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    Default Al-Qaeda in Africa (merged thread)

    At the Threats Watch blog - Grapes of Wrath: America's Recipe for al-Qaeda's Victory by Steve Schippert.

    The US State Department Supports All But Somalis in Somalia

    It’s ‘The Other Spring Offensive.’ In order to create an eastern toehold on the Horn of Africa and create an Islamist Crescent from Mogadishu to Morocco, al-Qaeda is recommitting to re-taking Somalia through their once-ousted Southern Garrison, the Islamic Courts Union. With al-Qaeda’s clear and overt strategic aims on conquering Somalia, one would think that, at the very least, America’s economic might would be employed to support Somalis practically begging for the tools to do the bulk of the fighting themselves on all fronts - militarily, governmentally and socially. Think again.

    This week, I wrote an analytical commentary for FrontPage Magazine titled Do or Die in Somalia that looked at the situation on the ground there but, more importantly, also at America’s inexplicably disengaged stance in a clear front-line battle with al-Qaeda. Given that al-Qaeda’s goal is to destroy the UN-recognized Transitional Federal Government and replace it with an Islamist-run state governed by strict adherence to Shari’a law, this American disengagement is difficult to fathom...

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    U.S. allowed Ethiopian arms deal with North Korea
    By Michael R. Gordon and Mark Mazzetti
    Published: April 7, 2007

    Three months after the United States successfully pressed the United Nations to impose strict sanctions on North Korea because of the country's nuclear test, Bush administration officials allowed Ethiopia to complete a secret arms purchase from the North, in what appears to be a violation of the restrictions, according to senior American officials.

    The United States allowed the arms delivery to go through in January in part because Ethiopia was in the midst of a military offensive against Islamic militias inside Somalia, a campaign that aided the American policy of combating religious extremists in the Horn of Africa.

    American officials said that they were still encouraging Ethiopia to wean itself from its longstanding reliance on North Korea for cheap Soviet-era military equipment to supply its armed forces and that Ethiopian officials appeared receptive. But the arms deal is an example of the compromises that result from the clash of two foreign policy absolutes: the Bush administration's commitment to fighting Islamic radicalism and its effort to starve the North Korean government of money it could use to build up its nuclear weapons program.

    Since the Sept. 11 attacks, as the administration has made counterterrorism its top foreign policy concern, the White House has sometimes shown a willingness to tolerate misconduct by allies that it might otherwise criticize, like human rights violations in Central Asia and antidemocratic crackdowns in a number of Arab nations.

    It is also not the first time that the Bush administration has made an exception for allies in their dealings with North Korea. In 2002, Spain intercepted a ship carrying Scud missiles from North Korea to Yemen. At the time, Yemen was working with the United States to hunt members of Al Qaeda operating within its borders, and after its government protested, the United States asked that the freighter be released. Yemen said at the time that it was the last shipment from an earlier missile purchase and would not be repeated.

    American officials from a number of agencies described details of the Ethiopian episode on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal Bush administration deliberations.

    Several officials said they first learned that Ethiopia planned to receive a delivery of military cargo from North Korea when the country's government alerted the American Embassy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, after the adoption on Oct. 14 of the United Nations Security Council measure imposing sanctions.

    "The Ethiopians came back to us and said, 'Look, we know we need to transition to different customers, but we just can't do that overnight,' " said one American official, who added that the issue had been handled properly. "They pledged to work with us at the most senior levels."

    American intelligence agencies in late January reported that an Ethiopian cargo ship that was probably carrying tank parts and other military equipment had left a North Korean port.

    The value of the shipment is unclear, but Ethiopia purchased $20 million worth of arms from North Korea in 2001, according to American estimates, a pattern that officials said had continued. The United States gives Ethiopia millions of dollars of foreign aid and some nonlethal military equipment.

