Today's Wild Geese: Foreign Fighters in the GWOT

[Bill Moore]

The Soufan Group publish a free e-newsletter and so far they have been of interest. This week came this short comment:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-global-jihad/

The opening two passages:


I do think the era of containment overseas maybe evolving, although without any clear direction. Just whether staying alert at home and simply being better pre-attack intervention is a moot point.

I read the short article and frankly was disappointed that so many senior analysts could come to this conclusion.

The age of large-scale international intervention into conflict areas has passed for the moment and the battlefield is shifting back from war zones to disaffected neighborhoods—forcing intelligence agencies to work extremely closely with local police to disrupt known wolves of terror instead of documenting their crimes after the fact.

Before and since 9/11 there have been several terrorist attacks outside war zones, so to assume the recent attack in Tunisia represents a turning point seems a bit odd. To assume there are no longer any war zones discounts the major war zones in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, and Libya. I see little new in the character of Islamist terrorism other than its mindless escalation in violence, especially violence directed against other Muslims. Countering the threat will continue to require military, diplomatic, law enforcement, and informational efforts.

[davidbfpo]

Bill,

I did wonder if the Soufan conclusion reflected their own expertise as a commercial provider of expertise.

Citing that one passage again:

The age of large-scale international intervention into conflict areas has passed for the moment and the battlefield is shifting back from war zones to disaffected neighborhoods—forcing intelligence agencies to work extremely closely with local police to disrupt known wolves of terror instead of documenting their crimes after the fact.

It would have made more sense if had stated:

The age of large-scale Western international intervention into conflict areas has passed for now, unless an attack akin to 9/11 happens. Instead of a battlefield where the West dominates the emphasis will be on local and regional responses to violence. In many places violence occurs in less governed spaces e..g. the Sahel and for many societies the competition with jihadists is in their disaffected urban neighborhoods. The identification of attackers, whether 'lone wolves' or groups, will come from the joint work of intelligence agencies and local police. Retaining community support is vital - they may even help!