Kenya (catch all)

[Stan]

Eric,
That's the way I understood the article, but it seems that attempts to pressure the African government by "starving out the population" would result in even further violent conditions -- as the pres gnaws on his tenderloin with sauce béarnaise watching televised reports of starving people

Regarding greed and corruption, I was thinking like a Zairian for a second: With the arrival of goods at the airport. There's obviously 'customs duties' and damaged crates and otherwise (ahem) bureaucratic procedures to follow. Obviously, Kenya's elite are not all that concerned about transparency, and could easily blame missing donations on the current situation - Basically what Zaire did way back when.

Regards, Stan

PS. I stopped watchin' Batman when they replace the Joker, Jack Nicholson

[Tom Odom]

Kenya and Kofi Annan
It is disheartening to hear that formal talks between Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga were suspended on Thursday following the violent death of opposition lawmaker David Too. The talks began Wednesday and were aimed at reconciliation following tumultuous elections in December. From the outset, however, we have been skeptical of the mediation process, as it falls under the tutelage of Kofi Annan, a former secretary-general of the United Nations whose disastrous leadership as head of United Nations peacekeeping operations (where he failed to take any action to prevent the 1994 Rwandan genocide) gives reason for pause.

Mr. Annan has said he believes the immediate political crisis could be solved "within a week," but this is now highly unlikely, considering that neither side offered significant compromises before talks began. Moreover, Mr. Too's death follows Tuesday's fatal shooting of Mugabe Were, another member of parliament belonging to Mr. Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Since the results of the Dec. 27 election were announced, supporters of ODM have formed roving bands that are attacking members of the Kikuyu, Mr. Kibaki's ethnic group. Nearly 900 people have been killed and more than 250,000 have been displaced following a vote that international observers said lacked transparency. On Dec. 30, Mr. Kibaki was sworn into his second term less than an hour after the surprising election results were made public. Early tallies had suggested Mr. Odinga would win, but after a series of apparent voting irregularities, Mr. Kibaki won by 200,000 votes.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected in Nairobi today to assist the Panel of Eminent African Persons under Mr. Annan. Ghana President John Kufuor, chairman of the African Union, failed to broker a peace agreement in January[/QUOTE]

What is going on in Kenya offers a larger lesson for those who tribalism as a substitute for states rights in a setting like Iraq. Kenya's splits are more complex but are nonetheless purely ethnic versus the tribal, ethnic, and religious schisms we deal with in Iraq.

Ethnic/political driven corruption destroyed the Congo under Mobutu, who with western backing was able to keep a lid on things until the end of the Cold War when that western backing fragmented. Kenya has over the past 4 decades followed a similar but less apparent glide path with political corruption fueled by ethnic divisions. Kenya's geostrategic role has made it an important partner to the US and the West in general; like the Congo/Zaire that relationship has helped offset these problems but they have been there since Kenyatta's days.

Final thought is you have to be very careful to not dismiss such conflicts as just an another ethnic blood bath in Africa because in such a tribally-based society, ethnicity is the basis for politics. Cultural, ethnic, and racial differences are often political in their effect simply because they define who has power and who does not. Such differences cannot be erased by decree but they can be mitigated over time through communication and education. However when large scale eruptions such as this one occur, the effects are long lasting, self-sustaining, and unfortunately reinforcing.

Best

Tom

[Tom Odom]

At the AU Summit

Kenya vows tougher crackdown

Rwandan President Paul Kagame told the Reuters news agency that Kenya's Army might have to take over before things get worse. "I know that it is not fashionable and right for the armies to get involved in such a political situation," he said. "But in situations where institutions have lost control, I wouldn't mind such a solution."

The key question is of course can the Army if put in such a role maintain its balance and not fragment. I am not up on the Kenyan military enough to make that call.