    After a brief debate in Washington, the decision was made not to block the arms deal and to press Ethiopia not to make future purchases.
    ...
    much more here:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/...07ETHIOPIA.php

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    Default African Jihad - Bin Laden's quest for the Horn of Africa

    Anyone read this book? I'm curious and might pick it up, but would like to know if it's worth the effort. These days, I only get to read on the throne...

    The African Jihad is a fascinating examination of the efforts by international jihadists to bring about their grand vision of Islamist hegemony in the greater Horn of Africa region. These efforts began with the collaboration between Al Qaeda and the National Islamic Front (NIF) government of Sudan. The NIF under the ideological leadership of Hasan al-Turabi and Al Qaeda under Osama bin Laden sought to channel the social, political and economic grievances of Muslim communities into a global jihadist narrative, and the NIF and Al Qaeda worked hand in glove to set up and/or support several, coordinated jihadist movements in the countries of Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. The combined Al Qaeda-NIF regional onslaught bequeathed a legacy of proxy wars and terrorism against Eritrea, Ethiopia and Uganda and Al Qaeda terror operations in Kenya and Tanzania. Dr. Gregory Alonso Pirio takes the story of Horn of Africa jihadism up to the defeat of Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia by the combined forces of Ethiopia and the Somali Transitional Federal Government in early 2007; Dr. Pirio demonstrates how a faction within Somalia’s Islamic Courts movement with historic ties to Al Qaeda had come to dominate the Islamic Court’s movement and threatened wider regional insecurity and the expansion of the Middle East conflict into Africa.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-26-2018 at 05:52 PM. Reason: 15,309v when a stand alone thread

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    Default al-Qaeda's rebirth in Africa

    Today, Halting Al-Qaeda's African Rebound, a six part article appeared in Canada's Troy Media. The article is worth a long read. Great background and insightful.

    Find it at http://www.troymedia.com/blog/2011/1...ebound-part-6/

    In part 2 Wilner states Of the many and varied violent non-state African groups that share some of al Qaeda’s ideological principles and practical goals, two currently stand out: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al Shabaab. Other prominent regional organizations, like the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), al-Itihaad al-Islaami (AIAI), Hizbul Islam, or the Armed Islamic Group (popularly known by its French name Groupe Islamique Armé, GIA) have largely been destroyed, disbanded, or rolled into other groups. While it is plausible that remnants of these organizations will regroup or that new terrorist organizations will be formed, the focus of international counterterrorism in Africa rests primarily on combatting and containing AQIM and al Shabaab."

    I want to spend a lot of time on this important article, then get back here with perceptions. I trust some of you will read and contribute to the discuss too.

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    Default Who and what exactly is Al Qaeda?

    I'm asking that question because I'm not sure.

    Some radical Islamic extremists are armed and have grudges against their home governments and the Western powers that support them, but does that make them Al Qaeda?

    Boko Haram for example, is not Al Qaeda and even if Boko Haram is associated with Al Qaeda, its association with Al Qaeda is not its defining characteristic. (I have discussed this at length in another thread).

    Western analysts really need to step outside the narrow "war on terrorism" framework and appreciate the real sources of instability and violence in the Sahel and the Maghreb.

    As long as there is widespread poverty and unemployment and as long as Islamist organisations continue to be the best positioned to provide social services. As long as governments are perceived as being weak and corrupt and as long as the West is perceived as being biased in support of Israel and the US is seen as waging war on Muslim countries - there will be terrorism against Western interests.

    To deal with the so-called "Al Qaeda", the World needs to (1) appreciate it is the economy, stupid (2) understand that you cannot solve these problems with drones and (3) prepare for a long struggle.

