AFRICOM and the perception mess

[KingJaja]

Stan,

So you worked with Mobutu? I actually think that the Cold War was a wasted period in Africa. The US pursued very narrowly defined goals (Soviet containment), missed the forest for the trees, hastily withdrew when the Soviet Union collapsed, left a vacuum and raced back when the Chinese and Al Qaeda appeared to be exploiting that vacuum.

(Your history makes me wonder when next you'll head for the exit. Anyway, I digress...)

Please what really are America's long-term goals in Congo? Is it to contain Chinese influence or create a sustainable environment for trade and prosperity or is it merely to satisfy the expectations of NGO crowd or the fear of regional destabilisation?

I suspect your policy is more driven by threats (China, Regional Destabilisation) and managing the expectations of Jeffery Sachs. These are great, but the Congolese will be eternally grateful to America if it could craft a bolder policy driven more by opportunities than fears and threats.

Congo DRC needs to be shaken up. The people of Congo have had a raw deal since King Leopold and the Force Publique, they lack the internal capacity to reform themselves and no one in Africa (Nigeria included), has the resources or diplomatic capacity to do that.

I am told that 5.4 million have died between 1998 - 2008. Those numbers are staggering. Those numbers tell us that the political architecture of Congo needs to be renegotiated. Let's stop the pretense and break the country into component parts, starting with Katanga.

[Dayuhan]

I am told that 5.4 million have died between 1998 - 2008. Those numbers are staggering. Those numbers tell us that the political architecture of Congo needs to be renegotiated. Let's stop the pretense and break the country into component parts, starting with Katanga.

I can see the logic in that, but I can't see any way that it would be appropriate or possible for the US to initiate such a move.

Look back at the creation of AFRICOM... this represented a very minor shift, yet it was presented, and largely accepted, as evidence of a sinister American grab for African influence and resources. Imagine how the same people - "the Als", as you described them - would spin an American-initiated effort to dissolve the Congolese government and partition the country. Would that not be interpreted, presented, and accepted as evidence of the most naked kind of paleo-colonialism... no matter what the actual intention?

I do not personally think it would be wise or necessary for the US to try to directly counter or contain Chinese influence in Africa. We have a saying about allowing someone to have the rope with which to hang themselves...

[M-A Lagrange]

Congo DRC needs to be shaken up. The people of Congo have had a raw deal since King Leopold and the Force Publique, they lack the internal capacity to reform themselves and no one in Africa (Nigeria included), has the resources or diplomatic capacity to do that.

I am told that 5.4 million have died between 1998 - 2008. Those numbers are staggering. Those numbers tell us that the political architecture of Congo needs to be renegotiated. Let's stop the pretense and break the country into component parts, starting with Katanga.

Kingjaja:

Please, the numbers are between 3.6 and 4.2 million people who died during that periode due to the consequences of war (displacement, malnutrition, banditry...).
Combats have made approximately between 250 000 and 500 000 victimes directly.

Also, the political architecture of DRC has been renegociated by the congolese themselves in Sun city through the dialogue inter congolais. They came out with a decentralised state in which provinces are semi autonomous and have provincial parliament. The decentralisation had to be accelerated in 2006 after the first elections since independance as said in the constitution.
In 2011 Joseph Kabila, DRC president decided to postpound indefinitely the decentralisation after not implementing it during 5 years. No congolese reacted because they are used to their 11 provinces.

Also, Katanga province is hightly controled by Kinshasa which is 3000 km far away. Actual president Joseph Kabila is originating from Katanga and Maniema. The Baluba from North Katanga are in power in Kinshasa. The actual president of the electoral commition is a Baluba from Katanga. In an interview he said: "before, I wanted to become a soldier to become very rich."
The actual governor of Katanga, who is the brother of the man controling all the logistic road export of mineral from Katanga to Mombassa has been harrassed by the members of president circle because he wanted more transparency in the mining exploitation in Katanga. He extended a ban on conflict mineral set by the president himself from Kivu and Maniema provinces to Katanga. By doing so he allegedly stopped illegal exports of conflict mineral from Maniema through Katanga. Maniema is a province where business is controled by DRC president twin sister...

The only people who want Katanga independance are radical extremist from congolese extrem right. In the 90, their movement, at that called UFERI, lead by the actual president of Katanga parliament killed more than 100 000 people because they were Baluba from Kasai.

Shall I continue to explain why your understanding of DRC is just wrong and dangerous?

[Stan]

Hei Jaja !
You always have only the hard questions !

Stan,

So you worked with Mobutu? I actually think that the Cold War was a wasted period in Africa. The US pursued very narrowly defined goals (Soviet containment), missed the forest for the trees, hastily withdrew when the Soviet Union collapsed, left a vacuum and raced back when the Chinese and Al Qaeda appeared to be exploiting that vacuum.

Yep, worked right inside his presidential palace at Gbadolite in 1984 as a team leader instructing on armored vehicles I quickly picked up Lingala and began my bastardized version of Belgian Frog too !
Those were the days when Kinshasa was truly "Kin La Belle" !

There were no defined goals back then, and the EUCOM objectives were at best foggy. My team ended up all over the country and our mission statement was baffled by the Zairois. SIGH ! We had Russians and Cubans across the river trading diamonds for anything that remotely appeared to be military hardware, rebel insurgents 300 clicks west, expats building and maintaining a power dam, and very hungry businessmen mining everything that Zaire stood for. A vast country with no infrastructure outside of perhaps Bas-Zaire and Shaba Provinces.

(Your history makes me wonder when next you'll head for the exit. Anyway, I digress...)

It wasn't intended to be an "exit strategy" and you have a very valid point and concern. Sitting in your shoes I would also be worried.

Our history in Zaire was strange for most of us working there. The end of the Cold War did not have to mean the end of Zaire, but the US Administration and half of Europe were no longer in need of a dictator and pushed for a democratic Zaire along with the Zairois. Well, as JMA so eloquently put, how do you force free and democratic elections on a country that never had them and has no need for elections (Uncle Mo was not leaving) ?. The pace that the Clinton Administration pressed on the Embassy was unrealistic for even a modern western culture. Our Ambassador, a tall and attractive white female, would have the honor of addressing Mobutu with the plan
The rest you know !

I was optimistic when Obama was elected, and I'm sure the Africans were also relieved and had some high hopes (Americans did).

Please what really are America's long-term goals in Congo? Is it to contain Chinese influence or create a sustainable environment for trade and prosperity or is it merely to satisfy the expectations of NGO crowd or the fear of regional destabilisation?

Gotta answer your questions backwards:
The NGO crowd has no real influence and they are quick to back off when one considers where all their operating money comes from. Don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Trade and prosperity were always on the table, but, as you already described perfectly, the Congolese govt. will only play along until the next tranche of aid is provided. We can change the name of the country, but we will never manage to change the Zairois mentality by playing an American game with Zairian rules. I believe an open trade policy is also on the table for Nigeria, but I don't know what the conditions are with the exception of our stupid selective-vision/hearing human rights policies tied directly to foreign aid. With that, I'll answer number 3..

The (current) USG concern about China is her provision of unconditional foreign aid. China achieves diplomatic, military, and economic influence in African nations in exchange for unconditional foreign aid, regardless of the benefiting country's human rights record or political practices. That's probably not good for anyone in Africa but dictators love free cash
Dayuhan has an excellent post to you on China. He hit every single salient point as if he lived in Zaire with me. The only thing he might have missed was how much China got involved with the Zairian Army. That spelled real trouble when we are trying to clean up what the FAZ has been accustomed to doing for 3 decades.

What I despise about US foreign policy with regards to financial aid is we often end up selectively blind or deaf when we need to; It should never get to that point. If we're going to get on our high horse with moral judgement, then we should stay there.

...but the Congolese will be eternally grateful to America if it could craft a bolder policy driven more by opportunities than fears and threats.

I agree but I have no clue how to get there. My programs are also partly financed by the USG and there are more rules than I can even begin to comprehend. Estonia is a small country and very easy to manage. Congo is huge and Africa is a giant. AFRICOM was designed to handle that while trying to battle for the same pot of money the rest of us are expected to share. A real hard nut to crack.

I am told that 5.4 million have died between 1998 - 2008. Those numbers are staggering. Those numbers tell us that the political architecture of Congo needs to be renegotiated. Let's stop the pretense and break the country into component parts, starting with Katanga.

More war stories:
In 94 I literally watched over 4,000 people die a day as a member of a 3-man team. That was the longest 6 months of my life.

Inchi ya Katanga
Katanga has been saying that since 1960 and things would be slightly different if they had nothing to mine and sell. Let's be realistic, Katanga constitutes almost 50% of all revenues even today. Would your break up of the DRC include equal shares of revenues ? How do you propose to prop up the remainder of the country ? Be careful, the Russians are also trying to get into Katanga and nearly support their desire to become and independent State. That my friend is what they do all over the world and make the Chinese look like amateurs.

Regards, Stan

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan has an excellent post to you on China. He hit every single salient point as if he lived in Zaire with me.

Interesting... I've never been there, but I guess that leopard wears the same spots in a lot of places. What's your read on how people were reacting to the Chinese presence, both on the level of the major project investments and the street-level commercial presence?

[Stan]

Hey Dayuhan,

In the early 80s the Chinese presence was not so apparent in town, as the majority were military “advisors” (technicians) working on tanks and patrol boats outside the capital, and training the 41st Commandos in north-eastern Zaire. With perhaps the exception of our weekly attaché briefs and several sponsored visits to their sites, I would have told you there were no Chinese in Zaire.

In early 1990 however the Chinese came back to (ahem) assess things and it was estimated that over a thousand Chinese were in Zaire. In true fashion, the women encroached on small shop owners selling jewelry and clothing to tourists at rock bottom prices. That led to conflict at the markets and the Chinese moved out and set up shop in Gombé, the heart of the business sector. By now the majority of western financial aid was gone and 91 saw social and political upheaval like never before. Interestingly enough, most of the foreigners evacuated leaving only the Chinese and some Lebanese diamond dealers behind.

The Chinese were really good at playing on Zairian fears, warning Zaire and the west about Russians and Cubans, and used that to their every advantage. The trouble with most of us (the west) was we were not convinced, but as our financial aid dwindled (only humanitarian aid was permitted), our voices of reason were no longer welcomed.

Interesting... I've never been there, but I guess that leopard wears the same spots in a lot of places. What's your read on how people were reacting to the Chinese presence, both on the level of the major project investments and the street-level commercial presence?

[Stan]

Shall I continue to explain why your understanding of DRC is just wrong and dangerous?

Hey MA,
I was wondering just how long you would lurk around in the African threads