Kenya (catch all)

[tequila]

From what little I know about the Kenyan military, it is dominated by Kalenjin, Maasai, and other "minority" officers, a holdover from the Moi regime --- that is, those who are primarily in opposition to the Kibaki government. There were occasional rumors during Kibaki's tenure that Kalenjin officers would launch a coup against Kibaki, but this never occurred and thusfar the Army has remained firmly on the side of the government.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 21 Feb 08: Kenya in Crisis

.....The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy. The protracted political crisis has deep roots and could easily lead to renewed extreme violence. More is at stake than the collapse of Kenya itself. Kenya is the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan, a haven for refugees from throughout the region, a regional entrepot, and a key anchor for long-term stabilisation of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. Paralysis of its infrastructure would deprive those countries of access to basic commodities, reduce trade opportunities, hamper foreign investment and see economic growth crippled. The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region. The alternative – a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict – would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond.

[Jedburgh]

GIGA, Feb 08:

Ethnic Coalitions of Convenience and Commitment: Political Parties and Party Systems in Kenya

This paper analyzes the role of ethnicity in shaping the character of Kenya’s political parties and its party system since 1992. Drawing on a constructivist conception of ethnicity, it uses a framework of comparison derived from Donald Horowitz and distinguishes between three party types: the mono-ethnic party, the multi-ethnic alliance type and the multi-ethnic integrative type. It shows that although Kenyan parties have increasingly incorporated diverse communities, they have consistently failed to bridge the country’s dominant ethnic cleavages. Consequently, all of Kenya’s significant parties represent ethnic coalitions of convenience and commitment and, thus, ethnic parties. The paper further states that the country’s post-2007 political environment is a by-product of the omnipresence of this party type.

Complete 28 page paper at the link.

[Tom Odom]

this is a new HRW report just out that says Kenyan officials olotted much of the post-election violence

Report: Kenyan officials plotted attacks that killed hundreds

NAIROBI, Kenya — A leading human rights group said Monday that Kenyan political and business leaders plotted much of the country's recent ethnic violence, and it urged the new coalition government to bring the organizers to justice.

New York-based Human Rights Watch found evidence that hundreds of people were killed in planned ethnic attacks following the disputed presidential election in December. In many cases, the group said, the attacks were planned and financed by prominent civic leaders, although the group didn't directly implicate any top national politicians.

The full report can be downloaded here

From the report's summary:

Summary

The scale and speed of the violence that engulfed Kenya following the controversial presidential election of December 27, 2007 shocked both Kenyans and the world at large. Two months of bloodshed left over 1,000 dead and up to 500,000 internally displaced persons in a country viewed as a bastion of economic and political stability in a volatile region.

The ethnic divisions laid bare in the aftermath of the elections have roots that run much deeper than the presidential poll. No Kenyan government has yet made a good-faith effort to address long simmering grievances over land that have persisted since independence. High-ranking politicians who have been consistently implicated in organizing political violence since the 1990s have never been brought to book and continue to operate with impunity. Widespread failures of governance are at the core of the explosive anger exposed in the wake of the election fraud.