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    It has always been hard to tell the true believers from the opertunists who use the "AQ" label for personal gain and all the shades between those extremes. It also doesn't help when Islamist groups get arbitrarily get lumped together by lazy and/or ignorant analysts or commentators. Even among the true believers there are important distinctions to be made. Boko Haram, for instance, has made public statements affiliating itself with AQ and it has certainly shown a strong willingness to use violence but has shown little interest transnational terrorism. Although ostensibly an Islamist terrorist group, Boko Haram seems to derive more of its support from the frustration felt by young, poor and unemployed (a dangerous combination in any account) Muslims over the economic inequality between the majority Muslim north and Christian dominated south of Nigeria. That restive population has given Boko Haram a powerful weapon but leaves them vulnerable to positive economic changes in the north (sadly probably a distant hope right now).
    “Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    I'm asking that question because I'm not sure.
    It's a good question and it needs to be asked more often. All too often groups with quite peripheral links to AQ are simply classified as "AQ franchises", and it's assumed that they are extensions of AQ or have adopted the entire AQ agenda. That's not always the case, and we need to be more discriminating.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Western analysts really need to step outside the narrow "war on terrorism" framework and appreciate the real sources of instability and violence in the Sahel and the Maghreb.
    Agreed, but Western analysts also have to understand that not all instability and violence are any of their business or require a Western response. Unless it poses a direct threat to us - and not all Islamist or "AQ-linked" groups do - we're generally going to be better off letting it be. That may sound callous, but if we wade in and start trying to address instability and violence across these areas we are signing up for way more than we're prepared to deal with, and we're likely to step in the scheisse in a major way... IMO of course.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    As long as there is widespread poverty and unemployment and as long as Islamist organisations continue to be the best positioned to provide social services. As long as governments are perceived as being weak and corrupt and as long as the West is perceived as being biased in support of Israel and the US is seen as waging war on Muslim countries - there will be terrorism against Western interests.

    To deal with the so-called "Al Qaeda", the World needs to (1) appreciate it is the economy, stupid (2) understand that you cannot solve these problems with drones and (3) prepare for a long struggle.
    Largely true, but understanding these things and doing something about them are two very different things. There's not a whole lot the US, the West, or "the World" can do to change African economies: they suffer more than anything from bad governance, and that has to change from the inside. Certainly it's true that "governments are perceived as being weak and corrupt", and that perception is accurate: governments are weak and corrupt. Again, that's not something that can be changed from the outside.

    I'd agree that a more neutral stance toward Israel (already beginning) and less war in the Muslim world would be goals worth pursuing. I do not think that winding down Iraq and Afghanistan would reduce the probability of terrorist attack on the US, though. If anything, reduced US intervention is likely to produce new attacks aimed at provoking new intervention, because AQ can't survive without intervention.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Agreed, but Western analysts also have to understand that not all instability and violence are any of their business or require a Western response. Unless it poses a direct threat to us - and not all Islamist or "AQ-linked" groups do - we're generally going to be better off letting it be. That may sound callous, but if we wade in and start trying to address instability and violence across these areas we are signing up for way more than we're prepared to deal with, and we're likely to step in the scheisse in a major way... IMO of course.
    I agree with you.

    I don't claim to be an expert on Somalia, but I cannot see the positive impact of the long US involvement in Somalia. Secondly, there seems to be a new twist to Boko Haram - certain elements of Boko Haram could be thugs hired by Northern Nigerian politicians. It seems to be a tangled mess that even the best Nigerian analysts find difficult to understand.

    It is not Al Qaeda and it doesn't have a simple solution.

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    Although ostensibly an Islamist terrorist group, Boko Haram seems to derive more of its support from the frustration felt by young, poor and unemployed (a dangerous combination in any account) Muslims over the economic inequality between the majority Muslim north and Christian dominated south of Nigeria. That restive population has given Boko Haram a powerful weapon but leaves them vulnerable to positive economic changes in the north (sadly probably a distant hope right now).
    It is not that far-fetched. Economic development is triggered by enlightened self-interest. We are rapidly reaching that tripping point. Our politicians would be stupid not to understand that 30 - 40 million unemployed/underemployed youth are a ticking time bomb that would task the capabilities of the entire US military, not to talk about the Nigerian military.

    There several possible scenarios. One could be payment of a monthly stipend to the most troublesome unemployed youth (the rudiments of a social security system) or our politicians could finally summon the courage to do something about the Northern Nigeria.

