ICG, 21 Feb 08: Kenya in Crisis
.....The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy. The protracted political crisis has deep roots and could easily lead to renewed extreme violence. More is at stake than the collapse of Kenya itself. Kenya is the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan, a haven for refugees from throughout the region, a regional entrepot, and a key anchor for long-term stabilisation of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. Paralysis of its infrastructure would deprive those countries of access to basic commodities, reduce trade opportunities, hamper foreign investment and see economic growth crippled. The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region. The alternative – a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict – would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond.