Today's Wild Geese: Foreign Fighters in the GWOT

[davidbfpo]

I have refrained from posting the many reports on the flow of European recruits to the violent jihad in Syria, with the various estimates of the numbers involved and the rare report on persons returning being arrested.

Here is a good introduction:

Syria since 2011 has emerged as the greatest of all jihad contests for foreign fighters. Given its proximity to Europe, large numbers of Westerners have gone to fight in Syria, via Turkish “ratlines,” raising concerns among European security services about what these violent young men might do when they return home. Significant numbers of angry young mujahidin from Europe have joined the fight in Syria, on a scale never before seen in counterterrorism circles, leading to something approaching panic among Western intelligence agencies.

Link:http://20committee.com/2013/11/16/sy...eaches-europe/

The article is about recent arrests in Kosovo, the author wonders if the action was prompted by militants assaulting two US citizens.

[Bill Moore]

I have refrained from posting the many reports on the flow of European recruits to the violent jihad in Syria, with the various estimates of the numbers involved and the rare report on persons returning being arrested.

Here is a good introduction:

Link:http://20committee.com/2013/11/16/sy...eaches-europe/

The article is about recent arrests in Kosovo, the author wonders if the action was prompted by militants assaulting two US citizens.

Some supporting fires:

http://theconversation.com/is-it-a-p...to-syria-18283

Is it a problem that Australia sends the most foreign fighters to Syria?

ASIO believes that there are at least 200 Australians who have gone to fight in Syria, more than double the number believed from any other Western country.

But why has Australia’s contribution to the Syrian War been so large both in absolute numbers and relative to its population size?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...orm-/?page=all

Foreign jihadists surpass Afghan-Soviet war, storm Syria in record numbers

The number of foreigners in Syria has not reached the level in Afghanistan three decades ago, but that civil war lasted nine years, while the Syrian rebellion is 2 years old.

Mr. Zelin said the rate of foreign recruits streaming into Syria is “unlike anything else.”

The foreign fighters — called jihadists, or holy warriors — come from at least 60 nations. Most are Arabs from Saudi Arabia, Libya and Tunisia, but a few dozen are from Western Europe, particularly Britain, Belgium, France and the Netherlands, Mr. Zelin said. Ten to 20 fighters have come from the United States, he said

.

http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-du...ngent-in-syria

The Dutch Foreign Fighter Contingent in Syria

This author has identified at least 20 individuals from the Netherlands who have fought or are fighting in Syria, although there could be more than 100.[6] At this point, it is not possible to access specific details about the fighters’ backgrounds—such as their socioeconomic positions—but in some of the cases there is enough information to paint a rough sketch of these foreign fighters.

The majority of the 20 identified Dutch foreign fighters came from Moroccan, Somali and Turkish communities in the Netherlands, although one Dutch man was originally from Bosnia.[7] Most commonly, the individuals in question are of Moroccan descent.[8] They largely came from the Dutch cities of Zeist, Delft, Rotterdam and The Hague (specifically the notorious Schilderswijk[9] neighborhood).[10]

Abu Fidaa was confident that the jihadists in Syria have an excellent strategy. He claimed that they can easily uncover a spy, and that their long-term vision gives them ideological and strategic strength. This is the advantage they have over secular groups, said Abu Fidaa. The non-secular rebels do not look at Syria in a vacuum; after freeing Syria from Bashar al-Assad, he explained, they will help their Palestinian brothers. According to Abu Fidaa, “We are not planning to return [to the Netherlands]. Freeing Syria will take a while. A true mujahid will never be able to leave Syria…If we give up at any point, all our efforts and the efforts of people before us will have been for nothing.

According to the AIVD, “Several members of radical Islamist organisations such as Sharia4Holland and Behind Bars are among those that left to Syria to join the jihad. This is indicative of how blurred the line between radicalism and jihadism has become. These movements have created an environment in which people with similar ideas meet and develop radical ideas into jihadist ideologies. This group dynamic has led to a rapid radicalization of many individuals as well as concrete attempts to join the jihad in Syria.”

[davidbfpo]

How governments should respond to foreign fighters appears to be on the public agenda - at least in the UK.

Tonight a short BBC report:

Two men from Birmingham have been arrested on suspicion of terrorism offences relating to activities in Syria, police have said.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25720887

Days ago the BBC reported:

Extremists who undertake terrorism training could face life in prison under a new government proposal. The life terms would replace current 14-year maximum sentences for activities including weapons training and making or possessing explosives.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25678300

Amongst the critics of this proposal was King's College's Dr Peter Neumann, of ICSR; which is reflected in the proposals - which emphasis prevention rather than imprisonment - being made by his associate at a parliamentary committee tomorrow:http://icsr.info/2014/01/icsr-insigh...ighters-syria/

[davidbfpo]

Found on a LinkedIn discussion board today and rather startling for me, as I have never heard of such numbers of Americans being involved:

The US had thousands of Muslims go to Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation. Many went more than once. Even with bin Laden's rise to leadership of AQ and declared war against America we never saw any violence from the returning jihadists. But I am not saying it won't/can't happen now...

Anyone able to verify this?

[davidbfpo]

Thomas Hegghammer, of the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, has a good piece in WaPo 'Number of foreign fighters from Europe in Syria is historically unprecedented. Who should be worried?'. He opens with:

Since 2011, large numbers of European Muslims have gone to Syria to fight with the rebels. But exactly how many are they, and which countries are providing most of the fighters? The question matters because some of these foreign fighters may return to perpetrate attacks in the West, and Western governments are now grappling with the question of how to design and calibrate countermeasures.

Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ld-be-worried/

Why the title? He writes:

Incidentally, it is worth noting, for perspective, that the Danish Syria contingent of 65 people is the population-adjusted equivalent of 3,600 Americans.

There is a main thread on foreign fighters, but this article warrants a new, temporary thread. The main thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=14841

I know that European Muslims, a simple generalisation, have fought before in conflicts such as Bosnia, Kashmir, Afghanistan, maybe Chechnya and without much adverse comment at the time in Libya. Often those who survive have not actually fought, although they claim to; some remain in situ, a good number die and others return totally disenchanted.

What is intriguing is the estimated number of fighters coming from Denmark and Norway, although maybe not nationals.

During the Spanish Civil War, which has some similarities to Syria, large numbers of volunteers fought with the Republicans - following their "left-wing" views and the need to confront fascism. The 'International Brigades' are well known, unlike the small numbers of volunteers who fought for the Nationalists.

In my very limited reading I do not recall the return of the 'International Brigades' being seen as a national threat; monitored yes and some curiously formed part of the instructor cadre of SOE in WW2.

[ganulv]

In my very limited reading I do not recall the return of the 'International Brigades' being seen as a national threat; monitored yes

One of my favorite anthropologists, Elman Service, was a veteran of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade.

and some curiously formed part of the instructor cadre of SOE in WW2.

Dedicated to the fight against international fascism. Makes perfect sense to me!

[davidbfpo]

In talking to a couple of local community contacts a variety of reasons have been given for the motives of those who fight on the 'rebel' side in Syria. Curiously much emphasis was put on non-ideological reasons:

It is a humanitarian jihad...The Alawite's are heretics...the conflict is glamourised....people here (in Birmingham, UK) feel helpless as they watch non-MSM footage of the war and simply want to do something physical themselves.

Talking about the threat of 'returning fighters' one was quite dismissive:

How many have fought overseas before? Very, very few return to launch attacks....Many having "tasted" real-life battle are not the same, it turns them off. Yes a few can "flip" and others can see that happening if they socialise.

One remarked that:

We ask them, the aspiring jihadist fighters, those who claim they must go to Syria to help, what are you doing now to help? The war is two years old. Do you realise most assistance for civilians / refugees come from non-Muslims in the West and their governments? When did you last contribute to a collection?

Recommended as a source was an American convert, Bilal Abdul Kareem, who now reports from inside Syria. From an interview he explains:

It has been a long year but one that I think is well worth it. I’ve met some extraordinary people and I really feel that more people need to know who these Islamic fighters are and what they want. That doesn’t mean that my goal is for them to necessarily like them, but my goal is for them to know them and then they can decide for themselves.

Link:http://passionislam.com/articles.php?articles_id=265

[omarali50]

In the background of all these efforts, we must also remember that there is the matter of young men and their love affair with male bonding and adventure.
The ideological justification is obviously there, but this (biological?) urge is not trivial.
There is probably an extensive literature about such things that I am just too ill-informed to have read. I look forward to enlightening posts.

