https://theconversation.com/novichok-the-deadly-story-behind-the-nerve-agent-in-sergei-skripal-spy-attack-93562?

Meantime the incident has retreated from the media foreground here, I leave aside the political fracas over whether Jeremy Corbyn is 'fit and proper' person to possibly become Prime Minister. We have the OPCW involved, some odd political statements that there is evidence aplenty it is the Russian state's responsibility and a criminal investigation.