The future of European stabilty?

[Dayuhan]

Reuters headlines this AM (in my time zone), probably demonstrating nothing other than that someone at Reuters is fed up, but interesting in that such things shape perceptions:

Euro has new politburo but no solution yet

Markets abandoning hopes for lasting euro zone solution

Euro zone's political bumbling risks global gloom

Euro zone countries could split, says Goldman Sachs exec

Just looked at Yahoo Finance and it all kind of jumped out... maybe I'll even read them.

[Red Rat]

Speaking as a Brit (and we have a distinctly ambivalent view of Europe) the problem with the European Project is that integration has been seen as:

• Too Fast
• Politically unaccountable

Too Fast: As Fuchs points out we are not yet 'European' with a common identity.

Unaccountable: In Britain we alternate between despair and cynicism with our political elite. We feel completely divorced from the European political institutions.

From a security perspective the economic turmoil is leading to political turmoil which historically has encouraged the rise of radical elements and movements.

RUSI has done an interesting paper on the possible security ramifications: RUSI: The shape of Europe to come

[davidbfpo]

A nice phrase used on the BBC's Newsnight yesterday as the parliaments in Greece and Italy voted in technocrats as their new, financial market credible prime ministers. The technocrats in both cases have only just become parliamentarians and have no electoral mandate.

There are numerous factors involved Kevin23 and it is easy to portray the situation as one where the key players are: the nationally elected politicians, the public, the international markets, bankers and multinational institutions in particular the IMF and EU.

For sometime now European democracy prided itself in elected politicians choosing the framework for a social market economy, principally at a national level and with some sleight of hand IMHO at an EU level. All appeared to work well until financial affairs upset the market economy, made worse as a recession looms closer and the public mutter why should I pay for this?

European democratic legitimacy appears to be increasingly challenged by the appeal to a technocrat at the helm and an institutional oligarchy. Sounds like the 'New International Order' to some.

It does seem odd after the 'Arab Spring'.

[Bob's World]

EU is an idea that is ready for good times....I guess we will see if it is ready for hard times. I suspect it is not, and that this could tear it apart. Or worse. We'll see.

[AmericanPride]

I don't think we have to worry about security in Europe or even Europe's approach to security in neighboring regions. Even if Germany abstained from participating in the Libya conflict, it did not obstruct it nor did it downgrade its participation in the alliance or lodge any kind of major objection. The European states are still firmly loyal to the American global system and will hold on for dear life to ride out the current problems. The future crisis is not if the EU will break up, but to what lengths the dominant EU states will go to keep the organization viable. Already Greece and Italy are required to impose stiff austerity packages and I'm sure we will see the continued destruction of national sovereignty by necessity.

[davidbfpo]

AmericanPride,

You state two matters I will take issue with:

1) The European states are still firmly loyal to the American global system...

2) Already Greece and Italy are required to impose stiff austerity packages and I'm sure we will see the continued destruction of national sovereignty by necessity.

Re: 1) There are many aspects to this 'system' and some of the changes are being made by the USA, notably a shift to the Pacific. Then there is the ex-UK Prime Minister John major making one of his rare forays into public policy:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ationship.html

And 2) There is a view that the technocrats in the national banks, international finance and EU institutions created the problem, so they are hardly the best choice to find a solution.

Nor should we overlook the apparently dominant role of Germany in the various "rescue" packages, the imagery of "bankers from Berlin" supervising national economies could set off a fuse in Greece and Italy.

[Bob's World]

I agree with David.

Also worth noting is that wars have started over less, and many of those have been in Europe.

When sovereign states are cobbled together with paper, it better be some damn good paper, as even a single flaw can be fatal.

The US Constitution was the paper that cobbled together 13 sovereign states; but it pointedly both ignored and avoided one, unsolvable issue....and it damn near destroyed us. We had enough commonality of language and culture to battle back from the brink, I don't believe that exists in Europe. EU may have been too bold; a move that vaulted Governance too far in advance of where populaces stand on the matter of sovereignty and what they are willing to surrender to government. (see the slide I posted on the defining COIN thread)

To ignore the people and to instead seek to preserve the EU as it stands may be folly. Perhaps, like the NCAA there needs to be some new conferences drawn up to create more effective aliances...but that too can create competing teams of states and also lead to war.

All paths can lead to war or peace (and typically do). I doubt it will be a "small" one though when it pops, and I hope, that like in the last two, the US does not have a large standing army when it happens and is thereby forced to sit out the first couple years once again. Far better to be in a power position at the finish, than at the start.