Jedburgh,
Thanks for the explanation. Can you please also edit my posts to make me sound a bit more intelligent? I'd like to be a bit more Kissingeresque, but I'm afraid I'm a bit more like Muskie.
In an attempt to get the thread back on topic, I would like to ask all of you what you do if you could design a project or intervention to address the conflict in Kenya. Where would you start? Reconciliation? Root causes of poverty? Political reform?
The Rot in Kenya's Politics
There's an interesting short publication by Anne Applebaum at the American Enterprise Institute regarding Kenya's problem and a potential fix. I don't agree with 'mere' bad politics being the sole problem while ignoring the myriad of tribal conflicts in the region over far less, and having watched aid programs with 'strings attached' makes me wonder what that would accomplish, if anything.Originally Posted by Beelzebubalicious
What was most striking to me about the violence in Kenya in recent weeks was not how much the country resembles Rwanda but, rather, how much it resembles, say, Ukraine in 2004 or South Korea in the 1980s. Perhaps the real story here is not, as one headline had it, about "The Demons That Still Haunt Africa" but about how Africa is no different from anywhere else.
As any student of revolution knows, popular uprisings generally take place not in the poorest countries but in those that have recently grown richer.
Thus there is nothing mysterious about the anger or the unrest, nothing that requires more Live Aid concerts or global outpourings of emotion, nothing especially "African" about Kenya's problems at all. Kenya needs a cleaner, more democratic, more rule-abiding government; it needs to eliminate the licenses and regulations that create opportunities for bribery; it needs to apply the law equally to all citizens.
The West can help Kenya change these things by encouraging these values through the nature of the aid it gives and the strings attached to that aid.
Ultimately, though, Kenya's political elite will have to decide what kind of country they want their children to live in. Yes, there are cultural factors, and, yes, Kenya is unique, but in the end politics, not culture, lies at the heart of the country's current problems.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Stan,
Interesting connection between Kenya and Ukraine in 2004. The author writes "how Africa is no different than anywhere else". I understand her point, that on some surface levels, there are similarities (economic growth, corrupt government, election fraud, popular uprising). However, the Ukrainian revolution didn't break out into widespread violence. No question, the povery level and desperation is not comparable. And culturally and historically, there aren't too many similarities that I can point to.
Other than saying that people of both countries are frustrated w/corrupt and inefficient governments (politicians), there isn't a lot else that's very similar.
What's your perspective, having spent significant chunks of time in both Eastern Europe/NIS and Africa?
Eric,
I’ll start by saying I like Anne’s “thinking out of the box” style and appreciate she’s been around Eastern Europe a long time as an investigative journalist. I don’t agree with her current train of thought, but decided to post it because of your unique position with USAID and physical location, and my background in Sub-Sahara.
I agree, the similarities are shallow; social and political upheaval in Africa is little more than a daily occurrence. Estonia’s revolution was in fact a ‘singing revolution’ with no violence or political agenda whatsoever. Much like The Ukraine, Estonians just wanted the Soviets out and this has little to do with ‘on the edge of your seat’ tribal conflict and/or differences.
There’s reference made to the violent uprising being seemingly preplanned because it “seemed as spontaneous as it was shocking, with machete-wielding mobs hacking people to death and burning women and children alive in a country that was celebrated as one of Africa’s most stable.” I think had the author been in Goma in 1994 for 40 days, she’d look at the 560 deaths as a mere drop in the bucket and would also better appreciate just how fast tribal related violence ‘fires up’.
I was interested in your view regarding this ‘carrot’ with strings attached approach. It has never worked with any great success when greed and corruption come into play. Why would it then work so much better in Kenya ?
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Stan,
The article she refers to is about civil society organizations calling for donors to withhold aid until Kenya makes certain reforms. That's more like stick and carrot. Interestingly, the Catholic church opposed this, saying that reconciliation and healing will take time and the donors shouldn't given conditions to the government.
The problem with withholding aid is that aid becomes not a carrot (strings or not), but a weapon. for that, there are economic sanctions and other measures. Reminds me of the situation in Palestinian Territories after Hamas won the election. It was a legitimate election by the reports I read. Holding back aid might have hurt Hamas, but it probably hurt the Palestinian people more.
Anyway, getting back to the carrot with strings. The carrot always has strings. You never get something for nothing, eh. I think aid agencies would like the carrot to be tied to a string which is tied to a stick which is leading the donkey forward. You give aid and assistance with the understanding that the government will participate, that it will make certain changes, that it will move forward.
As for greed and corruption, donor money is hard to get. There are way too many easier ways to make money. But, I think many governments have become quite adept at speaking the speak and attracting donor money, then foot-dragging, confusing things, using rhetoric in place of action, etc. Or use donor money to fund government services or programs and then divert that money to other purposes (Ahem, Ethiopia). Lastly, i would also say donors are often hesitant to face corruption head on, so you see a lot of anti-corruption projects focused on civil society monitoring and media (Ahem, Millenium Challenge Corporation, or MCC).
Okay, I've probably said way too much....and now everybody knows my secret identity (batman is bruce wayne...or perhaps more appropriately, Robin is...well, Robin, I guess. Poor kid.)
Eric
Eric,
That's the way I understood the article, but it seems that attempts to pressure the African government by "starving out the population" would result in even further violent conditions -- as the pres gnaws on his tenderloin with sauce béarnaise watching televised reports of starving people
Regarding greed and corruption, I was thinking like a Zairian for a second: With the arrival of goods at the airport. There's obviously 'customs duties' and damaged crates and otherwise (ahem) bureaucratic procedures to follow. Obviously, Kenya's elite are not all that concerned about transparency, and could easily blame missing donations on the current situation - Basically what Zaire did way back when.
Regards, Stan
PS. I stopped watchin' Batman when they replace the Joker, Jack Nicholson
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Why Tribal Will Never Be Federal
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected in Nairobi today to assist the Panel of Eminent African Persons under Mr. Annan. Ghana President John Kufuor, chairman of the African Union, failed to broker a peace agreement in January[/QUOTE]Kenya and Kofi Annan
It is disheartening to hear that formal talks between Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga were suspended on Thursday following the violent death of opposition lawmaker David Too. The talks began Wednesday and were aimed at reconciliation following tumultuous elections in December. From the outset, however, we have been skeptical of the mediation process, as it falls under the tutelage of Kofi Annan, a former secretary-general of the United Nations whose disastrous leadership as head of United Nations peacekeeping operations (where he failed to take any action to prevent the 1994 Rwandan genocide) gives reason for pause.
Mr. Annan has said he believes the immediate political crisis could be solved "within a week," but this is now highly unlikely, considering that neither side offered significant compromises before talks began. Moreover, Mr. Too's death follows Tuesday's fatal shooting of Mugabe Were, another member of parliament belonging to Mr. Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Since the results of the Dec. 27 election were announced, supporters of ODM have formed roving bands that are attacking members of the Kikuyu, Mr. Kibaki's ethnic group. Nearly 900 people have been killed and more than 250,000 have been displaced following a vote that international observers said lacked transparency. On Dec. 30, Mr. Kibaki was sworn into his second term less than an hour after the surprising election results were made public. Early tallies had suggested Mr. Odinga would win, but after a series of apparent voting irregularities, Mr. Kibaki won by 200,000 votes.
What is going on in Kenya offers a larger lesson for those who tribalism as a substitute for states rights in a setting like Iraq. Kenya's splits are more complex but are nonetheless purely ethnic versus the tribal, ethnic, and religious schisms we deal with in Iraq.
Ethnic/political driven corruption destroyed the Congo under Mobutu, who with western backing was able to keep a lid on things until the end of the Cold War when that western backing fragmented. Kenya has over the past 4 decades followed a similar but less apparent glide path with political corruption fueled by ethnic divisions. Kenya's geostrategic role has made it an important partner to the US and the West in general; like the Congo/Zaire that relationship has helped offset these problems but they have been there since Kenyatta's days.
Final thought is you have to be very careful to not dismiss such conflicts as just an another ethnic blood bath in Africa because in such a tribally-based society, ethnicity is the basis for politics. Cultural, ethnic, and racial differences are often political in their effect simply because they define who has power and who does not. Such differences cannot be erased by decree but they can be mitigated over time through communication and education. However when large scale eruptions such as this one occur, the effects are long lasting, self-sustaining, and unfortunately reinforcing.
Best
Tom
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