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  1. #1
    Council Member Kevin23's Avatar
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    Question The future of European stabilty?

    Greetings to everyone here at SWC I've been fairly busy recently and haven't had much time to contribute.

    This is question that I've had on my mind for sometime now after reading a number of articles on here and in FP as well as in a number of other sources. even though it may sound far-fetched and to many impossible, but given everything that has been happening on the continent is the future of European security stability in jeopardy? Especially since talk of a collapse of the EU and questions over the continued relevancy of NATO are increasingly being regarded as no longer impossible. To add on this topic Europe has fought two very bloody and geopolitically altering wars over the past 95+ plus years

    Additionally, the financial and economic situation across Europe as a whole seems to be getting worse by the day. And the places where it appears particularly bad in countries that don't have a long tradition of being Democratic or having weak institutions or are thoroughly corrupt in many areas of society i.e. Greece or Italy.

    For many the crisis appears to have no end in sight, and appears to be spreading not only are countries like Greece facing the possibility of default. But there has also been question's over Italy, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, and even France. The latter of which all could be impossible to bail out.

    Likewise, the economic crisis in Europe has also exposed the limit's of European unity and cooperation ex. you have conservative politicians in Northern European nations like Germany and the Netherlands railing against " the lazy people of Southern Europe, saying that the German, French, or Dutch taxpayer is footing the the bill for Southern excesses and corruption". While Southern European and Mediterranean politicians and attitudes are bringing up such unwelcome memories like the German occupation of Greece during WWII and other things dealing with the fmr. the Nazi regime as if Germany owes these countries something for past treatment.

    Also right-wing parties across the continent from Britain to Greece have seen their fortunes do pretty well in recent years. For instance, the FN in France is polling somewhere between 2nd and 3rd place under a new leader, Geert Wilders party has experienced a string of electoral successes and is still polling quite well, in Italy an anti-immigrant party and a Neo-Fascist sit in Silvio's Coalition government, and in Austria it looks like the Freedom party stands a chance of possibly forming a government in the next election. The success of these parties has been in large part due to wide ranging concerns in European societies, especially over the integration of immigrants mainly from the Middle East and Africa, further European integration, and the current financial crisis.

    Furthermore, many have observed that the European social fabric is gradually buckling under the weight of the financial crisis. As there have been riots and other notable violent disturbances in a number of European cities ranging from Paris to Rome and most recently all over the UK and Athens this past summer. I was in London this past summer and the general impression I got from what happened was that the events there could have easily happened in any other European country say France, Spain, or Italy.

    European governments seem to be splitting apart from each other on other issues also. For instance, France was strongly supportive of the intervention in Libya last Spring while Germany was the opposite and even abstained from it in a UN vote.

    These are all just a few examples of why geopolitical stability n Europe is being question. However, what would things look like if the EU and NATO collapsed due to these pressures? Friedman's Stratfor said in a series of articles on this subject that things would go back the way things were a century ago in a way, with a large number of smaller European countries and three main Continental powers i.e. France, Germany, and Russia.

    Even though this hasn't been discussed in much more detail other then the sources I mentioned, is the future of European security stability in jeopardy? Is the world going to have to worry about an unstable Europe again?

    If there are any opinions I'd like to hear them.

  2. #2
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    The reason for NATO's relevance in Europe is that it keeps Continental Europe and the U.S. from becoming hostile to each other (which would be in neither's interest).
    Staying in NATO furthermore means stability, as no European foreign politician has to care about the classic construction and sabotage of short-term alliances. Staying in NATO simple means one foreign political problem less.


    The current financial market crisis which includes the exposure of unsustainable economic and political models in countries which never came close to meet the standards required for the common currency and in countries that actually should not be in trouble (but are being pushed into needless troubles by speculation) is a drastic crisis for some European countries, negligible to others.

    The institutional Europe has to learn that (despite being quite pro-Europe ideology-driven) is can make mistakes and did some. So far the successes overshadowed mistakes, now there's an exception. A weakening of the pro-Europe ideology and subsequent greater ability to correct earlier pro-Europe moves can very well lead to a better union.

    The greater awareness for the economic differences of the member states helps as well. On top of that Germany has never been more close to understanding that its huge trade balance surplus is a problem, not a performance to be proud of.



    Finally; Europe doesn't break apart because of a crisis like this. That's a scenario for people who don't care about reality.
    Much of Europe has been institutionalised, much has become a quite irreversible habit; even a total failure of the common currency would only scratch the surface of European integration.

    The idea of fixing the exchange rates (= common currency) was stupid anyway, many economists told so since the mid-90's. It was an ideological overreach.

    The next logical step was not to unify currency, but to unify media. The continent cannot unify more without having a more similar perception of the world. Nation-wide news need to cover about the same topics with about the same emphasis and lead to a political homogenization this way.
    Boring TV channels such as Arte don't cut it, what we need is a media network that produces almost the same content (partially regionalised) in different languages.
    National 'balloon boy' BS stories need to give way for the major stories from other countries. I haven't heard about he foreign policy of Lithuania EVER.
    That is where unification can proceed and has to proceed if at all.

  3. #3
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Reuters headlines this AM (in my time zone), probably demonstrating nothing other than that someone at Reuters is fed up, but interesting in that such things shape perceptions:

    Euro has new politburo but no solution yet

    Markets abandoning hopes for lasting euro zone solution

    Euro zone's political bumbling risks global gloom

    Euro zone countries could split, says Goldman Sachs exec


    Just looked at Yahoo Finance and it all kind of jumped out... maybe I'll even read them.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  4. #4
    Council Member Red Rat's Avatar
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    Default European Integration and Security

    Speaking as a Brit (and we have a distinctly ambivalent view of Europe) the problem with the European Project is that integration has been seen as:
    • Too Fast
    • Politically unaccountable


    Too Fast: As Fuchs points out we are not yet 'European' with a common identity.

    Unaccountable: In Britain we alternate between despair and cynicism with our political elite. We feel completely divorced from the European political institutions.

    From a security perspective the economic turmoil is leading to political turmoil which historically has encouraged the rise of radical elements and movements.

    RUSI has done an interesting paper on the possible security ramifications: RUSI: The shape of Europe to come
    RR

    "War is an option of difficulties"

  5. #5
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Arab Spring: European Autumn

    A nice phrase used on the BBC's Newsnight yesterday as the parliaments in Greece and Italy voted in technocrats as their new, financial market credible prime ministers. The technocrats in both cases have only just become parliamentarians and have no electoral mandate.

    There are numerous factors involved Kevin23 and it is easy to portray the situation as one where the key players are: the nationally elected politicians, the public, the international markets, bankers and multinational institutions in particular the IMF and EU.

    For sometime now European democracy prided itself in elected politicians choosing the framework for a social market economy, principally at a national level and with some sleight of hand IMHO at an EU level. All appeared to work well until financial affairs upset the market economy, made worse as a recession looms closer and the public mutter why should I pay for this?

    European democratic legitimacy appears to be increasingly challenged by the appeal to a technocrat at the helm and an institutional oligarchy. Sounds like the 'New International Order' to some.

    It does seem odd after the 'Arab Spring'.
    davidbfpo

  6. #6
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    EU is an idea that is ready for good times....I guess we will see if it is ready for hard times. I suspect it is not, and that this could tear it apart. Or worse. We'll see.
    Robert C. Jones
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    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    MOSCOW (AP) — Russia is facing a heightened risk of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that have the potential of turning nuclear, the nation's top military officer said Thursday.

    Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, cautioned over NATO's expansion eastward and warned that the risks of Russia being pulled into local conflicts have "risen sharply."