Tom

[Rex Brynen]

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected in Nairobi today to assist the Panel of Eminent African Persons under Mr. Annan. Ghana President John Kufuor, chairman of the African Union, failed to broker a peace agreement in January

I was just thinking about all this when Tom posted (and this is a short post of my own, since I need to run to teach class).

It remains to be seen whether Ki-moon, Annan, and the AU can move the parties to a political agreement that would deescalate the current situation, but I think this is a clear case where the oft-maligned UN and AU have potential for conflict prevention (or, more accurately, conflict deescalation) that others don't.

The rest of the international community has been publicly supportive, but one hopes that local embassies and HQS can coordinate an effective common front to support the primary mediators. This was done well in support of the peace process in Mozambique in 1992-94, and done poorly--and with tragic consequences--in Angola in 1992 and Rwanda prior to the genocide.

Also, there is some discussion of the Kenya crisis and AFRICOM on Abu Muqawama.

[tequila]

From what little I know about the Kenyan military, it is dominated by Kalenjin, Maasai, and other "minority" officers, a holdover from the Moi regime --- that is, those who are primarily in opposition to the Kibaki government. There were occasional rumors during Kibaki's tenure that Kalenjin officers would launch a coup against Kibaki, but this never occurred and thusfar the Army has remained firmly on the side of the government.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 21 Feb 08: Kenya in Crisis

.....The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy. The protracted political crisis has deep roots and could easily lead to renewed extreme violence. More is at stake than the collapse of Kenya itself. Kenya is the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan, a haven for refugees from throughout the region, a regional entrepot, and a key anchor for long-term stabilisation of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. Paralysis of its infrastructure would deprive those countries of access to basic commodities, reduce trade opportunities, hamper foreign investment and see economic growth crippled. The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region. The alternative – a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict – would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond.

[Jedburgh]

GIGA, Feb 08:

Ethnic Coalitions of Convenience and Commitment: Political Parties and Party Systems in Kenya

This paper analyzes the role of ethnicity in shaping the character of Kenya’s political parties and its party system since 1992. Drawing on a constructivist conception of ethnicity, it uses a framework of comparison derived from Donald Horowitz and distinguishes between three party types: the mono-ethnic party, the multi-ethnic alliance type and the multi-ethnic integrative type. It shows that although Kenyan parties have increasingly incorporated diverse communities, they have consistently failed to bridge the country’s dominant ethnic cleavages. Consequently, all of Kenya’s significant parties represent ethnic coalitions of convenience and commitment and, thus, ethnic parties. The paper further states that the country’s post-2007 political environment is a by-product of the omnipresence of this party type.

Complete 28 page paper at the link.

[Tom Odom]

this is a new HRW report just out that says Kenyan officials olotted much of the post-election violence

Report: Kenyan officials plotted attacks that killed hundreds

NAIROBI, Kenya — A leading human rights group said Monday that Kenyan political and business leaders plotted much of the country's recent ethnic violence, and it urged the new coalition government to bring the organizers to justice.

New York-based Human Rights Watch found evidence that hundreds of people were killed in planned ethnic attacks following the disputed presidential election in December. In many cases, the group said, the attacks were planned and financed by prominent civic leaders, although the group didn't directly implicate any top national politicians.

The full report can be downloaded here

From the report's summary:

Summary

The scale and speed of the violence that engulfed Kenya following the controversial presidential election of December 27, 2007 shocked both Kenyans and the world at large. Two months of bloodshed left over 1,000 dead and up to 500,000 internally displaced persons in a country viewed as a bastion of economic and political stability in a volatile region.

The ethnic divisions laid bare in the aftermath of the elections have roots that run much deeper than the presidential poll. No Kenyan government has yet made a good-faith effort to address long simmering grievances over land that have persisted since independence. High-ranking politicians who have been consistently implicated in organizing political violence since the 1990s have never been brought to book and continue to operate with impunity. Widespread failures of governance are at the core of the explosive anger exposed in the wake of the election fraud.