This study sheds light on Iran’s naval intentions and capabilities by exploring the military geography of the Persian Gulf and Caspian regions, reviewing the historical evolution of Iran’s approach to asymmetric warfare, assessing its naval forces, and evaluating its plans for a possible war with the United States. The study ends with a quick overview of several possible scenarios.
Since the end of the
Iran-Iraq War, Iran has invested substantially in developing its navy (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy) along unconventional lines. The most important developments in this regard include the deployment of mobile coastal missile batteries,
modern anti-ship missiles mounted on fast-attack craft, semi-submersibles, midget submarines, modern naval mines, unmanned aerial vehicles (possibly including “kamikaze” attack versions), and improved command, control, communications, and intelligence.
This study concludes that despite Iran’s overall defensive posture in the Persian Gulf and the
Strait of Hormuz, it could take preemptive action in response to a perceived threat of imminent attack. And in the event of a U.S. attack, the scale of Iran’s response would likely be proportional to the scale of the damage inflicted on Iranian assets.
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