    Makarov added, according to Russian news agencies, that "under certain conditions local and regional conflicts may develop into a full-scale war involving nuclear weapons."
    http://start.toshiba.com/news/read.p....org%3E&ps=921
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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Russia warns it will deploy Iskander missile systems in the Kaliningrad and Krasnodar regions, and in the neighboring Belorussia if there is no agreement over the planned American missile defense shield in Europe between Russia and the US. A spokesman for Russia’s Defense Ministry told this to reporters in Moscow on Wednesday. He also announced that by the 1st of December Russia will raise Aerospace Defense Forces that will be able to effectively handle potential missile threats.
    http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/11/23/60890065.html

    Or as a more alarmist headline would read, "Russia’s top military commander has warned of nuclear war with NATO". http://www.zimbabwemetro.com/?p=30650
    Last edited by AdamG; 11-23-2011 at 03:36 PM.
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  9. #9
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    German Bond Auction Falls Short

    Germany failed to get bids for 35 percent of the 10-year bonds offered for sale today, propelling borrowing costs in Europe higher and the euro lower on concern the region’s debt crisis is driving away investors.

    “This auction is nothing short of a disaster for Germany,” Mark Grant, a managing director at Southwest Securities Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, said by e-mail. “If the strongest nation in Europe has this kind of difficulty raising capital, one shudders concerning the upcoming auctions in other European nations.”
    This is beyond contagion - the eurozone is becoming terra incognita for investors - people are terrified in the markets. The "core" should realize what Benjamin Franklin said - that the EZ will either hang together or most assuredly hang separately.

  10. #10
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered the military to prepare to "destroy" the command capability of the planned U.S. missile-defense system in Europe.
    *
    "I have ordered the armed forces to develop measures to ensure, if necessary, that we can destroy the command and control systems" of the U.S. shield, Medvedev said. "These measures are appropriate, effective and low-cost."
    "This is a Cold War-style issue that can be damaging for Russia-U.S. relations," Gevorgyan said by phone. "Unfortunately, it's going to stay for a while and during an election period it is an issue that can attract a lot of attention."
    "The West has been listening to Russian concerns, but it's true that the Russians are disappointed with the dialogue," Roman Kuzniar, an adviser to Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski, said by phone today. "I don't think they'll station missiles in Kaliningrad though. I'm more worried about the Russian threats to withdraw from the arms control treaty."

    "This is a Cold War-style issue that can be damaging for Russia-U.S. relations," Gevorgyan said by phone. "Unfortunately, it's going to stay for a while and during an election period it is an issue that can attract a lot of attention."
    Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...#ixzz1eYGdjYZq
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  11. #11
    Council Member Surferbeetle's Avatar
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    Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns, By James Kirkup, Deputy Political Editor10:00PM GMT 25 Nov 2011, The Telegraph

    As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
    Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
    The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
    Wikipedia backgrounder on The Telegraph paper

    The Daily Telegraph is a daily morning broadsheet newspaper distributed throughout the United Kingdom and internationally. The newspaper was founded by Arthur B. Sleigh in June 1855 as the Daily Telegraph and Courier, and is since 2004 owned by David and Frederick Barclay.

    According to a MORI survey conducted in 2005, 64% of Telegraph readers intended to support the Conservative Party in the coming elections.[3] It had an average daily circulation of 634,113 in July 2011 (compared to 441,205 for The Times).[2]
    Germany, France plan quick new Stability Pact: report, BERLIN | Sun Nov 27, 2011 7:43am EST, Reuters

    France and Germany are planning a quick new pact on budget discipline that might persuade the European Central Bank to ramp up its government bond purchases, Welt am Sonntag reported on Sunday.
    In an advance release before publication, Welt am Sonntag said that because it would take too long to change existing European Union treaties, euro zone countries should just agree among themselves on a new Stability Pact to enforce budget discipline - possibly implemented at the start of 2012.