[Firn]

I think it is important to address at least one troublesome statistical bit about the catchy title. Obviously he put it up to get the attention American audience, but still some statistical problems get ignored in the whole article. I will tackle just one.

It is key to understand that small samples yield extreme results more often than large samples do which means the same as large samples are more precises than small samples.

A quick look at the last table, estimated fighters per million Muslims shows that the smallest countries tend indeed to give the most extreme results while the large countries tend to cluster around the center. Italy is at the first glance really the only outlier. (Interestingly the topic was and is pretty nonexistent in the Italian media)

Wikipedia gives a rough overview on muslim numbers per country:

Austria 475,000
Belgium 638,000
Bosnia 1,564,000
France 4,704,000
Denmark 226,000
Germany 4,119,000
Italy 1,583,000
Norway 144,000
Netherlands 914,000
Spain 1,021,000
Sweden 451,000
UK 2,869,000

The little I have read is that allmost all of the fighters stem from the male age group between 20-34, which usually makes up roughly 15% of the population. Even if we up this to 25% considering the immigration background to be on the safe side some numbers get very small indeed.

In Norways and Denmarks case we are around a pool of just 35000 and 55000 which make extreme outcomes of such rare events very likely. So no surprise that they are very far away from the mean.

This goes in doubly so for intelligence work, as they have to estimate their numbers for the whole country based on relative rare information about rare events.

This is a very tricky&hard thing to do which very likely will lead to considerable differences between the estimation process between countries even if would not take the chance factor in the relative rare informations about relative rare events into account. Even very smart guys in smart organizations will differ. Actually you can see that already to a good degree on their estimates. Some put an absolute number there, sometimes a round one, sometimes even an odd one, others have a bracket but the spread goes from roughly a 1/3 to factor 3!

To come back to the title it should be now obvious why it is a bad idea to take an extreme outcome from a small sample and to use it as base to get a 'perspective' for a nation the size of the USA.

The approach take in this short post is mostly based on Kahnemans work on 'small numbers'.

[davidbfpo]

One aspect of the current Gaza conflict is the role of foreign nationals serving with the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). Two US nationals died last week, IIRC both had dual nationality. It is an issue that leads to claims that those Muslims who fight in Syria currently are being treated very differently, usually by law enforcement and steps to discourage them going.

More recently two weeks during a public exchange in the UK ago we learnt that:

The Israeli military runs a programme called “mahal” which allows non-Israeli nationals of Jewish descent to join the ranks of the armed forces for an 18-month tour of duty.....The numbers of volunteers from the UK are small but significant: the IDF told Channel 4 News there are “around one hundred Brits currently serving” in its ranks....apparently with no legal difficulties...

Link:http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/...t-israel/18448

Today a UK-based blogger, formerly a reporter in the Middle East called for those serving in the IDF to be treated as other foreign fighters:http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/july....ae0sZGcY.dpbs

This is a longer, broader article:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...438651885.html

[davidbfpo]

http://www.economist.com/news/middle...f-hot-here-mum

Within this long article - with many points made - is this table:

[davidbfpo]

[davidbfpo]

Nice graphic via WaPo:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...washingtonpost

An estimated 15,000 militants from at least 80 nations are believed to have entered Syria to help overthrow the regime of President Bashar al-Assad according the CIA and studies by ISCR and The Soufan Group.

[Firn]

Nice graphics indeed.

[davidbfpo]

From ICSR a short commentary after an official German publication, which they explain as:

The German security authorities recently published a new study that brings together information on 677 individuals who departed Germany for Syria or Iraq before June 30, 2015.

The analysis is based on data provided by the German police and domestic intelligence agencies both at the federal and state level. It was jointly conducted by the Bundeskriminalamt (the Federal Criminal Police Agency), the Bundesamt fr Verfassungsschutz (the Federal Domestic Intelligence Service), and the Hessian Centre of Information and Expertise on Extremism, and released by the Permanent Conference of the Ministers of the Interior of the Lnder.
According to the German authorities, more than 800 people have left Germany for Syria or Iraq since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, though it is not possible to verify that they all reached the region. Around one third of the departees is known or assumed to have returned to Germany, of whom 70 are thought to have experienced armed combat with Islamic State, or at least undergone military training. About 130 Islamists from Germany are presumed to have been killed in the conflict.
This ICSR Insight highlights some of the other findings.

