I suspect that the 'projected costs' of running an Afghan army after the withdrawal of most Westerners is a very tricky thing.

The relatively high pays for indigenous troops (all parties) is no doubt a result of the influx of US-$. The pay levels have to shrink once the dollar transfers of all kinds shrink.

Afghanistan can easily sustain a 350k personnel army on its own, all it needs is to raise enough revenue and make sure price levels are not terribly distorted by foreign money. You only need guns, ammo, boots, clothes, food and a meagre extra pay in indigenous cash to run an army. The current situation is ridiculous and current costs are a poor basis for projecting future costs.



There is the major problem of sticky wags, though. It's difficult to actually cut wages, especially if the employed men can mutiny.


This was only a tiny glimpse of the many problems and challenges caused by the limited-duration influx of foreign cash, of course..