Iraq catch-all: after Operation Iraqi Freedom ended

[JWing]

Iraq has been beset by a new wave of violence following the raid upon protesters in Hawija in Tamim province. On April 23, 2013, security forces entered the protest camp in the town looking for the assailants who attacked a checkpoint four days beforehand that left one soldier dead and three wounded. That resulted in 30 people being killed, and dozens more wounded. Immediately afterward there were retaliatory attacks across northern and western Iraq. The Baathist Naqshibandi group took responsibility for many of these operations. That insurgent movement and others have been trying to take advantage of the demonstrations for months, and might have found their way in with the Hawija incident. The protesters themselves appear split between those calling for restraint, and the far more prevalent voices that want armed action against the government. Hawija therefore has brought up the divisions not only within the demonstrators, but the insurgency as well over how they will challenge Baghdad.

continued

[JWing]

April 2013 saw a dramatic increase in the number of deaths in Iraq. This was due to an on-going offensive by Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), and a series of retaliatory attacks by insurgents for a government raid upon protesters in the town of Hawija. The former has been going on since December 2012, and is likely to end within a month or two. The latter however, could lead to increased support for the insurgency. What lays ahead for Iraq is likely a rise in attacks and casualties for at least the short-term depending upon whether militants can sway the demonstrators to their side or not.

continued

[JWing]

The recent government crackdown upon demonstrators in the town of Hawija, and the ensuing violence has highlighted Iraq’s protest movement. People began taking to the streets in Anbar province after Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government issued an arrest warrant for former Finance Minister Rafi Issawi’s bodyguards for terrorism. Activism quickly spread to northern Iraq. Rather than being a monolithic group with a central leadership however, these protests have involved a variety of tribes, political parties, and insurgent groups across many different cities and towns. They have also been explicitly Sunni and sectarian compared to previous demonstrations in Iraq from 2011 and 2012, which were national in character. To breakdown these various movements and their agendas is Kirk H. Sowell, a Washington DC-based political risk analyst who is the editor of the biweekly newsletter, Inside Iraqi Politics.

continued

[JWing]

Sheikh Ali Hatem Sulaiman is one of the leaders of the Dulaim tribe, one of the largest in western Iraq that stretches into neighboring Jordan. Sulaiman has attached himself to the protest movement in Anbar, and has become known for his inflammatory speeches. It wasn’t that long ago however, that the sheikh was an ally of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. His path that led him from a supporter to an opponent of the government is due to Sulaiman’s opportunism, and desire to become a prominent sheikh throughout Iraq like his grandfather once was.

continued

[jmm99]

What think you of Patrick Cockburn's conclusions in "The Coming Iraqi Civil War" (about 30 min. audio) ?

Regards

Mike

[JWing]

Everytime violence spikes in Iraq someone starts talking about civil war. The current crisis is the worse since the civil war period, but the number of attacks and deaths are still far below that level. What Iraq looks to be heading towards is increasing instability both politically and on the security front with the two directly related. Still violence is confined to specific cities and regions and even in a city like Baghdad that has the most deaths it doesn't affect the majority of the population, plus the south and Kurdistan are mostly untouched.

[JWing]

Iraq’s Anbar province is seeing increasing tension. Since December there have been two large protests going on in Ramadi and Fallujah. After the government raid upon the Hawija demonstration site in Tamim governorate in April 2013 there has been an uptick in attacks as well. In May, things picked up with raids upon the residences of two leaders of the protests, as well as the kidnapping of several dozen soldiers and police, and the collapse of an offer to talk with Baghdad. With the way things are going this could be leading up to a security crackdown in the governorate aimed at not only clearing out militants, but shutting down the demonstrations as well.

continued

[jmm99]

Whether "something" constitutes a "civil war", or even a NIAC (Non-International Armed Conflict), rests to a large extent in the eyes of the beholder.

That being said, the Iraqis have been doing well in whacking each other over the past week - albeit from only media sources and thus the low hanging fruit of the lethality:

20 May - Monday Mayhem: 133 Killed, 283 Wounded in Iraq
19 May - Iraqi Police Targeted As Attacks Claim 44 Lives
18 May - Forty Killed Across Iraq; 13 Kidnapped in Anbar Province
17 May - Retaliation Against Sunnis Leave 90 Dead, 201 Wounded Across Iraq
16 May - Bombings Continue in Baghdad, Kirkuk; 40 Killed
15 May - Iraq Horror: 42 Killed, 141 Wounded

Just south of 400 KIA (~4,000 in relative population terms here in the States).

What period do you consider to be the "civil war period" ?:

The current crisis is the worse since the civil war period, but the number of attacks and deaths are still far below that level.

so that I can follow your logic.

Regards

Mike

[JWing]

2005-2008 was the civil war period. You had retaliation between Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias. Plus the government forces were actively involved as well on the side of the militias usually. There was sectarian cleansing of provinces as well, and fighting between Shiite militias in the south. Deaths were 1,500-2,000 per month. Plus there was fighting and violence throughout both northern, southern, and western Iraq.

Today's instability is more like 2003-2005 period. Govt no longer carries out counterinsurgency, but is more reactive and carries out mass arrests, raids, etc. Basically the security forces are acting like the U.S. did during that pre-civil war period with the same results, i.e. growing resentment amongst Sunnis, which leads to at least turning a blind eye to militants. Today violence is concentrated in just central, northern and western Iraq. Even then it is not as widespread as the civil war period. Within provinces like Anbar some cities like Fallujah are violent while others like Haditha have hardly any during the entire year. Today Shiites get upset after a bombing, but then go back to their daily lives. There's not the fear of going about their daily routines yet.

[JWing]

Iraq’s security situation has literally exploded. Al Qaeda in Iraq was already at the tail end of its latest offensive when security forces used excessive force against protesters in the town of Hawija in Tamim province in April 2013. That allowed militant groups to exploit the growing anger amongst the Sunni population, and launch a new wave of retaliatory attacks. That has led to a growing number of bombings and mass casualty attacks that have resulted in the highest death counts seen in years.

continued

[JWing]

Iraq is facing a worsening security situation, but the country is not yet in a civil war. What could change that is if Shiites decide they can no longer rely upon the government to protect them, and begin taking matters into their own hands as they did during the civil war period from 2005-2008. Rumors play a large role in Iraq, and currently what is spreading amongst Sunnis are stories of fake checkpoints manned by militiamen who kidnap and murder people. Political parties and the protest movement are magnifying these rumors, and have now incorporated them into their weekly discourse. What’s more is that it is still not clear whether Shiite armed groups are operating again or not. If they are remobilizing it could be a sign that Iraqi society is breaking down once more.

continued

[JWing]

The dramatic increase in violence in Iraq is now affecting not only the lives of the public, but the economy as well. Some companies have said their sales are down, they are cutting their hours, and transferring some of their business to safer areas, while Anbar announced that it was losing investors. These are all troubling signs, because for the last several years the insurgency has been at such a low level that it did not affect the larger society. Now that is changing, and the disruption of the economy is just the latest sign that Iraq is heading towards an unsettling future.

continued

[JWing]

In response to the deteriorating security situation, the Iraqi military has launched a series of clearing missions in Anbar, Ninewa, Tamim, and other provinces recently. These operations have received a growing number of complaints from politicians and average citizens who claim that the police and army are violating people’s rights, carrying out arbitrary arrests, hindering travel, and destroying property. This is in direct contrast to government statements, which emphasize the cooperation of the public. This turn of events points to two major shortcomings with the Iraqi forces. The first is that these are all clear and leave missions, which have no hope of lessoning the insurgency. Second, their punitive measures are antagonizing the population, which can only help the militants. Together that means that there is no military solution coming for Iraq’s growing violence.

continued

[JWing]

