US Internal Security Redux

[Jack_Gander]

In 2008, former KGB intelligence analyst Igor Panarin predicted the United States would collapse in 2010. As a 30 year veteran of the Russian intelligence service, he based his conclusions on three primary factors: mass migration, economic decline and moral degradation. Conducting this type of strategic analysis is not unique to the KGB and it is routinely performed by the US Intelligence Community on foreign governments. Thankfully that prediction has come and gone and fortunately the United States is still in existence.

Background link to Igor Panarin, note he is no trace on Amazon.com for his own books:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Panarin

Based on recent events around the world and within the United States, it may be the opportune time to revisit Pararin’s analysis and examine what the potential is for his predictions to actually come to fruition. There is no greater threat to US national security than the collapse of the constitutional form of government or some form of violent, revolutionary movement within the United States. As Dr. Jeffery Sachs of Columbia University noted:

The U.S. is even more extreme [than London]. We have a more broken and serious underclass right now -we have a pressure cooker in the United States. It hasn't exploded that way, but it is a real pressure cooker.

Quote appears within a transcript:http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1.../fzgps.01.html

This is certainly not a pleasant topic to discuss but the impacts would be far more devastating than an early withdrawal from Afghanistan or a WMD attack on a major city.

As Cynthia Grabo points out in, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, a classic work for intelligence analysts involved in strategic analysis, the first step in conducting strategic analysis of this sort is to develop an indicator list of key factors that would signal the actions an adversary. For this problem there is not a clearly defined adversary so we must build a new conceptual framework. Current counterinsurgency doctrine may provide a useful starting point. The US environment should be examined on three broad factors: economic, governance and internal security. Much has been written recently about the first two factors so I will cover them briefly and provide more detail on the third factor.

Link:http://www.amazon.com/Anticipating-S...3808871&sr=1-1

Economic
The downgrade of US credit by Standard and Poor’s is most likely just the tip of the iceberg. As NY Times economist Paul Krugman recently pointed out, the economy was not as good as reported over the past two years and underemployment is a significant concern. He notes:

Not only are vast numbers of Americans unemployed or underemployed, for the first time since the Great Depression many American workers are facing the prospect of very-long-term — maybe permanent — unemployment.

Appears within an article:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/op...g-worries.html

Large groups of underutilized males lend themselves to flash points of nefarious activity. This factor, along with an unsustainable national debt, stagnant GDP and increased international competition, paint a grim economic picture for the US in the years ahead.

Governance
The rationale for the S&P downgrade was actually not based on the future of the US economy; it was more of a statement on the poor state of our governance. Specifically S&P noted:

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.

Congress is often referred to as the “broken branch” and the current debate is whether this session of Congress is the most broken in our nation’s history. Public opinion polls seem to bear this fact out. Political infighting and a focus on reelection efforts seem to trump US national interests. Unfortunately under our two party system and without term limits, few options for realistic governance reform exists.

Internal Security
Emerging concepts of modern warfare: Unconventional Warfare, Hybrid Warfare, and 4GW each include criminal activity as a component of the theory. Does the hubris of the national security community assume these types of warfare cannot or will not be practiced on US soil? Perhaps even conducted by US citizens?

There are several functional areas that I would further develop into to an indicator list intended to warn national leadership of unfavorable conditions regarding US Internal Security:
• Civil Disturbances
• Illegal Immigration
• Transnational Organized Crime
• Radicalization
• US Criminal Justice System

Each of these issues poses a national security concern, yet because of their political sensitivities, they are often ignored by the national security community. Many feel because the US is a democracy these issues will simply resolve themselves through the democratic process. However I have seen no significant effort or political will to address these issues over the past several decades and each appears to get worse with time.

I pose the following questions to members of the council:
• Are these domestic issues national security concerns? (use whatever definition of national security you prefer)
• Will these issues eventually be resolved through the democratic process?
• If the economy continues on its current path, will social unrest/civil disturbance increase? Will they turn more violent?
• Could foreign influence make these domestic issue worse?
• What role does citizenship (not the legal process of becoming a citizen) play in National Security?
• Should the US reshape its national security investment strategy to better address these issues?

Others interested in this field of study should add their questions to the list.