Key Points
- A powerful Russia is once again a fact of life, and Russians know it. They are no longer seeking our approval. They have recovered pride in their own traditions and are determined to advance their own interests. The post-Cold War partnership, founded at a time of Russian disorientation and weakness, is history.
- Russia is not reviving the Cold War, but classical Realpolitik with a strong geo-economic emphasis. Although Russia is not a global threat, it seeks to be both enabler and spoiler. It will exploit our difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan and leverage its influence in Iran to diminish Western influence in the former USSR, where it will use both hard and soft power to resurrect its dominance.
- At a regional level, Russia fears further NATO enlargement and seeks to erode the significance of NATO and EU membership. It has not abandoned ambitions to be a determinant actor in the Balkans and Central Europe. It seeks geo-political partnership with Turkey, a commanding role in the Black Sea region and a de facto veto on matters of European security. Whilst the post-Cold War status quo is not reversible, we should not assume that it cannot be undermined or revised.
- Energy, defined by Russia's official energy strategy as a significant determinant of "geo-political influence", will remain the crucible of difficulty and a source of Western weakness until we formulate an energy strategy that makes Russia respect the realities of interdependence and the rules that go with it.
- The political system, which discourages moderation, and
the succession struggle, which is proving to be ugly and prolonged, is making life difficult for those in Russia who see the merit of cooperation.
- But cooperation will be possible over the longer term if the West can shift Russia's focus to its own demographic, social and resource related vulnerabilities. Until we regain the ability to speak with one voice on matters of collective importance, this will not happen. Russia is underestimating its own shortcomings and our potential leverage. We should not.
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