Kenya and Kofi Annan
It is disheartening to hear that formal talks between Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga were suspended on Thursday following the violent death of opposition lawmaker David Too. The talks began Wednesday and were aimed at reconciliation following tumultuous elections in December. From the outset, however, we have been skeptical of the mediation process, as it falls under the tutelage of Kofi Annan, a former secretary-general of the United Nations whose disastrous leadership as head of United Nations peacekeeping operations (where he failed to take any action to prevent the 1994 Rwandan genocide) gives reason for pause.

Mr. Annan has said he believes the immediate political crisis could be solved "within a week," but this is now highly unlikely, considering that neither side offered significant compromises before talks began. Moreover, Mr. Too's death follows Tuesday's fatal shooting of Mugabe Were, another member of parliament belonging to Mr. Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Since the results of the Dec. 27 election were announced, supporters of ODM have formed roving bands that are attacking members of the Kikuyu, Mr. Kibaki's ethnic group. Nearly 900 people have been killed and more than 250,000 have been displaced following a vote that international observers said lacked transparency. On Dec. 30, Mr. Kibaki was sworn into his second term less than an hour after the surprising election results were made public. Early tallies had suggested Mr. Odinga would win, but after a series of apparent voting irregularities, Mr. Kibaki won by 200,000 votes.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected in Nairobi today to assist the Panel of Eminent African Persons under Mr. Annan. Ghana President John Kufuor, chairman of the African Union, failed to broker a peace agreement in January[/QUOTE]

What is going on in Kenya offers a larger lesson for those who tribalism as a substitute for states rights in a setting like Iraq. Kenya's splits are more complex but are nonetheless purely ethnic versus the tribal, ethnic, and religious schisms we deal with in Iraq.

Ethnic/political driven corruption destroyed the Congo under Mobutu, who with western backing was able to keep a lid on things until the end of the Cold War when that western backing fragmented. Kenya has over the past 4 decades followed a similar but less apparent glide path with political corruption fueled by ethnic divisions. Kenya's geostrategic role has made it an important partner to the US and the West in general; like the Congo/Zaire that relationship has helped offset these problems but they have been there since Kenyatta's days.

Final thought is you have to be very careful to not dismiss such conflicts as just an another ethnic blood bath in Africa because in such a tribally-based society, ethnicity is the basis for politics. Cultural, ethnic, and racial differences are often political in their effect simply because they define who has power and who does not. Such differences cannot be erased by decree but they can be mitigated over time through communication and education. However when large scale eruptions such as this one occur, the effects are long lasting, self-sustaining, and unfortunately reinforcing.

Best

Tom