Today's Wild Geese: Foreign Fighters in the GWOT

[Bill Moore]

Outlaw 09,

I have painful memories of the 90s, and it wasn't just the conventional military that ignored the hard lessons related to irregular warfare. Special Forces officers were falling over themselves to demonstrate to their senior leaders that they were more conventional than the conventional army, because unconventional warfare was dead. Officers that today claim they always supported unconventional warfare, were the same ones fighting to kill our advanced HUMINT training (why would we need that?), kill our advanced urban warfare training, a few were even advocating killing our sniper program and SERE training (which actually taught you a lot about modern warfare), they killed our operations and intelligence course, which as you know was key was key to developing our future team sergeants (backbone of the ODA), got read of the Assistant Operations Sergeant position, in exchange for a specialized intelligence sergeant, they quit sending guys to advanced demolitions training, and on and on. Fortunately a few diehards resisted the dumbest proposed changes, but it didn't serve their careers well.

This mind set was based on the perceived need to conventionalize SF because UW was dead. It took a war and few years of it to get our heads right. Speaking of great leaders, I remember COL Nick Rowe well (I had the honor of him appointing me just before he went to the Philippines). He was one of the great ones, and his field of expertise went well beyond SERE. SF is making a come back, but it took a lot longer than it should have. Now that the wars have ended , we may be at risk of turning the clock back to 1994 or so.

[OUTLAW 09]

LTG (R) Mike Flynn @MTPFLYNN

Should Islam Be Reformed; So says a former Muslim who believes the religion she's rejected is completely corrupted.

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/631746

[davidbfpo]

LTG (R) Mike Flynn @MTPFLYNN
Should Islam Be Reformed; So says a former Muslim who believes the religion she's rejected is completely corrupted.

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/631746

Ayaan Hirsi Ali was on the BBC last night explaining her stance. It is hard to think of a person less likely to be listened to by Muslims than her, an openly declared atheist and awhile ago a Muslim who recanted her faith. Being a best-selling author, appearing on TV and courting controversy is IMHO hardly a recipe for Muslims to listen.

[SWJ Blog]

Flow of Foreign Fighters Plummets as Islamic State Loses its Edge

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[davidbfpo]

David Wells writes on CT, after government service, and advocates an amnesty:https://counterterrorismmatters.word...eme/#more-1031

Why? In part:

Which is why now might be the time for governments to consider a more proactive approach to shaping the foreign fighter outflow – specifically through a foreign fighter ‘amnesty’ or plea bargain scheme. Its broad aim would be to repatriate those foreign fighters disillusioned with the jihadist cause and keen to return home, but prevented from doing so by fear of a long prison sentence or their inability to leave the Middle East.
(He ends with) But given the risk and resource implications of the status quo, even the removal of a small number of foreign fighters from the battlefield would be worthwhile. And with Europe and much of the West facing a generation-long struggle against this threat, any scheme that makes countering it easier is surely worth considering.

By coincidence the free e-journal Perspectives on Terrorism has an article, from a more academic writer, and the Abstract says:

This article considers the implications of criminalised Muslim Diaspora community members from the West travelling to the Middle East and becoming involved in the terrorist activities of the Islamic State (IS), and ultimately returning from whence they came. It also reflects on the differences over time amongst the profile of recruits that have taken place since the time of the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan, to the ascendancy of IS. Recent research indicates both terrorist and organised crime groups draw recruits from the same Diaspora communities, a position supported in this article. While the focus of law enforcement and media attention appears to be on the potential of Islamic State Middle East veterans committing terrorist acts in the West on returning from conflict zones, there may well be a pervasive danger of them bringing significant risk to their countries of origin through enhanced participation in organised crime. The views of a selection of recently retired police professionals were gathered, and were found to support concerns around this potential significant and dangerous outcome of homecoming foreign fighters.

Link:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/541/1073
I am skeptical any government could pursue an amnesty, even if they participate in organized crime. At least outsiders are giving the issues some thought.