    It could be similar to the Schengen Agreement which applies to EU countries that choose to take part and enables their citizens to enjoy uninhibited cross border travel. Among the countries in the Stability Pact, there would be a treaty spelling out strict deficit rules and control rights for national budgets.
    ****Actually it seems the story was broken in Bild (ack ) but let's follow the trail******

    Geheimverhandlungen ber neuen Euro-Vertrag, 26.11.2011, Die Welt

    Deutschland und Frankreich wollen offenbar bis Anfang 2012 einen neuen Euro-Stabilittsvertrag notfalls auch ohne Rcksicht auf die EU-Kommission.
    Auf die angestammte Rolle der EU-Kommission wollten Merkel und Sarkozy notfalls keine Rcksicht nehmen. Schon beim nchsten EU-Gipfel am 8./9. Dezember wolle das Duo seine Plne vorstellen. Scharfer Protest werde vor allem aus Grobritannien erwartet, das zwar nicht zur Euro-Zone gehrt, aber nicht weiter an den Rand gedrngt werden wolle.
    Wikipedia backgrounder on the newspaper Die Welt

    It was founded in Hamburg in 1946 by the British occupying forces, aiming to provide a "quality newspaper" modelled on The Times. It originally carried news and British-viewpoint editorial content, but from 1947 it adopted a policy of providing two leading articles on major questions, one British and one German. At its peak in the occupation period, it had a circulation of around a million.[1]

    The modern paper takes a self-described "liberal cosmopolitan" position in editing, but Die Welt is generally considered to be conservative.[2][3]

    The average circulation of Die Welt is currently about 209,000 and the paper can be obtained in more than 130 countries. Daily regional editions appear in Berlin and Hamburg, and in 2002 the paper experimented with a Bavarian edition. A daily regional supplement also appears in Bremen. The main editorial office is in Berlin, in conjunction with the Berliner Morgenpost.

    Die Welt is the flagship newspaper of the Axel Springer publishing group. Its leading competitors are the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the Sddeutsche Zeitung and the Frankfurter Rundschau. Financially, it has been a lossmaker for many years.
    Merkel und Sarkozy wollen neuen EU-Vertrag, 26.11.2011 07:55 Uhr, Bild

    Deutschland und Frankreich drcken aufs Tempo! In Rekordtempo soll ein neuer Euro-Stabilittsvertrag erzwungen werden -mglichst schon zu Beginn nchsten Jahres! Damit soll endlich Ruhe an den Finanzmrkten einkehren.
    Nach BILD-Informationen erwgen Kanzlerin Angela Merkel und Frankreichs Staatsprsident Nicolas Sarkozy sogar, den neuen Stabilittspakt zunchst als Vertrag zwischen den Nationalstaaten zu schlieen -hnlich dem anfnglichen Abkommen ber den Wegfall der Personenkontrollen in der EU ("Schengen-Vertrag"). Der Vorteil: Das geht schneller und lsst skeptischen Mitgliedsstaaten weniger Raum fr Widerstand. Auf die EU-Kommission wollen Merkel und Sarkozy notfalls keine Rcksicht nehmen.
    Wikipedia backgrounder on the Bild newspaper

    The Bild (formerly Bild-Zeitung[clarification needed], lit. Picture Newspaper; pronounced [ˈbɪlt]) is a German tabloid published by Axel Springer AG. The paper is published from Monday to Saturday, while on Sundays, Bild am Sonntag (lit. Picture on Sunday) is published instead, which has a different style and its own editors. Bild is tabloid in style, although actually broadsheet in size. It is the best-selling newspaper outside Japan and has the sixth-largest circulation worldwide.[1] Its motto, prominently displayed below the logo, is unabhngig, berparteilich (independent, nonpartisan). Another slogan used prominently in advertising is Bild dir deine Meinung!, which translates as "Form your own opinion!" (i. e., by reading Bild), a pun based on the fact that in German, Bild (more properly Bild'!, a short form of Bilde!) can also be understood as the imperative form of bilden, "to shape, to form".

    Bild's nearest English-language stylistic and journalistic equivalent is often considered to be the British national newspaper The Sunthe second highest selling European tabloid newspaperwith which it shares a degree of rivalry.[2][3][4]
    Sapere Aude

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