Page 5 of 6 FirstFirst ... 3456 LastLast
Results 81 to 100 of 104

Thread: Iran, Nukes and Diplomacy 2011-2014

  1. #81
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    11,074

    Default What if Israel Bombed Iran?

    What if Israel Bombed Iran?

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  2. #82
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default An iceberg slightly exposed?

    One of the more curious aspects of this long running saga is Israel's relationship with other nations, notably Turkey (now waning) and recently in the media Azerbaijan. The link is to an updated report:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...88T05L20120930

    Azerbaijan, the oil-rich ex-Soviet republic on Iran's far northern border, has, say local sources with knowledge of its military policy, explored with Israel how Azeri air bases and spy drones might help Israeli jets pull off a long-range attack.
    There is nothing like a complicated situation or "human terrain" to factor in:
    Relations have long been strained between the former Soviet state and Iran, which is home to twice as many ethnic Azeris as Azerbaijan itself. Tehran beams an Azeri-language television channel over the border which portrays Aliyev as a puppet of Israel and the West, as well as highlighting corruption in Baku.
    davidbfpo

  3. #83
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default Strangled by the exchange rate?

    I know we've considered the impact of the US$ to Iranian Rial exchange report before, but it appears an official Iranian government move to reform foreign exchange dealing has gone very, very wrong:
    The currency, the rial, weakened to 34,700 to the dollar by the end of the day's trading, according to the Mesghal.com website, a drop of 17 per cent compared to the previous day's rate of 29,600.

    The Mehr news agency said the rial fell 18 per cent to 35,000. The rial has lost more than 80 per cent of its value compared with the end of last year, when it was worth 13,000 to the dollar....

    The government has in recent weeks excluded almost all importers from buying dollars at its official rate of 12,260 rials per dollar, encouraging them instead to use a new "exchange centre" where the rate was fixed daily at a small discount to the open-market rate. That has sharply increased consumer prices and spurred the rial's fall.
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...take-hold.html
    davidbfpo

  4. #84
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default The last straw for Iran's economy?

    A reminder, albeit written in April 2012, by Chatham House (RIIA, London) that:
    History shows that sanctions have a poor record of success....there are many reasons why sanctions are unlikely to deliver the blow that could force Iran to abandon or compromise on its nuclear ambitions.

    ....the ultimate flaw in sanctions: applied as a form of collective punishment, they penalise the victims of the target regimes as much as their perpetrators, who become adept at deflecting the worst impacts and use the spectre of external threat to suppress internal dissent. As Gary Sick, an astute Iran analyst, has remarked: 'Sanctions do not persuade dictatorial regimes to abandon projects that they think are central to their security and survival or even their self-image'.
    Link:http://www.chathamhouse.org/publicat...ve/view/182763
    davidbfpo

  5. #85
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default Iran: The Significance of Fordo

    Analysis by Paul Rogers:
    The ongoing development work at the heavily protected Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment site near Qom in Iran is highly significant in changing the terms of the evolving crisis over the Iranian nuclear programme. Open source intelligence now suggests that Fordo is a core part of the Iranian post-attack recovery capability. This has major implications for policy formulation for the longer-term resolution of the crisis, as it could potentially change the diplomatic balance.
    I was intrigued by this, not that I watch the region closely, so others maybe aware, with my emphasis:
    Indeed, the Obama administration does not want any kind of conflict with Iran before the Presidential Election, and it even has the direct capability to make an attack significantly more risky for Israel. This is because the United States deploys an advanced XĖband radar system, serviced by around a hundred US military personnel, on Mount Keren in the southern Negev Desert. This very powerful long-range system forms a key provider of early warning against missile and air attack and is fully integrated into Israelís defence architecture. If the United States was privately to threaten to stand down the system, even if there was an element of bluff, it could have a potentially deleterious effect on Israelís home defences.
    Link:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.u...ificance_fordo
    davidbfpo

  6. #86
    Council Member Surferbeetle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    1,111

    Default

    Hyperinflation Has Arrived In Iran, Posted by Steve H. Hanke, 3 Oct 2012, Cato at Liberty, http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/hyper...rived-in-iran/

    Since the U.S. and E.U. first enacted sanctions against Iran, in 2010, the value of the Iranian rial (IRR) has plummeted, imposing untold misery on the Iranian people. When a currency collapses, you can be certain that other economic metrics are moving in a negative direction, too. Indeed, using new data from Iranís foreign-exchange black market, I estimate that Iranís monthly inflation rate has reached 69.6%. With a monthly inflation rate this high (over 50%), Iran is undoubtedly experiencing hyperinflation.
    Steve Hanke, From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Hanke

    Steve H. Hanke is an American economist specializing in international economics, particularly monetary policy.

    He holds a doctoral degree from the University of Colorado at Boulder. Earlier in his teaching career, he taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and the University of California, Berkeley. As of 2005, he is a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.

    In 1981 and '82, during the Reagan administration, he was a Senior Economist on the Council of Economic Advisors. In 1995 and '96 he served as an advisor to Domingo Cavallo, the Minister of Economy of Argentina. He has also held formal economic-advisory positions with Uruguay and four countries in eastern Europe, especially Bulgaria where the Lev is pegged successfully to the Euro through a Currency board. In 1997 he began writing his "Point Of View" columns for Forbes magazine. In 1998 he became special counselor to the Economic and Monetary Resilience Council of Indonesia, and continues in that role as of 2005.
    Sapere Aude

  7. #87
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Montreal
    Posts
    1,602

    Default Yet another Israel-Iran-US wargame...

    Technically it isn't a wargame this time--more of a US policy options exercise--but Newsweek now jumps on the bandwagon with its own crisis simulation.

    ...the upshot of the simulation is a sobering one: Washington could quickly lose control of events after an Israeli strike on Iranís nuclear facilities. If Iran attacks Americans or goes after Israel too aggressively, even an administration wishing to avoid another war in the Middle East might find itself in the middle of one.
    You'll find my commentary on it at PAXsims, and a frequently updated list of all publicly-discussed crisis games on the topic at the (professional wargaming) blog Wargaming Connection.
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  8. #88
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Montreal
    Posts
    1,602

    Default Israel vs Iran: The First 48 Hours

    Israel's Institute for National Security Studies recently wargamed the first 48 hours of an Israeli attack against Iran.

    The game was also the subject of a documentary by Channel 4 (UK).

    More commentary at PAXsims and Wargaming Connection.
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  9. #89
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default More Middle East nukes, or none?

    A Lowy Institute blog post:
    what is equally staggering is the almost total absence of argument for complete nuclear disarmament in the Middle East....But even if you're suspicious of the ideological case for abolition, consider the pragmatic and ruthlessly realist case for arguing that, if Israel is going to insist Iran not get the bomb, Israel too ought to abolish its deterrent.

    My logic is simple. With regard to Iran's nuclear program, Israel faces one of three possible futures:1) Israel has nuclear weapons but Iran does not; 2)
    Both Israel and Iran have nuclear weapons; 3) Neither Israel or Iran has nuclear weapons. Which scenario is better for Israel's security?
    Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...bout-none.aspx

    Hard to imagine Israel even considering this, but an interesting argument.
    davidbfpo

  10. #90
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default Inspecting Iran: some lessons and observations

    A fascinating WSJ article: 'How Iran Went Nuclear' and subtitled:
    Veteran weapons inspector Olli Heinonen on how the U.N.'s 'Stockholm Syndrome' has aided Tehran's drive for the bombóand why an unsettling secret may be lurking in the Iranian desert.
    Amazing that a "walk-in" gave two key clues as to what Iran was building. Then he notes:
    People talk a lot about how intelligence has penetrated all this, but if you go back to the nuclear programs which have been revealed [elsewhere], they all came with a surprise. If there is no undeclared installation today..it will be the first time in 20 years that Iran doesn't have one.
    There is more on Iran and the IAEA. Plus that perennial concern, Pakistan. Then he adds:
    Saudi Arabia may already be on the move.

