A war in the Gulf / Straits of Hormuz: the past and the future

[MattC86]

CNN and others are reporting the Iranian Navy, currently overseen (or commanded, I'm not 100% sure) by the Revolutionary Guard, "harassed" the Arleigh Burke destroyer USS Hopper, the Ticonderoga cruiser USS Port Royal, and the frigate USS Ingraham in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, sailing within 200 yard of one ship, dropping "white boxes" in the water, and sending threatening radio messages.

The Navy reports officers on one ship were "in the process of giving the order to fire" when an Iranian vessel was within 200 yards, but the Iranian vessel turned back before the US fired a shot.

This seems to be a major provocation - and we were, by the Navy's own account, moments away from opening fire, with inevitable major consequences.

Of course, CNN refers to the would-be attackers as "boats" and "ships" both in the report - so we have no idea what they were; they could be anything from a zodiac to frigates, though I'd bet on something approaching the former. . .

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/...avy/index.html

What level of provocation do you think would have to occur for the US to take a Praying Mantis-level response?

Matt

[Tom Odom]

here is the NYTs

Says it was the IRGC again using five fast boats,

U.S. Describes Confrontation With Iranian Boats
THOM SHANKER and BRIAN KNOWLTON

Published: January 8, 2008
WASHINGTON — In a brief confrontation in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, five armed Iranian fastboats took aggressive actions around three United States Navy warships in international waters, according to a Pentagon spokesman, who called the moves “reckless and dangerous.”

The incident, which ended uneventfully after about 20 minutes took place as the three American vessels were sailing into the Persian Gulf, according to Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman. The American vessels were a destroyer, a frigate and a cruiser.

[Jedburgh]

What level of provocation do you think would have to occur for the US to take a Praying Mantis-level response?

They would have to move beyond provocation to presenting an actual physical threat to our Naval Forces in the Gulf.

The navies of the US and the USSR used to play provocative games with each other for decades - ranging from the occasional belligerent nonsense as described above to continual attempts (successful and not) at strategic probing of defenses.

If you recall, Operation Praying Mantis was launced in retaliation for the Iranians mining the Gulf - which we discovered when the USS Samuel B. Roberts struck a mine and blew a gaping hole in her hull. Three days later, payback. I don't believe they've forgotton that lesson.

The current belligerance is, as you stated, mere provocation. And the intent is to elicit a disproportionate response. I don't think its necessary to lay out the potential negative effects of that type of incident.

[MattC86]

If you recall, Operation Praying Mantis was launced in retaliation for the Iranians mining the Gulf - which we discovered when the USS Samuel B. Roberts struck a mine and blew a gaping hole in her hull. Three days later, payback. I don't believe they've forgotton that lesson.

The current belligerance is, as you stated, mere provocation. And the intent is to elicit a disproportionate response. I don't think its necessary to lay out the potential negative effects of that type of incident.

That's true, my example was disproportionate to the provocation here; nothing comparable to the Roberts incident. However, the Navy's own account claims that they were in the process of "giving the order to fire" when the IRGC fast-attack boats turned away at 200 yards - danger close. Even the firing of a couple .50MGs would have been a major escalation, and could have caused exactly the negative effects you're referring to. We sink a "fastboat" with .50cal fire, and what happens next?

Granted, that's pure speculation, but the accounts indicate it was closer than would be comfortable.

And I think the combination of geographical constraints in the Strait and Gulf, combined with the partial asymmetry of the threat - a Soviet blue-water fleet vs. IRGC fastboats, light warships, shore-based missiles, etc., makes this a more dangerous flashpoint.

The old rule about ROE not relieving the commander of responsibility for his ship could lead to itchy trigger fingers, IMO. Especially with provocations and threats like this one.

Maybe I'm overreacting. . .

Matt

[Ron Humphrey]

Maybe I'm overreacting. . .

Matt

They obviously had underlying purpose behind their actions and it is almost doubtless they will continue doing so in some manner until it achieves whatever end they are seeking.

Testing the lines.

They've already shown what they will do with their actions concerning the Brit's

Don't expect this to be the last thing we see.

[Rex Brynen]

via the BBC (video/audio link in the article).

[Rex Brynen]

US doubts over Iran boat 'threat'
BBC News, Thursday, 10 January 2008, 20:49 GMT

Iran has described the incident as an "ordinary occurrence"

An alleged threat to blow up US warships "may not have come" from Iranian speedboats involved in a recent stand-off, the BBC has learned.
The voice on a Pentagon tape could instead have come from another ship in the area or a transmitter on land, senior US Navy sources told the BBC.

---

On a side note, a Brit working with the Omani navy/coastguard once told me that smugglers use swarming tactics too, overwhelming local patrols by making simultaneous runs with dozens of high speed boats (I'm not suggesting any connection whatsoever--just an interesting Straits of Hormuz tidbit!)

[Jedburgh]

International Security, Summer 08:

Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

....could Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? What might provoke Iran to take an action so contrary to its own economic interests? Does Iran possess the military assets needed to engage in a campaign in the strait, and what might such a campaign look like? Perhaps more important, what would the U.S. military have to do to defend the strait in the event of Iranian interference there? What would be the likely cost, length, and outcome of such efforts?

[120mm]

While it would "suck" in the short term, one would hope the US would drag their feet just a little in responding in order to get some "quid pro quo" from those nations which benefit from the US as "globo-cop" when it comes to a free supply of middle east oil.

[Jedburgh]

WINEP, 24 Sep 08: Iran's Asymmetric Naval Warfare

This study sheds light on Iran’s naval intentions and capabilities by exploring the military geography of the Persian Gulf and Caspian regions, reviewing the historical evolution of Iran’s approach to asymmetric warfare, assessing its naval forces, and evaluating its plans for a possible war with the United States. The study ends with a quick overview of several possible scenarios.

Since the end of the Iran-Iraq War, Iran has invested substantially in developing its navy (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy) along unconventional lines. The most important developments in this regard include the deployment of mobile coastal missile batteries, modern anti-ship missiles mounted on fast-attack craft, semi-submersibles, midget submarines, modern naval mines, unmanned aerial vehicles (possibly including “kamikaze” attack versions), and improved command, control, communications, and intelligence.

This study concludes that despite Iran’s overall defensive posture in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, it could take preemptive action in response to a perceived threat of imminent attack. And in the event of a U.S. attack, the scale of Iran’s response would likely be proportional to the scale of the damage inflicted on Iranian assets.

Complete 40-page report at the link.

[SWJED]

Bowling for Boghammars … 2008 Edition by Malcolm Nance at SWJ Blog.

The tense encounter between a squadron of US Navy Warships and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC or Pasdaran) and Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IIRN) boats is not a new adventure by any stretch of the imagination. However, the most recent incident is neither an attempt to create a modern-day Gulf of Tonkin incident nor a move by the IRGC to a new tactic with which to harass passing ships. There is a long history of American and Iranian naval confrontation that spans over 20 years here. An accurate reading of what has happened and what could happen, should inform the reader of what most likely did happen...

[davidbfpo]

Absolutely superb article by Malcolm Nance, supplying the context and details of this naval encounter.

If such IRGC activity is a regular event I have two questions, do other navies have the problem (excluding Royal Navy) and is the activity ordered from the highest level of the Iranain government?

I now suspect the encounter only became public knowledge as the now identifed external speaker intervened, but this only was known after the "spin" doctors and politicians got involved raising the temperature.

davidbfpo