Link:http://cache.nebula.phx3.secureserve...ZhMmJkYmY6Ojo6

[davidbfpo]

The industrious Norwegian SME Thomas Hegghammer was interviewed on what kinds of terror attacks do we have to expect in Europe, and how dangerous are returning Foreign Fighters? Link:http://abususu.blogspot.de/2015/01/t...us-for-at.html

Here is one passage:

....we do know is the proportion of people who returned from previous battlefields and then plotted attacks. Before Syria, that rate was 1 out of 15 to 20. If you look at open source data about returnees from Syria who were involved in terror plots across Europe, we have so far seen about 10 plots with roughly 20 returnees involved. That is 20 out of 3000 who left to fight abroad, or 20 out of just over 1000 who have already returned, repectively. So far, it is only a small minority who have become terrorists. The question before us is: How do you stop that minority without over-reacting towards the relatively harmless majority?

Yes there is a thread on foreign fighters, but IMHO what Hegghammer says has few equals.

[Bill Moore]

It was a good interview and he didn't minimize the threat. The current numbers mean little, which is why he didn't focus on numbers. Sleeping cells can sleep, but more importantly those that return can build there their own networks in their home country much like JI did in Indonesia. The threat is serious and there is no reason it will reside in 10 years. It has already existed over 20 years. We need to find the sweet spot between over and under reacting.

[Bob's World]

Europe used to celebrate their heritage of going off to be foreign fighters in the Levant - they called it "The Crusades."

There was major civil war and unrest when those fighters returned as well. Radical Christians were far more disruptive than radical Muslims have been to date.

But then as now, the real problem was not that people went off to fight for religiously motivated causes, nor that they returned with military skills and a global perspective. The problems stemmed from the perceived state of governance they returned to and an enhanced determination not to put up with it any more.

A very similar effect occurred in the US with the African American population after WWII.

Europe is evolving culturally, and no amount of neo Nazism is going to change that fact. Many emigrants perceive themselves discriminated against, Muslims in particular, and no amount of rationalization by those who consider themselves true citizens is going to change that.

Ten years? Only if the people and governments get serious about addressing perceived discrimination and accept the fact that once again, Europe is in an era of major cultural evolution.

Blaming those calling for radical action is natural, but it is little different than blaming the civil rights movement in the US on men like Dr. King and Malcolm X. They just "saw a parade and leapt in front. We need to think more honestly about why these types of "parades" form

[Bill Moore]

WarPorcus,

I'm not sure what statistics you're looking for, but I'll do a search through my computer tomorrow and see what I have for foreign fighter flow from Southeast Asia. A few reports point to several foreign fighters being disillusioned by ISIL's extreme behavior, so hopefully that trend continues. As for Indonesia and the Philippines (similar but still very different), JI and ASG's initial core were foreign fighters from Afghanistan during the USSR occupation. The vast majority of fighters returning that conflict didn't engage in terrorism, but it only takes a handful to have a strategic impact.

We can't compare this to the Crusades where Christians go out and fight and return to their Christian homes, nations that were already somewhat extremist on the Christian side. Fighters today are returning to countries that don't embrace their extreme (and illegitimate) beliefs, so some seek to impose their views via violence. Indonesia from what I can gather from a few short trips there, discussions with experts, and reading is that the government is doing a relatively good job of addressing the concerns of their people (within reason in a developing country), so people aren't fighting because they're being discriminating against. They're fighting to impose their extreme and unpopular beliefs. We're talking Martin L. King freedom marches here (lol).

The Philippines is another issue altogether, since their government does discriminate against their Muslim population. The government does little to address the concerns of their Muslim population, and while President Aquino has a been light of hope, his time is getting short, and not unlike our system their Congress is corrupt and eager to undo much of the progress he has made. I project the situation will devolve for the worse in the Philippines.

Regardless of the conditions on the ground, the terrorists in these countries will reconnect, or strengthen their existing links with global terrorist networks based on foreign fighter flow to support ISIL. That points to a bigger challenge for security forces. I also think those who were repulsed by ISIL may find al-Qaeda more attractive if they're still looking a group to affiliate with. Reportedly, the jihadist websites/blogs in Indonesia contain a fierce internal debate between jihadists on whether to support ISIL or AQ.

For one, I see no reason this will go away in 10 years, but hopefully it can be contained to a manageable level.

