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  1. #1
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    Default Situation Report on the Expedition to Iraq

    An article posted on Defense and the National Interest (DNI):
    http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/fabius_iraq_sitrep_11-2006.htm

    Describes my low expectations about the Iraq Study Group's recommendations, and in general to negotiations with Iran.

    Also lists 52 references to "the next six months are crucial" (more or less) by our leaders in the media, politicos, and generals.

    Your comments and thoughts, gentlemen and ladies?

  2. #2
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    Default Interesting, but give us 6 more months

    Interesting post, one that deserves some thought. You definitely hit on something regarding the well done (though apparently ignored) psychological response to tragic news. Another six months, the same plan (perhaps hyperized), and of course anticipate the same result. One definition of insanity is a person who repeats the same behavior and expects a different outcome, and I guess that apply to a group also. However, I think we're failing to discuss two key issues.

    First, the President and Congress keep turning to the military to come up with a solution, and pretend to listen to our general officers, while the solution must be political. The military facilitates the political solution. What is the political solution that we're trying to enable?

    Second, the talk of pulling out (I'm a minority in this group, I think we should, and I explained my position elsewhere on the site) is not going to force Iraq to solve its problems, because Iraq only exists in our memories. We destroyed its sovereignty and we're the only ones that maintain it. However, it will force Iraq's neighbors to come to grips with what having a basket case for neighbor means, and drive some regional responses, hopefully solutions.

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    Default What Iraq?

    All excellent points. Today there is no Iraq.

    We've destroyed Iraq's sovereignty, but more important is the destuction of its polity. The national structure exists first in the minds of its people, and the forces unleashed since our invasion -- not by us, but as a result of our actions -- appear to have destroyed that social fabric.

    Perhaps it can be rebuilt, but I doubt that some infidel foreigners can do so.

  4. #4
    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Default Realities and results

    Second, the talk of pulling out (I'm a minority in this group, I think we should, and I explained my position elsewhere on the site) is not going to force Iraq to solve its problems, because Iraq only exists in our memories. We destroyed its sovereignty and we're the only ones that maintain it. However, it will force Iraq's neighbors to come to grips with what having a basket case for neighbor means, and drive some regional responses, hopefully solutions.
    I think you have more company than you realize, Bill. The key element is of course defining pull out. I had the opportunity two days ago when a senior instructor from DLI stopped in. An Iraqi Christian who knows my instructors from 1982 (an Iraqi Christian married to an Iraqi Sunni), he was looking at langauage related training and we chatted for 2 hours or so. I asked about ethnic divisions inside Iraq and he described them as fault lines. I took the opportunity to demomstrate how this worked to my office mates by asking him to decribe his reaction to the fact that my instructors had married across these fault lines. He said, "we have ex-communicated her (the Christian). We have nothing to do with her." Keep in mind now that this guy and my instructors have been out of Iraq for decades and are quite westernized. My office companions later admitted they were surprised by this reaction.

    I think too many wishful thinkers have been surprised by the reactions inside Iraq based on what I call assumetric planning. We have to move beyond that; the ultimate fate of "Iraq" will be decided by whether the inhabitants decide to retain an "Iraqi" identity. we may be able to frame that decision, but military force alone will not suffice and in many ways at this stage may be gasoline on a fire. The most interesting thing I have seen this week were peeps coiming out of Iran, via approved "open" channels, that Iran's foreign policy establishment is very concerned we might pack it up and leave. That is the sort of leverage we need to use in politically framing what happens next.

    Best
    Tom

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default

    From a Law Enforcement perspective and I have said this before the Strategy framework of Ends,Ways,and Means does not seem to work so well in a COIN environment.

    I think It is better to use Motive,Means and Opportunity. Motives are far more powerfull than and End state. Motives can and will be eternal until you deal with them and to deal with them involves the other side. We want two groups that have hated each other for centuries to all of the sudden decide to play well with others in the sandbox. I don't think that will happen.

    Until you deal with the motive aspect or realize that maybe you can't deal with it, all you can do is referee the family feud.

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    Default

    I think ends, ways, and means work great. Slpaout, I think your model iss right on for examining what means we apply and how. I think we as a government understand what end we are looking for, but nobody can come to an agreement on what end to utilize and what ways support it. I think your descirption of motives and such is a great tool for doing this analysis and making the choice.

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