- Russia’s political regime is unsustainable. It has no capacity to reform, and faces growing economic woes, crumbling infrastructure, and warring elites.
- After widespread protests and ebbing of support, the government began in 2014 to base its legitimacy on winning wars. Putin centralised all power in the presidency, suppressing dissent and weakening institutions in the process.
- Now, the regime needs to keep delivering military victories or face a loss of support. Excessive centralisation makes the system unstable and ine cient, focused on survival rather than strategy. As sanctions bite and funds run short, the elites are growing impatient, and the chance of con ict is rising in regions such as the Caucasus.
- There are two ways out for the Russian regime: improve its nances by reconciling with the West, or regain legitimacy by replacing the president. Even these will only buy it time, and may not prevent a total collapse.
- There is no clear heir to Putin, and collapse could be followed by the redistribution of power to various government bodies, companies, and regions, including Chechnya.
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