    In 2011, the kingdom announced plans to build 16 nuclear power reactors by 2030. "That's actually a funny number," Mr. Heinonen saysójust what a country would need to justify developing domestic fuel-cycle capabilities that could have both civilian and military uses. "If you want to maintain your own uranium enrichment, that's the right number. . . . It's a perfect match." He adds: "Remember, there was no one military program which took place without civilian. It's always under the civilian umbrella."
    Link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...pinion_LEADTop
    davidbfpo

  11. #91
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Montreal
    Posts
    1,602

    Default another Israel-Iran wargame

    Here are the results of another Israel vs Iran wargame, this time using the commercial board game "Persian Incursion" with modified rules to reflect the political and military situation as of early 2013:

    http://paxsims.wordpress.com/2013/02/28/virtually-bombing-iran-and-limits-of-real-military-power/
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  12. #92
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default Inspecting Iran: some lessons and observations (Part 2)

    A "lurker" has responded to the earlier posting:
    The author, David Feith, is the son of Douglas Feith, the #3 in the US DoD who took over production of "intelligence" to manufacture the case for invading Iraq in 2003. David Feith is even more strident in his views than his father.

    Olli Heinonen, the former IAEA official, has an axe to grind with many of those with whom he worked and has spent years talking about - and, in my opinion, is hyping the Iran threat. A lot of his claims don't actually match the current intelligence.

    The walk-in story is sensationalist rubbish. The Natanz tip came from the People's Mujahedin of Iran - the group whose paramilitary arm was on the US terrorist list until recently. Heinonen's story covers this up and actually doesn't add anything new.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-05-2013 at 02:16 PM.
    davidbfpo

  13. #93
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default Iran 'has not yet decided to build a bomb'

    Who said that? The head of Israel's military intelligence, Major General Amir Kochavi. Was it reported by the MSM? No.

    He said that, while Iran is developing its nuclear programme in 2013, it:
    ..has not yet decided to build a bomb.
    Here's the catch: those who rely on Western media are unlikely to learn of this.
    So with hat tip to Enduring America read on:http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/...-story-fr.html
    davidbfpo

  14. #94
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default What's up William?

    In what appears to be a very carefully worded letter to William Hague, UK Foreign Secretary, a parliamentary committee chair asks what exactly is the UK's policy?

    Having read a little recently on the subject and listened to experts the letter appears to seek an explanation for those beyond the UK parliament, on the possible use of military force that the public will understand.

    Link:http://www.parliament.uk/documents/c...0on%20Iran.pdf
    davidbfpo

  15. #95
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default RUSI Briefing Paper: Iran - Red Lines and Grey Areas

    By one account, over the past fifteen years Iranís nuclear programme has crossed no less than seven so-called Ďred linesí set by the United States or Israel. As Iran has crossed these lines, it has incurred the most punitive and protracted countermeasures ever imposed on a suspected nuclear proliferator. But it has not faced conventional military action. More recently, however, the idiom of war-triggering red lines has become widespread and central to the discourse on Iran.

    This Briefing Paper takes stock of the various war-triggering red lines that Iranís adversaries have set, and those that they might later set, with a particular focus on those associated with a realistic risk of war. This paper does not endorse the wisdom of imposing these red lines, but rather seeks only to discuss what they mean, how they are expressed, and how they might be interpreted and misinterpreted.