    Whatever happens, doing nothing is not an option, and our politicians know it. What they decide to do will depend on what they perceive to be the least risky course of action.

    On a lighter note, Boko Haram has threatened to attack the offices of Nigerian political parties and the reaction on the street is like, when can you start?. Political party offices are being feverishly painted over.

    Most Officials and Staff of major political parties in the Federal Capital Territory yesterday avoided their offices apparently because of the threat by the Boko Haram sect to attack political party offices.

    The sect had on Thursday threatened to focus its attacks on political party offices and some key officials of the Government, including President Goodluck Jonathan and the Senate President, David Mark.

    A visit to the headquarters of the Peoples' Democratic Party at the Wadata Plaza, Wuse Zone 5, Abuja revealed that most of the offices were deserted.

    The situation was the same when our reporters visited the headquarter of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC located in Utako Area of Abuja and that of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN in Zone 6.
    http://allafrica.com/stories/201111260116.html

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    Default Terrorism in Africa - 2012 Predictions

    Here are my predictions for terrorism in Africa in 2012 from my blog www.terrorisminafrica.com

    The next twelve months will most likely see the LRA being snuffed out or reduced into a very small, yet no less violent, local threat in the CAR, but far off its course of destabilizing or overthrowing the Ugandan government.

    The AQIM will not go much beyond their occasional abduction of foreigners, yet the MOJWA splitter group has threatened to step up jihadist operations in West Africa. They could well keep their word and become Africa’s newest terrorist threat. The deadly wild card here is the large number of Libyan weapons that have found their way into north Africa and the Sahel.

    Al-Shabaab will continue to be kept somewhat in check in Somalia, but they could reach deep into Kenya or Uganda in an attempt to intimidate those countries’ or cause over reactions by them or the United States resulting on easier recruitment of Muslims within East Africa. As long as Somalia remains void of an effective central government, the more chance that al-Qaeda will use it for training and hiding out. If the 2012 election in Kenya turns violent as it did last time, it could be a distraction to role in Somalia.

    Boko Haram will remain the most active terrorist group in Africa with its operations confined to Nigeria. Its operations may well ignite a widespread civil battle between Nigeria’s Christians and Muslims. The rumored involvement by the United States could become a reality if the oil rich Delta region falls into turmoil.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    Boko Haram will remain the most active terrorist group in Africa with its operations confined to Nigeria. Its operations may well ignite a widespread civil battle between Nigeria’s Christians and Muslims. The rumored involvement by the United States could become a reality if the oil rich Delta region falls into turmoil.
    I don't wish to quibble with your predictions, but, Boko Haram isn't even in the top 50 list. In fact, I can't find a single secure source that even lists them as anything ? Who established them as terrorists ?

    You are also well aware of the fact that the Christians and Muslims have been doing church bombings well before (2 or even 3 decades) Boko Haram came to be. Right ?

    What rumored USA assistance are you referring to? USG links please.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    What rumored USA assistance are you referring to? USG links please.
    There is a rumor of imminent US involvement in every corner of the planet. I understand that in the deepest south the Penguins are expecting ANTARCTICOM aggression any day now.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    There is a rumor of imminent US involvement in every corner of the planet. I understand that in the deepest south the Penguins are expecting ANTARCTICOM aggression any day now.
    Nah, no drone support so they won't make a move. Not enough Predators to go around.
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    I was unable to find the new COCOM, so this will have to do

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    There is a rumor of imminent US involvement in every corner of the planet. I understand that in the deepest south the Penguins are expecting ANTARCTICOM aggression any day now.
    Attached Images Attached Images
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    I don't wish to quibble with your predictions, but, Boko Haram isn't even in the top 50 list. In fact, I can't find a single secure source that even lists them as anything ? Who established them as terrorists ?
    Top 50 list of what? The are local terrorists. There very operations make them such. What I say is, "Boko Haram is the most ACTIVE terrorist group on the planet." Ok, that may be a bit of stretch, I am not as aware of the world as I am Africa. Yet, one would be hard pressed to find as many operations carried out by any group over the past 6 months.

