Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict

[Jack_Gander]

Serious discussions regarding the effect of climate change on global security are often encumbered by the political partisanship that surrounds attempting to determine the cause of the changes and the degree to which human activity harms the environment. However, if one accepts the fact that the global climate is changing (always has and always will) we can begin to examine some of the negative and positive effects.

The CAP recently released a report on Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict that brings to light some interesting observations on how climate change can stimulate future conflict. Some brief highlights:

• While noting that most refugee-recipient countries do not experience violence, Salehyan and Gleditsch argue that refugees fleeing civil wars into neighboring countries “often maintain ties to their homelands and continue to play an active role in conflicts at home, thereby physically extending rebel networks across space.
  
• Based on statistical analysis of refugee flows and conflict since 1951, Salehyan and Gleditsch found that “refugees from neighboring countries have a significant and positive effect on the probability of conflict.
  
• Fiona Adamson of the University of London examines the broader phenomenon of international migration and argues that it can influence state national security in three ways:
  • Challenging state autonomy and sovereignty
  • Reshaping the balance of power through the economic, military, and diplomaticimplications of shifting populations
  • Exacerbating the risk of conflict formation
  
• Though the link between climate change and migration is often seen as coincidental, it’s a serious human situation and a threat to the socio-economic and political stability of any country or society.”
  
• Emerging regional powers such as Brazil, Turkey, India, and South Africa should acknowledge that in this century their security will be inextricably linked to that of their respective regions. Presented with the challenge of climate change, migration, and conflict, these powers must assume greater regional responsibility in making effective preparations.

The findings of this new report compliment previous work by Jared Diamond Robert Lamb, CNAS and others. From Lamb’s UGASH Report:

Recent humanitarian emergencies or natural disasters: Where chaos and misery reign, illicit actors have opportunities to operate freely and recruit supporters. Refugee camps are notorious hideouts and sources of recruits for guerrillas and terrorists, and responses to natural disasters can make or break popular support for a domestic or foreign government or, on the other hand, for a terrorist or insurgent group. Such disasters therefore provide both opportunities and dangers for efforts to counter safe havens, by strengthening partners and weakening adversaries, or vice versa.

Will Climate change stimulate future small conflicts or is the threat over stated to support a political agenda?

Will states, Russia for example, actually benefit from changes?

Will global climate change and resource scarcity upset regional balances of power?