[OUTLAW 09]

WarPorcus,

I'm not sure what statistics you're looking for, but I'll do a search through my computer tomorrow and see what I have for foreign fighter flow from Southeast Asia. A few reports point to several foreign fighters being disillusioned by ISIL's extreme behavior, so hopefully that trend continues. As for Indonesia and the Philippines (similar but still very different), JI and ASG's initial core were foreign fighters from Afghanistan during the USSR occupation. The vast majority of fighters returning that conflict didn't engage in terrorism, but it only takes a handful to have a strategic impact.

We can't compare this to the Crusades where Christians go out and fight and return to their Christian homes, nations that were already somewhat extremist on the Christian side. Fighters today are returning to countries that don't embrace their extreme (and illegitimate) beliefs, so some seek to impose their views via violence. Indonesia from what I can gather from a few short trips there, discussions with experts, and reading is that the government is doing a relatively good job of addressing the concerns of their people (within reason in a developing country), so people aren't fighting because they're being discriminating against. They're fighting to impose their extreme and unpopular beliefs. We're talking Martin L. King freedom marches here (lol).

The Philippines is another issue altogether, since their government does discriminate against their Muslim population. The government does little to address the concerns of their Muslim population, and while President Aquino has a been light of hope, his time is getting short, and not unlike our system their Congress is corrupt and eager to undo much of the progress he has made. I project the situation will devolve for the worse in the Philippines.

Regardless of the conditions on the ground, the terrorists in these countries will reconnect, or strengthen their existing links with global terrorist networks based on foreign fighter flow to support ISIL. That points to a bigger challenge for security forces. I also think those who were repulsed by ISIL may find al-Qaeda more attractive if they're still looking a group to affiliate with. Reportedly, the jihadist websites/blogs in Indonesia contain a fierce internal debate between jihadists on whether to support ISIL or AQ.

For one, I see no reason this will go away in 10 years, but hopefully it can be contained to a manageable level.

Bill--will give you a short story on just how shortsighted the US government, the US IC and just about the entire senior military leadership has been since 1993 when it comes to guerrilla warfare and Islamic insurgents.

Back in 1991-1993 when the US Army had a light infantry fighting division the 7th they came to our Reserve Intel Center near the Presidio and asked if we could design a "guerrilla/insurgent scenario" for them to train all non intel types in their BN staffs for the whole division--they picked this as it was similar to their Panama mission and their general outlook on how they were going to be used in the future.

And presto the 7th "disappeared" after the training was completed as we were in the "peace dividend drawdown" and there were going to be "no future needs for a light infantry division focused on UW/guerrilla warfare".

I together with a great Order of battle Tech (which "disappeared as well) then took the NEO for the Philippines and designed a complete 10 day scenario around no other than Abu Sayyaf who many at that time had heard not much from--we built then a robust guerrilla scenario focusing on driving staff functions designed to first detect what actually was ongoing, define the players and human terrain, design a info war messaging and then design a robust military response using light fighters coupled with Philippino military while protecting the civilian populations as much as possible.

After 10 days the staffs were exhausted but they had developed into a solid C-UW thinking team and had now a far deeper understanding of guerrilla warfare than when they came to us.

Fort Huachuca wanted a complete copy of the scenario and over 3000 messages as this was the day of the 289 computers and all was done by hand and typewriter.

THEN suddenly after they reviewed it--came the following "we anticipate no future guerrilla warfare or UW conflicts" and thanks for the efforts and it was canned somewhere in the depths of Ft. H.

Now 23 years later we are facing again what and where?? What a wasted 23 years when some truly saw what was coming at us over the horizon and the political and military leadership felt "peace was forever".

Remember it was the Philippines where we lost a truly great former SF officer/VN POW COL Rowe (remember this was 1989) in an out right assassination- who by the way knew it was coming as he called his wife the evening before to check on "legal things "and said goodbye something he had never done--and by the way that assassination was never fully investigated and had it's ties to the Islamic side of the house and some say the KGB. They had fired into what was later proven to be the only weak point in the armored glass which reflected someone knew our armored glass production and deficiencies.

It was there in 1993 for all to see--just no one wanted to seriously connect the dots to include the IC.

This fight has been with us since the very early 80s and it is not going away any time soon and the guesses of within the next 20 years is also wrong since the fight has been on since 1979 beginning with the name called Khomeini.