    As Iranís nuclear programme has grown over time, policy-makers have been faced with the question of whether and where they should draw red lines for Tehran. The United States and Israel have already drawn red lines, effectively warning Iran that building nuclear weapons or accumulating too much uranium would trigger war. But even these supposedly clear threats are marked by areas of ambiguity. This leaves unanswered questions as to what would and what would not be seen as grounds for military action Ė and therefore what Iran might be deterred from doing.
    Link to the seventeen page report:http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/Iran_Red_Lines.pdf
    davidbfpo

  16. #96
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17į 5' 11N, Longitude 120į 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Foreign Affairs on the Iranian transition...

    http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...hamen_4-062013

    Why Rouhani Won -- And Why Khamenei Let Him

    Four years ago, after the dubious reelection of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian streets were filled with protestors demanding to know what had happened to their votes. This weekend, the voters finally got their answer -- and, once more, they filled the countryís streets. This time, though, they were celebrating as the government confirmed that Hassan Rouhani, the presidential candidate who had campaigned on promises of reform and reopening to the world, had won an overwhelming victory.

    The election of Rouhani, a centrist cleric who has been close to Iranís apex of power since the 1979 revolution, is an improbably auspicious end to the Ahmadinejad era. Rouhani is a blunt pragmatist with plenty of experience maneuvering within Iranís theocratic system. He is far too sensible to indulge in a power grab ŗ la Ahmadinejad. And, as a cleric, he assuages the fears of the Islamic Republicís religious class. He embraced reformist rhetoric during the campaign, but will not deviate too far from the systemís principles, the foremost of which is the primacy of the Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Rouhaniís focus on the economic costs of Ahmadinejadís mismanagement resonates with the regimeís traditionalists as well as with a population battered by a decade of intensifying hardship and repression. All in all, the new president might benefit from a broader base of support than any in Iranís post-revolutionary history, which will be an important asset as he seeks to navigate the country out of isolation and economic crisis....
    ďThe whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginaryĒ

    H.L. Mencken

  17. #97
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    11,074

    Default Iran is Not the Problem, Wider Proliferation Is

    Iran is Not the Problem, Wider Proliferation Is

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  18. #98
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,349

    Default If Attacked, How Would Iran Respond?

    Whilst diplomacy has excursions to the media foreground others ponder and write. Hat tip to John Schindler for this article and his Tweets say:
    Interesting piece on how Iran might respond to an Israeli strike; more optimistic view of outcomes than many...1 of the authors of last piece is MG (ret) Amos Yadlin, former head of AMAN (IDF Intelligence), worth noting, now INSS director.
    Ah the article is 'If Attacked, How Would Iran Respond?' (13 pgs) and the summary:
    Many in the West and in Israel have warned of a tough Iranian response and escalation into regional war in the event of a military strike against the Iranian nuclear program. Close scrutiny, however, suggests that these assessments are exaggerated, with the likely Iranian response far more limited. Moreover, such overestimation serves the Iranians, providing an excellent tool for deterrence, and dilutes the goal of a credible military threat prompting the regime to agree to a diplomatic solution. This article analyzes Iranís capabilities and the range of possible Iranian response toward Israel, including the response capabilities of Iranís allies in the region, particularly Syria and Hizbollah. The article challenges the scenario of a regional war in the wake of a military strike against Iranís nuclear program, and offers recommendations for a response to the anticipated Iranian retaliation that would reduce the likelihood of extensive regional escalation.
    Link:http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id...articleid=5965
    davidbfpo

  19. #99
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    11,074

    Default Iran Nuclear Deal Sealed After Decades-Long Dispute

    Iran Nuclear Deal Sealed After Decades-Long Dispute

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  20. #100
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Montreal
    Posts
    1,602

    Default Target: Iran

    Feel the need to bomb Iran? Here's your chanceóthe March/April 2014 edition of Modern War magazine included Target: Iran, a solitaire (manual) wargame of a fictional coalition strike against Iran. It isn't exactly a high-fidelity simulation of the military or political dynamics, but it is quite fun to play.

    Review at PAXsims: http://paxsims.wordpress.com/2014/06...w-target-iran/
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 316
    Last Post: 11-09-2011, 04:58 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •