Kenya (catch all)

[Entropy]

I think it's certainly a Mumbai-style attack. Monitoring the various twitter feeds, it's apparent that the attackers are being fed live intel and are coordinating efforts with and AS headquarters.

[davidbfpo]

The list of the alleged kidnappers reported on Twitter, entitled PrayingForWestgate and by ‏@shambuguREAL via @HSM_PRESS2; missing are 5 & 7 and the HSM account has been suspended:

10. abdirizak mouled 24 y.o from ontario canada
9. sayid nuh 25 y.o from kismayu somalia.
8. abdifatah osman keenadiid. 24 y.o from minneapolis.
6. gen mustafe noorudiin. 27 y.o from kansas city. MO.
4. qasim said mussa 22 y.o garissa KE.
3. ahmed nasir shirdoon 24 y.o from london UK.
2. zaki jama caraale 20 y.o from hargeisa somalia.
1. ismael guled 23 y.o from helsinki finland.

Another journalist refers to:

Among the attackers Jihadists from Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Kansas, Illinois, London, Helsinki, Damascus

Elsewhere UK C4 News has an interview with Al-Shabaab:http://www.channel4.com/news/al-shab...ng-mall-attack

[davidbfpo]

An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:

The Westgate attack is the latest sign of the group’s weakness. It was a desperate, high-risk gamble by Shabaab to reverse its prospects. If the deadly attack succeeds in prompting vigilante violence by Kenyan citizens or heavy-handed government reactions against Somali residents, Shabaab stands a chance of recasting itself as the vanguard militia protecting Somalis against external enemies. It desperately needs to reframe the conflict in Somalia as Somalis versus the foreigners, not as Somalis who seek peace and a return to normalcy versus a toxic jihadi movement.

Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/20...n-desperation/

Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.

[Bill Moore]

An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:

Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/20...n-desperation/

Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.

Seems we have heard this spin many times before. How many times have Al-Qaeda and Al Shabaab been on their last leg and about to die off? I agree the recent trend for Al Shabaab hasn't been good, but they still control a large section of Somalia, they still have control of around 5,000 fighters, and they were able to orchestrate a very sophisticated attack in another country, potentially with a multinational group of terrorists. If true that could imply the capacity to do the same in some locations in the West.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/22/world/...baab-analysis/

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Al-Shabaab has threatened revenge on Kenya ever since Kenyan forces entered Somalia.

Mall attack shows Al-Shabaab has taken its ability to strike outside Somalia to a new level.

The operation meets criteria that al Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri listed in a recent message.

Al-Shabaab allies in region include Kenyan militant group al Hijra and Eritrean government.

After years of infighting and feuds, the Nairobi attack may also confirm the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab's most militant faction and its leader Mukhtar Abu al Zubayr (aka Ahmed Abdi Godane). Zubayr attended a madrassa in Pakistan as a young man and merged the group with al Qaeda in February 2012. He sees Al-Shabaab as part of al Qaeda's global jihad.

Dissenters have defected or been killed. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys of Al-Shabaab's old guard surrendered to Somali authorities.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/kenya-...ry?id=20336438

During Congressional testimony in January 2012, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper listed al-Shabaab as one of the most significant terror threats to the homeland, in part due to a "foreign fighter cadre that includes U.S. passport holders... [who] may have aspirations to attack inside the United States."

However, a senior law enforcement official said the latest U.S. government analysis shows no heightened threat to the U.S. as a result of the Kenya attack. While al-Shabaab does have a desire to strike at Western targets in Africa, hitting the U.S. homeland is "not a priority" for them, the official said.

No predictions from me on this one, we'll see where this goes over the next few months.

[carl]

It seems to me that part of what will result from the attack depends upon how strong a sense national identity Kenyans have. Will they view this as an attack upon Kenya and Kenyans? I don't know and would be appreciative if some who know about this would comment.

[carl]

Here is a quote purportedly by a Kenyan general that I pulled off an Allafrica.com twitter feed.

""An army general was asked: 'Can you forgive a terrorist?' He replied: 'God forgives. Our task is to arrange their meeting'"

If the quote is accurate and the source real, I'd say that guy has his PR skills down pat.

[M-A Lagrange]

Tuesday, early morning, gunshots exchange broke out from Westgate Mall. Long after the Kenyan authorities announced they were in full control of the mall but lost tracks of the attackers...

Not being Kenyan I cannot really answer to Carl's question, but what is clear is that there is both a radicalization of Kenyans over Somalis and, at the same time, a real sense of national unity against madness raising that is crosscutting all ethnic and religious groups.

I recommend the following article that analyses what's behind the attack and what it means for Al Shebaab.

Kenya attack is product of brutal power struggle within al-Shabaab

But Westgate also looks like a chilling statement of intent by Ahmed Abdi Godane, the al-Shabaab leader, who consolidated his power in June in an internal coup. Among four top commanders who were executed by Godane were two of the group's co-founders, known as al-Afghani and Burhan. Al-Shabaab's spiritual leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, fled for his life, and was subsequently detained by Somali government forces.

The infighting continues. Earlier this month, the Alabama-born al-Shabaab commander Omar Hammami, known as Abu Mansoor al-Amriki or "the American", and a British national known as Usama al-Britani, were shot dead in a dawn raid on their hideout by Godane's allies. Hammami, who was on Washington's most wanted list, had previously accused Godane of behaving like a dictator.

Godane, also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubayr, was behind al-Shabaab's decision in 2011 to affiliate to al-Qaida and adopt its global jihadist outlook. It is Godane who is said to have ordered the 2010 bombings in Kampala that killed 74 people – in protest at Uganda's participation in Amisom. In 2011 he published a jihadist video entitled "At your service, Osama". In it he vowed that "the wars will not end until sharia [law] is implemented in all continents in the world". Even before Westgate, he was one of the world's most wanted terrorists, with a $7m bounty on his head.

Sheikh Aweys, in contrast, is seen as a Somali Islamist nationalist opposed to foreign intervention of any kind, be it jihadist, western or African, a position he elaborated in a rare interview with the Guardian in 2008. His vanquishing was a victory for the hardliners, who are now in the ascendant. "[They] will want to show that it [al-Shabaab] remains a cohesive force, and my fear is that there will be an escalation of conflict, with more bombings," the Kenya-based Somali analyst Rashid Abdi presciently told the BBC after the June coup.

Al-Shabaab is under pressure on a number of other fronts. Having been ejected from the capital Mogadishu two years ago, it is facing a renewed campaign to retake key towns in central Somalia. Last week the central town of Mahadeey was overrun by Somali troops backed by Amisom. Although it still controls much of the south, loss of territory means loss of revenue and influence for the group. Meanwhile, 150 leading clerics have signed a government-supported fatwa asserting that al-Shabaab under Godane has strayed from the true path of Islam.

The apparent decision by Godane and fellow hardliners to again take the fight beyond Somalia's borders looks like a bid to regain the initiative in the face of these setbacks and disagreements. In addition, the group's occasional bomb attacks in Mogadishu keep the government on the back foot. The recent decision by the charity Médecins Sans Frontières to pull out of Somalia, due to worsening security, is a perverse vindication of such tactics. And Godane doubtless welcomes the negative impact of Barclays Bank's decision to close accounts used to send remittances to Somalia.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...le-al-shabaab#!