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Thread: Iran, Nukes and Diplomacy 2011-2014

  1. #101
    Council Member Brian Hanley's Avatar
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    Default Failed Iranian nuclear talks

    It appears obvious to me that the failure of Iran nuke talks is a response to yesterday's call in Congress to send anti-tank weapons to Ukraine's Kiev government. In fact, when I heard that speech yesterday morning, my immediate thought was that some a-hole did it deliberately to block the Iranian talks from working out on Obama's watch. I think they knew exactly what the Russian response would be and wanted it that way. Easiest thing in the world to pull off.

    Vladimir, I think Netanyahu's boys played you. Not that they weren't serious about sending weapons to Ukraine. Not that they aren't allied with making more money for military contractors. However, Merkel has been stopping anti-tank weapons since February. Europe would rather see Russia roll over Ukraine and wipe out the revolutionaries who staged the coup than see another Europe-centered world war erupt out of Ukraine.

    I can understand though, why Vladimir Putin took that action. If I were him, I would probably do the same thing, even knowing what I know. It's a bargaining chip with the Obama administration. Kerry is in Kiev today, and he's got a big Obama legacy project on his back. If I were Putin, I wouldn't trust us as far as he could spit because the USA's word doesn't mean much, and this administration is still running its Russia policy out of the Ukrainian refugee camp from WWII. In fact, most of what we believe we know about Russia came to us through those Nazi-collaborator refugees who fled Ukraine and dreamed of taking it back. That's the same crew who engineered the takeover of most of Ukraine from Kiev. (The same boys who in Kiev recently banned displays of Soviet anti-Nazi medals, etc. and declared the Nazi collaborators the only true heroes of WWII.)

    Why are we letting the Ukrainians run our Russia policy? Inertia plus this administration is unusually lacking in backbone or positions on most major issues. So it lays back. Plus the Israel lobby finds it convenient at times like this to fire off a shot in congress. Russia's realpolitik today is that the worse the Middle East gets, the less likely the USA is to intervene in Ukraine. For Israel, the more the Arabs kill each other, the better off they feel they are. And so we have strange bedfellows in the Iran nuke talks.

  2. #102
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default

    Brian,

    I do not follow the talks with Iran over nuclear matters closely, so perhaps your vantage point gives you this perspective.

    The BBC today reports the talks again are stalled. It appears this is not a "black or white" situation, with all parties doing a diplomatic show:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33473407

    A few days ago The Independent reported on the diplomacy at work and the multiple reasons for it:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-10370214.html

    Neither of them report on the involvement of the US Congress this week, nor any Russian public response to possible arms supplies to the Ukraine. I am sure Outlaw 09 would have commented in the Ukraine thread if this possibility was anymore than bluster - however orchestrated - in the US Congress.

    As for this sentence, it is simply laughably inaccurate:
    Europe would rather see Russia roll over Ukraine and wipe out the revolutionaries who staged the coup than see another Europe-centered world war erupt out of Ukraine.
    Europe would not wish to 'see' such aggression, let alone a 'wipe out'. Yes it has been weak, for many reasons and whilst some "beat the drum" few see a world war as likely.

    Anyway back to how apparently US policy is run by refugees and Nazis, that too - from my vantage point - is barely credible. One question if this was true surely arms supplies would have moved long ago, not a speech in Congress?

    Yes there are some Ukrainian nationalists whose views are mired in the past; they are a minority and from my own experience when visiting the Ukraine the majority have learnt both Nazi Germany, its local allies and the Soviet Union soaked the land in blood.
    davidbfpo

  3. #103
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Not a failure now?

    Talking with Iran has always been a contentious issue on SWC, although muted of late.

    So now the diplomats have signed the agreement, here is one commentary by Professor Scott Lucas, of B'ham University:http://eaworldview.com/2015/07/iran-...ear-agreement/
    davidbfpo

  4. #104
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Seems like a sensible solution with a pragmatic road map with checks and milestones. Nobody knows what will happen but it looks like a worthy try.

    There is still a regime in Iran but still I hope that the Vatanam and it's people with it's great past will do fine...

    P.S: So did (Western) sanctions work?
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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