My new article for Tom Ricks' Best Defense

Iraq recently passed a milestone when the United Nations reported over 1,000 people killed in May 2013. That was the highest number of casualties since 2008. People are beginning to fear going out, and businesses are shifting to safer areas and closing earlier. There are also ongoing protests in Sunni provinces such as Anbar, Salahaddin, and Ninewa against the government, which are increasing sectarian tensions in the country. Together this has raised fears that the country is heading back towards civil war. While the situation is obviously getting worse, a more apt analogy would be Iraq in 2003 when the United States was facing a growing insurgency, and had no strategy to confront it.

continued

[JWing]

As the conflict in Syria has escalated, so has the involvement of foreign countries. Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and now the United States and England are all supporting one group or another in the war. Neighboring Iraq has also joined in the conflict. Every month there are reports about young Iraqis going to fight in Syria, usually organized by not only Shiite militant groups like the League of the Righteous or the Hezbollah Brigades, but also the country’s major political parties like the Sadrists and the Badr Organization. These organizations are now publicly acknowledging their losses in funerals and on the Internet. Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are also recruiting, arming, and funding Iraqis. To help explain this growing flow of men and material to Syria from Iraq is Phillip Smyth. Smyth works for the University of Maryland’s Institute for Advanced Computer Studies’ Lab for Computational Cultural Dynamics. He also writes the Hizballah Cavalcade which focuses on militant Shia organizations operating in Syria, their members, ideologies, arms, funerals, and other related topics for the Jihadology website.

continued

[JWing]

For the last several weeks the Iraqi security forces (ISF) have carried out a number of operations in Anbar, especially in the western desert and along the Euphrates River. This hasn’t seemed to stop the violence however. In fact, as a sign of defiance Al Qaeda in Iraq recently announced an offensive of its own in the province. The situation has gotten so bad that local officials have told the press that the military and police have lost control of the border area, and that fighters are going back and forth between Syria and Iraq at will. This is just the latest example of the ineffectiveness of the army and police in combating the country’s insurgency.

continued

[pcmfr]

http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...he-war/277362/

The article nicely lays out the good, bad, and the ugly of long term impact of the US regime change policy.

"Iraq, today, 10 years on from the war, from the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, is not what the Iraqi people hoped for and expected. We hoped for an inclusive democracy, an Iraq that is at peace with itself and at peace with its neighbors," Salih said. "To be blunt, we are far from that."

"But," he added, "it's important to understand where we started from. ... Literally hundreds of thousands of Iraqis were sent to mass graves. Ten years on from the demise of Saddam Hussein, we're still discovering mass graves across Iraq. And Iraqis are better off without Saddam Hussein -- the overwhelming majority of Iraqis are better off without Saddam Hussein."

[JWing]

Listen to my interview on Middle East Week Podcast about the deteriorating security situation, economic and political problems, and the future of Iraq.

[ganulv]

“The truly incredible story of a guy named Kirk Johnson who started a list of hundreds of Iraqis who needed to get out of their country. They were getting death threats, and he was their only hope. Only 26 and living in his aunt’s basement, he had no idea what to do. How Kirk kind of succeeded spectacularly and failed spectacularly at the same time.” LINK

[JWing]

June 2013 was another violent month in Iraq. Since the beginning of the year, attacks and deaths across the country have been steadily increasing. That reached new levels after the security forces used excessive force in a raid upon protesters in Hawija at the end of April. That led to a series of retaliatory attacks by both insurgents and tribes, and the start of a new offensive by the Baathist Naqshibandi, which ran the Hawija demonstrations. At the same time, Al Qaeda in Iraq has been stepping up its operations since December 2012 with a bombing campaign across southern Iraq along with its traditional targets. The government has tried to respond, but the security forces’ counterproductive tactics of mass arrests and raids have not been able to stem the tide, and have probably made the situation worse. That pretty much sums up the new status quo in Iraq with militants picking up their attacks, while the government is incapable of stopping them.

continued