[davidbfpo]

A Dutch riposte:

The arguments made in favour of such a strategy – such as getting formers to denounce IS – are not strong enough to offset the need to punish those who joined a barbaric terrorist group and supported a campaign of death and destruction not just in the Levant but across the West. Countries where amnesties have worked took place in divided nations: this is not the case for foreign fighters. There are no “populations” where significant support for IS and IS fighters existed: hence no need for an amnesty to “clear the air” and help societies move on. Amnesty for IS fighters is thus probably a non-starter in the West.

Link:https://icct.nl/publication/should-g...eign-fighters/

[SWJ Blog]

Then and Now: Comparing the Flow of Foreign Fighters to AQI and the Islamic State

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[SWJ Blog]

Returning Foreign Fighters in the Caribbean: Issues and Approaches

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

Philippines Says Foreign Fighters Have Joined IS-Linked Militant Group

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[davidbfpo]

Three, if not four SWJ Blog links merged just.

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this four pg report:https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/balkan-foreign-fighters-syria-ukraine

A few passages:

Only with the emergence of Balkan jihadists fighting for Daesh did the question of foreign fighters come under the spotlight in the region.
None of the countries has been efficient at producing counter-narratives whether through main-stream media or via Internet and social media channels.
Ukrainian fighters remain just ‘ordinary extremists’. The lack of political will to tackle and condemn right-wing extremism is more than evident.

[davidbfpo]

A UN report (60 pgs) co-authored by Richard Barrett (ex-SIS) and Professor Hamed el-Said (Jordanian academic & UK citizen). Unusual as they interviewed forty-three fighters, most of them in jail in seven nations. A good literature review (ICSR, Soufan Group and others) and more within.

The 43 FTFs interviewed for the project represent 12 different nationalities. Of these, 33 (77 per cent) reached Syria, while ten (23 per cent) were either intercepted by their own authorities before departing their country of residence, or stopped by the authorities of a transit country while en route to Syria.

Later:

FTFs have many different motives for joining armed groups, but the idea of establishing a Caliphate does not appear to be prominent among them.

Link:http://www.un.org/en/counterterroris...l_20170727.pdf

The main thread is:Today's Wild Geese: Foreign Fighters in the GWOT

[davidbfpo]

Id'd via Twitter a Manual 'Responses to Returnees: Foreign Terrorist Fighters and their families' by the Radicalisation Awareness Network, an EU-funded project, 102 pgs.

Short of time just check pgs. 6 & 7, for graphics.

Link:https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/si..._a4_m10_en.pdf

[davidbfpo]

A lengthy BBC article by a SME, Lorenzo Vidino, which tries to describe and assess the problem many countries face.

For the UK he writes:

The head of the UK security service MI5 said this week that fewer than expected of the 800 Britons who joined IS had returned recently and that at least 130 had been killed....The UK Home Office, for example, disclosed last year that of the 400 British foreign fighters who had returned from Syria and Iraq, only 54 were convicted.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-41679377

[davidbfpo]

Rory Stewart is a junior UK minister, for international development, but is very media savvy and has experience in Afghanistan & Iraq (he even has his own thread at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=10832 ).

From his radio interview yesterday, which officials said was in line with government policy:

They are absolutely dedicated, as members of the Islamic State, towards the creation of a caliphate. They believe in an extremely hateful doctrine which involves killing themselves, killing others and trying to use violence and brutality to create an 8th Century, or 7th Century, state. So I'm afraid we have to be serious about the fact these people are a serious danger to us, and unfortunately, the only way of dealing with them will be, in almost every case, to kill them.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41717394

[davidbfpo]

The Soufan Group and another group led by Richard Barrett (ex-SIS & UN CT) have published an updated report (41 pgs) 'Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign Fighters and the Threat of Returnees'. There is a five point summary on pg.5.

Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/wp-conten...tober-2017.pdf

Short of time? Try this:https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-...-the-thousands

Or this podcast interview (3 mns) of Richard Barrett:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R-c...ature=youtu.be

A graphic via Twitter below: