A war in the Gulf / Straits of Hormuz: the past and the future

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 8 Sep 08: Security Challenges and Threats in the Gulf: A Net Assessment

The next President and Congress will have to deal with all of the security issues that affect the Gulf, not just the Iraq War and Iranian proliferation. The attached briefing provides a summary overview of the issues that the US and its allies need to address, with supporting graphics and maps. Both Gulf and US policymakers need to reassess their priorities in dealing with the threats to the Gulf.

Regardless of the outcome of the war in Iraq, the US, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, and other US allies with interests in the Gulf will need to adapt their forces to deal with the real-world threats in the region, and to make more effective efforts at cooperation, creating forces that are focused on real-world needs for deterrence and defense, and that deal with the full range of threats and not the most obvious military and security issues.

The Evolving Range of Threats

The Gulf does not face abstract threats or abstract potential enemies. At this point in time, it faces seven very real security challenges:

■ Conventional Military Threats and the Lack of Unity and Mission Focus in the GCC

■ Asymmetric warfare and ―Wars of Intimidation

■ Iranian Missiles and Proliferation

■ Iraqi Instability

■ Energy and Critical Infrastructure

■ Terrorism

o Region-wide impact of Neo-Salafi Islamist extremism. Franchising of Al Qa’ida, Sunni vs. Shi’ite tension, and its impact inside and outside the region
o War in Afghanistan, potential destabilization of a nuclear Pakistan, and impact on proliferation and Islamist extremism in the Middle East

■ Demographics, Foreign Labor, and Social Change

Complete 232-page pdf file at the link.

[reed11b]

CSIS, 8 Sep 08: Security Challenges and Threats in the Gulf: A Net Assessment

Complete 232-page pdf file at the link.

I need to order more hours in the day to keep up w/ all the relevant writings this site keeps making available.
Reed

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 21 May 09: Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities: Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare

While much of the world’s attention has focused on Iran’s missile developments and possible nuclear capabilities. Yet this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas. Far more immediate threats have emerged in terms of asymmetric warfare, terrorism, piracy, non-state actors, and other threats.

This brief looks beyond Gulf waters and examines the problems created by Iran’s ties to other states and non-state actors throughout the region. It highlights Iran’s capabilities for asymmetric warfare, but it also examines the threat from terrorism and the role it can play in nations like Yemen. It looks at the trends in piracy and in the threat in the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean.

The key issues addressed are:

• Terrorism

• Asymmetric Warfare

• Maritime and Border Security

• Combating Piracy

• Critical facilities and Infrastructure

• Role of Chokepoints

• Role of State and Non-State Actors

[davidbfpo]

An old thread, still a good place for this puzzling Israeli think-tank report on Persian Gulf relationships: http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/mal.../iran_e009.pdf

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Time to update an old thread and hopefully the best place for this comment article by Professor Paul Rogers; opening paragraph:

The ability of Iran’s military to learn from experience and become adept in irregular warfare echoes that of insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. It also presents the United States with hard choices.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...and-new-normal

[AdamG]

Be careful what you wish for regarding how other powers react to the latest effort to ratchet up pressure on Iran. Especially when the other power is as potent a competitor as China. China depends on Iran for eleven percent of its imported oil. The idea of joining in a de facto embargo of Iranian oil through ostracism of the Iranian central bank thus naturally discomfits the Chinese. It is still unclear exactly how Beijing will play this one, as it considers how the issue affects both its relations with the United States and the state of its energy-thirsty economy. An obvious response is to work ever harder to shore up China's relations with the other Persian Gulf oil producers. That is largely what Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's current trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is about.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/pau...sian-gulf-6374

[AdamG]

U.S. intelligence agencies are closely watching Saudi Arabia for signs that the oil-rich kingdom will seek to develop nuclear weapons, amid tensions in the region centered on Iran’s nuclear program.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...627123/?page=2

[davidbfpo]

A fascinating update and commentary on the naval situation in the Persian Gulf / Straits of Hormuz:http://www.naval-technology.com/feat...ind-hyperbole/

Curiously Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) has once again taken a leap forward by buying hi-tech equipment, this time from the UK (a story I'd missed) and in the past we had the Swedish Boghammer sale.

Their goal is to replace their underperforming Chinese and North Korean vessels with indigenously produced FACs to participate in 'swarm attacks,' a tactic in which waves of small vessels attack a larger slow capital target overwhelming it with small arms / RPG / missile fire, or even ramming it in suicide kamikaze-style attacks.

Oddly the article skims over the positioning of a large number of SSM, one having such a large warhead it would destroy a supertanker's superstructure.