Green on Blue: causes and responses (merged thread)

[Entropy]

So are we at the point where force protection matters more than winning, or even holding?

Winning? Our strategy was never about winning, it was about getting out of dodge with some semblance of honor.

[carl]

It will be interesting to see, in the sense that the way a ship founders exactly is interesting to a naval architect, how fast things begin to unravel from here. It will also be interesting, in a sort of bureaucratic forensic sense, to see how everybody on our side scrambles to blame somebody else or explain how things are actually going well.

[davidbfpo]

Afghan 'green-on-blue' attacks

2007 - 2 attacks, 2 Isaf soldiers dead
2008 - 2 attacks, 2 dead
2009 - 6 attacks, 10 dead
2010 - 6 attacks, 20 dead
2011 - 21 attacks, 35 dead
2012 (so far) - 36 attacks, 51 dead

Source: International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) via BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19632779

[Fuchs]

The expansion of this activity in 2011 does not match the rather steady expansion of general incidents over the last years.

It should be possible to identify something that changed in 2011 or 2010 as an important influence on the problem.

[TheCurmudgeon]

The expansion of this activity in 2011 does not match the rather steady expansion of general incidents over the last years.

It should be possible to identify something that changed in 2011 or 2010 as an important influence on the problem.

Maybe this? Obama announces Afghanistan troop withdrawal plan June 22, 2011.

They know we are leaving so they don't have to pretend that they like us anymore. Vast oversimplification, but you never know...

[TheCurmudgeon]

Nato says it is restricting operations with Afghan troops following a string of deadly attacks on its personnel by rogue Afghan security forces.

Only large operations will now be conducted jointly, with joint patrols evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Nato curbs Afghan joint patrols over 'insider' attacks

Doesn't really address the inside-the-wire threat.

[Fuchs]

Maybe this? Obama announces Afghanistan troop withdrawal plan June 22, 2011.

They know we are leaving so they don't have to pretend that they like us anymore. Vast oversimplification, but you never know...

Really? They think they won so they double their efforts to kill, including kill themselves?
Must be some non-European logic, for sure.

[Entropy]

Really? They think they won so they double their efforts to kill, including kill themselves?
Must be some non-European logic, for sure.

I'd have to look up the details, but I think it was 2011 when the mentoring mission increased substantially. So, there were a lot more ISAF troops embedded with and training a lot more Afghans.

[JMA]

Really? They think they won so they double their efforts to kill, including kill themselves?
Must be some non-European logic, for sure.

Does 'European' logic matter?

The problem is how many members of ISAF understand Afghan logic?

[TheCurmudgeon]

Really? They think they won so they double their efforts to kill, including kill themselves?
Must be some non-European logic, for sure.

I have to agree with JMA on the logic thing. The way we think does not matter.

But I also doubt that the announced withdrawal was an important factor. The increase in forces and in mission is probably the largest single factor. If it was, then nothing really changed. The increase is simply mathematical. Increase the number of trainers and Afghans being trained and you increase the number killed.

[tequila]

The expansion of this activity in 2011 does not match the rather steady expansion of general incidents over the last years.

It should be possible to identify something that changed in 2011 or 2010 as an important influence on the problem.

I imagine this might have something to do with it:

Since 2009, the army has grown more than 56 percent, Hill said. In the past year, it's grown by about 50,000 soldiers, more than 23,000 of them are in training, and the army consistently meets its recruiting goals, he added.

It's tough to imagine any army growing that fast without loosening vetting standards or adopting a simple "push 'em out" style of training. And that's just the ANA - I can't imagine standards in the ANP, much less the Afghan Local Police.