    It is no surprise that, to me, that Boko Haram does not appear on any "top 50 list", if such exists. Americans and westerners are mostly unaware of or discount much of what goes on in Africa.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    You are also well aware of the fact that the Christians and Muslims have been doing church bombings well before (2 or even 3 decades) Boko Haram came to be. Right ?
    Exactly, I am not ignorant or unaware of that fact. What Nigeria is on the verge of right now is a much wider spread battle between Christians and Muslims than has been seen there in recent history. Many who live there see this coming, in fact it may well already be spreading.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    What rumored USA assistance are you referring to? USG links please.
    If there were a USG link for it, it wouldn't be a rumor would it? The rumors about US involvement have been discussed right here on this forum in the Nigeria area. It is a rumor, sure not much different than rumors of involvement elsewhere. The only difference is Nigeria is Africa's most populous country, there is substantial oil heading for the USA everyday from Nigeria's Delta region. Are our memories too short to remember what oil has to do with US military involvement? But still it is only a rumor, don't get so upset, YET.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    Top 50 list of what? The are local terrorists. There very operations make them such. What I say is, "Boko Haram is the most ACTIVE terrorist group on the planet." Ok, that may be a bit of stretch, I am not as aware of the world as I am Africa. Yet, one would be hard pressed to find as many operations carried out by any group over the past 6 months.

    It is no surprise that, to me, that Boko Haram does not appear on any "top 50 list", if such exists. Americans and westerners are mostly unaware of or discount much of what goes on in Africa.
    Just a few of the watch lists that you can freely access, which include Africa, are as follows:

    CDI Terrorism Project


    U.S.-Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations

    Not sure what you conclude is a "local terrorist" and why their operations are so unique (communal tension, radical and anti-West, robbing banks, blowing up churches and shooting government employees as if these are something new to the region). If Boko Haram was in fact the most active terrorist group on the planet, they would certainly have made one of the lists. I beg to differ on who has carried out the greatest number of operations over a 6-month period (assuming this is part of the criteria).

    One of the reasons I am concerned about said predictions and false perceptions is, if they have yet to act like terrorists or even be slightly classified as such, they are not even on the radar screen and all this hyperbole about perceived US intervention is Bravo Sierra. Yes, this may change and when that day comes, let the presumptions fly !

    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    Exactly, I am not ignorant or unaware of that fact. What Nigeria is on the verge of right now is a much wider spread battle between Christians and Muslims than has been seen there in recent history. Many who live there see this coming, in fact it may well already be spreading.
    And you contribute that to exactly what ? I see it as nothing more than the "political powers to be" playing on the same fears and ignorance as they have done for four decades following independence. It is more about the dictatorship than it is about the impoverished.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    If there were a USG link for it, it wouldn't be a rumor would it? The rumors about US involvement have been discussed right here on this forum in the Nigeria area. It is a rumor, sure not much different than rumors of involvement elsewhere. The only difference is Nigeria is Africa's most populous country, there is substantial oil heading for the USA everyday from Nigeria's Delta region. Are our memories too short to remember what oil has to do with US military involvement? But still it is only a rumor, don't get so upset, YET.
    I don’t believe we discussed rumors of US intervention as much as we have discussed the need for the West to stay out of Nigeria’s mess. Going over State and other USG sources does not reveal even the slightest hint of assistance. Stirring the pot is not helping.

    How much oil do you conclude is substantial ?

    Nigeria is dead last on the list of major oil exporters to the USA and even that list only accounts for 69% of total imports. (BTW, Canada is still the number one exporter to the USA.)

    I’d love to have something solid to chomp on regarding oil and US Military involvement. You must have meant to say USG involvement because you certainly know that the US Military does not dictate her destinations and fights. Don’t you ?
    Last edited by Stan; 01-03-2012 at 03:38 PM.
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