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Thread: Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict

  1. #1
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    Default Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict

    Serious discussions regarding the effect of climate change on global security are often encumbered by the political partisanship that surrounds attempting to determine the cause of the changes and the degree to which human activity harms the environment. However, if one accepts the fact that the global climate is changing (always has and always will) we can begin to examine some of the negative and positive effects.

    The CAP recently released a report on Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict that brings to light some interesting observations on how climate change can stimulate future conflict. Some brief highlights:

    • While noting that most refugee-recipient countries do not experience violence, Salehyan and Gleditsch argue that refugees fleeing civil wars into neighboring countries “often maintain ties to their homelands and continue to play an active role in conflicts at home, thereby physically extending rebel networks across space.
    • Based on statistical analysis of refugee flows and conflict since 1951, Salehyan and Gleditsch found that “refugees from neighboring countries have a significant and positive effect on the probability of conflict.
    • Fiona Adamson of the University of London examines the broader phenomenon of international migration and argues that it can influence state national security in three ways:
      • Challenging state autonomy and sovereignty
      • Reshaping the balance of power through the economic, military, and diplomaticimplications of shifting populations
      • Exacerbating the risk of conflict formation
    • Though the link between climate change and migration is often seen as coincidental, it’s a serious human situation and a threat to the socio-economic and political stability of any country or society.”
    • Emerging regional powers such as Brazil, Turkey, India, and South Africa should acknowledge that in this century their security will be inextricably linked to that of their respective regions. Presented with the challenge of climate change, migration, and conflict, these powers must assume greater regional responsibility in making effective preparations.


    The findings of this new report compliment previous work by Jared Diamond Robert Lamb, CNAS and others. From Lamb’s UGASH Report:

    Recent humanitarian emergencies or natural disasters: Where chaos and misery reign, illicit actors have opportunities to operate freely and recruit supporters. Refugee camps are notorious hideouts and sources of recruits for guerrillas and terrorists, and responses to natural disasters can make or break popular support for a domestic or foreign government or, on the other hand, for a terrorist or insurgent group. Such disasters therefore provide both opportunities and dangers for efforts to counter safe havens, by strengthening partners and weakening adversaries, or vice versa.
    Will Climate change stimulate future small conflicts or is the threat over stated to support a political agenda?

    Will states, Russia for example, actually benefit from changes?

    Will global climate change and resource scarcity upset regional balances of power?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-12-2012 at 06:15 PM. Reason: Citation in quotes

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    The problem with the whole exercise is that the effects of any climate change on future conflicts are not predictable. This is a problem where it's not really possible to be proactive.
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default More factors a changing?

    Jack,

    Some of the issues around 'Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict' do appear on SWC, for example there is a thread 'Kith & Kin: a recurrent issue':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8829

    Occasionally we have threads that pop up too, e.g. one on Russia in the Artic:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=13688

    To your questions:
    Will Climate change stimulate future small conflicts or is the threat over stated to support a political agenda?

    Will states, Russia for example, actually benefit from changes?

    Will global climate change and resource scarcity upset regional balances of power?
    1. Potentially. IMHO climate changes, for example the Sahel and the desert space spreading, mooted twenty years ago, has happened and with AFAIK little inter-state conflict. I suspect climate change has been over-stated.

    2. Wasn't there a theory, maybe a stated Russian / USSR political concern, that a lack of population in the Far East meant migration from China would led to a loss of sovereignty?

    3. Unless change and scarcity happen suddenly and quickly regional balances of power will adjust.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default UK MoD on climate change risks

    Sounds grand when in fact it is a short review of the impact on the defence estate from climate change, after a FOI request by Friends of the Earth:http://www.iiss.org/en/militarybalan...d-defence-afeb
    davidbfpo

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    1. Potentially. IMHO climate changes, for example the Sahel and the desert space spreading, mooted twenty years ago, has happened and with AFAIK little inter-state conflict. I suspect climate change has been over-stated.
    I'm not an expert on climate change, but it has a very visible impact on my life in Nigeria.

    The drying up of the region around Lake Chad has led to Fulani herdsmen moving down south and more intense inter-ethnic conflicts.

    I don't think climate change will result in inter-state conflicts in Africa. The real worry is intra-state (inter-ethnic) conflicts.

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