An interresting article on the Al Shebaab finance and the impact of Westgate attack on Shebaab incomes.
http://www.courant.com/news/nation-w...,7423755.story
Shabaab finances face squeeze after Kenya attack
Al Shabaab's economic strength is vital to its operations because it can pay its thousands of fighters a monthly salary normally varying between $100 to $300 a month.
That, more than its declared aim of imposing a strict version of Sharia or Islamic law, is the main incentive to join up, Somali researchers say.
Ironically, al Shabaab's income may have benefited from an upturn in the Somali economy that followed the partial restoration of order in Mogadishu over the past two years and a growth in investment amid hopes of an end to years of war.
In the wake of the four-day attack by al Shabaab militants on a Nairobi shopping mall in which at least 72 people were killed, Western counter-terrorism agencies are expected to subject the group's sources of financial support to renewed scrutiny, Somali experts say.
The success of such efforts will depend to a large extent on the choices made by Somalis, in particular the powerful Somali business community in east Africa.
According to Ken Menkhaus, a leading U.S. scholar of al Shabaab, the most formidable weapon against al Shabaab may be the Somalia expatriate business community in Kenya, which has emerged as a force in property and trade in the past 20 years.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09...0-students-in/
KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.Islamist terrorists kill dozens of students in attack on Nigerian college
Islamic terrorists dressed in Nigerian military uniforms assaulted a college inside the country Sunday, gunning down dozens of students as they slept in their dorms and shot those trying to flee, witnesses say.
"They started gathering students into groups outside, then they opened fire and killed one group and then moved onto the next group and killed them. It was so terrible," on surviving student, who would only give his first name of Idris, told Reuters.
Bill, they apparently have 9 perps in custody. Given that Kenya does not have the same sensitivities over the use of ... shall we say ... coercion, they will soon all be singing like little birdies. All will be revealed.Originally Posted by Bill Moore
That said, yes, you are correct it then depends on what is done with the intel.
Bill, now there you go again,
insulting all the real animals I love.
The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.
In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.
Regards
Mike
I used to think our strategists would wake up to simple truths and realize how deeply flawed our COIN doctrine really is. This is relevant because we have largely chosen to use a COIN approach to counter terrorism globalism globally by projecting the idea that if you just have good governance all of this will go away. I'm convinced now that our ill conceived views of how the world works hasn't and won't change just because those views are disproven when they bump up against reality. Nations that have a clearer view of reality, a reality not shaded by our idealism, will have to take the lead in the fight against terrorists. They shouldn't allow us to hold them back.insulting all the real animals I love.
The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.
In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.
Regards
Mike
The only way to win over these ass clowns is to convert to their religion and embrace "their" version of sharia law. Of course that won't be enough, it never is. Where they achieve power status what follows will be the oppression of women, and then certain men won't be Muslim enough for the radicals so they'll have to be killed, and so on and so on.
I think you're preaching to the choir
While I still adhere generally to the concept of neutralization (not as a euphemism, but meaning to kill, detain indefinitely or convert), the option of conversion has never seemed to me - in and from the Vietnam era to the present - of much value in dealing with persons of strong ideologies (political or religious). Besides the "converts" are usually low-hanging fruit (lower rankers); and you can't really trust them.
The option of indefinite detention has the potential positive value of data gathering - we can discuss what techniques ought to be used ad infinitum. However, as the Gitmo cases show, indefinite detention has become a limited US option; and, perhaps, that is as it should be. I'm OK with that so long as the kill option is open.
The kill option has three parts:
1. The person killed did, or was involved in the doing of (including being an immediate or imminent threat, #3 below), a bad thing (so, the killing is "retribution").
2. The reasons for killing that person are articulated and absolutely no apology is made for the killing (our articulation is "reprobation").
3. By killing that person, we prevent future bad acts by that person; but we also have to kill those persons who are an immediate or imminent threat to do, or who are involved in the planning of doing, bad acts ("specific deterrence").
I'm not in favor of the US being the World's go to sniper; and personally favor non-violent action in all cases where it's likely to work. But, there are man-eating humans roaming the World; and after initial contact, the US should do onto them as they do unto the US.
NB: The theory of general deterrence (influencing a number of others not to do something by punishing a guilty person) is really an attempt at indirect conversion. Thus, I believe in general deterrence even less than direct attemps at conversiom. I'm also a hard sell on rehabilitation programs.
In reality, I'm a lousy singer - except when very drunk, or in the shower.I also confess to having used the metaphor "man-eating tiger" more than once at SWC and elsewhere.
Regards
Mike
PS: After posting this, I read Kilcullen's Westgate mall attacks: urban areas are the battleground of the 21st century - As the terror attack in Nairobi this week brutally illustrates, cities will be the war zones of the future (Guardian, 27 Sep 2013). I've been preaching about littorals for years; the Marine Corps has been preaching about littorals since well before I was born; and if anyone hasn't seen the population move to slum-cities (on or a vertical envelopment's distance from a coast), that person is blind.
Unless it is very implicit, Kilcullen does not offer an ideology to deal with the "urban problem":
Whether you like it or not, "talion" (retribution, reprobation, specific deterrence) is an ideology. But in the US: here, yesterday; gone, today.Understanding the new, highly connected nature of urban environments like Mumbai or Nairobi is an important first step in preparing to deal with this problem. Big data can sometimes help. Analysts can now track millions upon millions of data points (traffic patterns, say, or cellphone usage, or pedestrian movement, or prices in markets, or internet hits, or bank transactions, or numbers and types of cars in parking lots) to understand, through remote observation, how a city works. But how do we do that in enormous megaslums that are constantly growing and morphing and which don't have the street names and building addresses that allow geo-data to mean something?
Many of today's coastal cities, especially those in the developing world, are growing at breakneck speed. In a conflict, people's uncertainty arises from armed groups targeting the population; in a city that's growing exponentially – constantly outgrowing itself – the same terrifying lack of predictability can arise simply from the pace of change. Thus a megacity under stress can offer opportunities for conflict entrepreneurs (gang leaders, crime bosses or militant extremists) to control populations, provided they create a predictable rule set that makes people feel safe in the face of instability. This occurs because of the predictability inherent in the rules, whether people like the group or not, and regardless of the content of those rules. You don't have to like the cops, or agree with the speed limit, for the road rules to make you feel safe. Eventually, provided the group builds consistency and order, through a spectrum of persuasive, administrative and coercive measures, it may gain the loyalty and support of the local population.
...
As we dust ourselves off after a decade of war, community resilience, public safety and economic opportunity in crowded urban areas may turn out to matter more than counterterrorism or counterinsurgency. Designers and urbanists speak of participative development and human-centred design as key elements of a new approach to city development. Figuring how to co-design solutions in partnership with a local community, when the community is under threat and someone is shooting at you, may be the hardest challenge of all.
Unlike us, the "conflict entrepreneurs" are not shy about a talion ideology. They apply its principles and its moderators within their group (e.g., Taliban in Astan), but are at war with the outside groups that oppose their interests.
The only recipe Kilcullen offers in the article is "...community resilience, public safety and economic opportunity ..." Please, spare me more state building; excuse, city buliding.
I've cited "Eye for an Eye" in another thread; but here's the ideology that used to be - Hitesman, Setting the Stage for Justice in the Revenge Genre Film (2005) (a good short treatment).
Last edited by jmm99; 09-30-2013 at 03:17 AM.
The Nigerian Army is as brutal as they come, but we are dealing with something that might be beyond the capacity of the Nigerian Army (120,000 soldiers also managing a Niger Delta insurgency & a Middle Belt crisis).
The Sahel had great inland cities & it's economy was based on transactions between the interior & the Maghreb. Unfortunately, European trade with the coasts broke those links & even though the physical routes for trade are intact, very little trade occurs in that region.
That region is not economically productive & will never be, but it is still linked to the Maghreb & the interior. So we are dealing with a transnational problem that might only get worse with time.
It is impossible to police Nigeria's Northern borders - so these animals will have free movement through even weaker states like Niger, Chad & Cameroun - which they could destabilize large parts of in future.
I don't know how this thing will end, but it won't end soon. It will end only after all parties are exhausted.
Two points and some questions.
First, the North American continent is getting very close to energy, fossil fuel, self sufficiency, even to the point we get to be exporters again, especially in natural gas. How might that affect our relations with Saudi Arabia?
Second, it seems the takfiri killers are embarking upon a simple religious war, kill the Christians. This is being seen in quite a few countries. How might this play out? Are they trying to provoke a reaction directed against all Muslims? That would make sense since that would give them the upper hand in the on-going struggle for leadership in the Muslim world.
Another point I just thought of. M-A is right about the Pak Army/ISI. They are the main devil. When/if they win in Afghanistan, they will be hugely encouraged as will all the takfiri killers worldwide. They will want to go on to bigger and better things. Ultimately theynwill have to be taken care of. How?
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Sub-Saharan Africa is a bit different from the Middle East - it has a lot more Christians than Muslims & Christians tend to be located more in the wealthier, coastal cities.
If they want to provoke a reaction from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa - eventually they'll get it, but they will regret it.
From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
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