Russia, politics and power: internal & external(new title)

[SWJED]

28 May LA Times commentary - Reviving the Evil Empire by Niall Ferguson.

... Seven years ago, the economist Brigitte Granville and I published an article in the Journal of Economic History titled "Weimar on the Volga," in which we argued that the experience of 1990s Russia bore many resemblances to the experience of 1920s Germany...

Yet this is not Cold War II. Unlike in the 1950s and 1960s, Russia is not self-confident but insecure. It is reliant on exports of natural resources, not its own ability to match American technological accomplishments. It is a waning power. The value of the parallel with Weimar Germany is precisely that it captures the dangers of a backlash against such weakness...

[Stan]

I would never believe that Putin would give in, but my military friend in Norway just responded to your post with this (he's shy and relatively silent):

Good evening to you too!

Stalemate!

Russia has offered to extradite Lugovoy in exchange of Berezovsky.

No link. Just got from a family member in the business.....

Should be extremely interesting

One second ago, a tad more

I was told that it was proposed by the Chairman of the Russian Security Comittee Vladimir Vasilyev

[Armchairguy]

"Russia is not self-confident but insecure. It is reliant on exports of natural resources, not its own ability to match American technological accomplishments. It is a waning power."

This seems to be somewhat true, but the bulk of Europe is growing much more dependant on oil from Russia and is more likely to make concessions to Russia to keep the taps open. Putin seems to be drumming up the countries paranoia and nationalism to try to recover its self confidence and in a world where Americas influence is being questioned he's trying to get his country some prestige as an alternative.

If the stories of incursions into Georgian airspace are to be believed, it's possible these are meant as either intimidation and/or to gauge world reaction (none I know of).

I think the planting of a Russian flag on the ocean floor at the north pole is a similar attempt to shore up Russias confidence and another way of testing the worlds reaction (quite a bit more reaction).

Bottom line I think most of it is for domestic consumption, as a way to focus eyeballs outward and to foster nationalism.

[Stan]

Maybe there's still hope that the EU will actually 'bite' this time around with all the howling they continue to do. Russia's recent threats "No more cheap gas for Russia's neighbors" to increase gas prices to the Baltic States by 40% didn't come as much of a surprise here.

In a few days Russia is to commence talks over gas prices with Latvia and Estonia, and in October with Belarus and Ukraine. Lithuanian distributors have already received offers to buy Gazprom gas at $280 per 1,000 cubic meters (the current price is $190). The same price is going to apply to the other Baltic countries. Belarus is most likely to pay $125-150 for Russian gas in 2008 (it is paying $100 now). The price for Ukraine is expected to be raised to $180 from the present $130.

Currently, Russia's closest neighbors, former Soviet republics, are paying about 40-70% of the average European price. And these prices are set by the market, not by the gas monopoly.

But the EC's latest decisions were indeed a welcomed surprise.

The ban will last as long as Russia keeps closed its crude oil/gas production for the EU companies. The current laws of EU prohibit any discrimination of investors for reasons of nationality. What's more, EU cannot pursue the special economic policy in respect of Russia without jeopardizing its own principals of free economy. The draft of new energy laws of the EU will be promulgated September 19.

[Jedburgh]

IHT, 10 Jan 08: Putin Chooses Nationalist Politician as Russia's Ambassador to NATO

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday named a prominent nationalist politician as Russia's ambassador to NATO at a time of severely strained ties between Moscow and the Western alliance.

Dmitry Rogozin, a former parliament member who headed a nationalist party, replaces Gen. Konstantin Totsky.

The appointment of an outspoken nationalist is the latest reflection of Putin's assertive stance toward the West, which he accuses of meddling in Russia's affairs. But it did not appear to signal a shift in Russian policy toward its former Cold War foe.....

[Stan]

...as the country's ambassador to NATO.

The Kremlin's gambit in NATO:

Estonia's Daily Postimees is angry over Rogosin's appointment as Russia's new Ambassador to NATO.

"Let's not forget that it was Rogosin who threatened NATO member Estonia with war last April, in order to protect a Soviet bronze statue. Rogosin says Russia has to resurrect its role as world power.

This does not suggest that the Kremlin wants normal relations with NATO. How will the Estonian envoy look upon a joint NATO conference with Russia ?

Estonia must have a say in the alliance."

[Jedburgh]

ARAG, 15 Jan 08: Russia and the West: A Reassessment

Key Points

- A powerful Russia is once again a fact of life, and Russians know it. They are no longer seeking our approval. They have recovered pride in their own traditions and are determined to advance their own interests. The post-Cold War partnership, founded at a time of Russian disorientation and weakness, is history.

- Russia is not reviving the Cold War, but classical Realpolitik with a strong geo-economic emphasis. Although Russia is not a global threat, it seeks to be both enabler and spoiler. It will exploit our difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan and leverage its influence in Iran to diminish Western influence in the former USSR, where it will use both hard and soft power to resurrect its dominance.

- At a regional level, Russia fears further NATO enlargement and seeks to erode the significance of NATO and EU membership. It has not abandoned ambitions to be a determinant actor in the Balkans and Central Europe. It seeks geo-political partnership with Turkey, a commanding role in the Black Sea region and a de facto veto on matters of European security. Whilst the post-Cold War status quo is not reversible, we should not assume that it cannot be undermined or revised.

- Energy, defined by Russia's official energy strategy as a significant determinant of "geo-political influence", will remain the crucible of difficulty and a source of Western weakness until we formulate an energy strategy that makes Russia respect the realities of interdependence and the rules that go with it.

- The political system, which discourages moderation, and the succession struggle, which is proving to be ugly and prolonged, is making life difficult for those in Russia who see the merit of cooperation.

- But cooperation will be possible over the longer term if the West can shift Russia's focus to its own demographic, social and resource related vulnerabilities. Until we regain the ability to speak with one voice on matters of collective importance, this will not happen. Russia is underestimating its own shortcomings and our potential leverage. We should not.

Complete 47 page paper at the link.