The reports do not appear to be exaggerated. Official counts vary but range around 50 dead. The MILF is saying 64 PNP dead have been recovered:

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/668150/...ps-were-killed

There is very little clarity on the mission planning, the actual sequence of events, or why they were not able to extract or reinforce the unit. Reports indicate that the fighting went on for 12 hours, starting pre-dawn on Sunday morning and lasting all day. Some reports say that Army reinforcements were sent but encountered opposition, others say no help arrived. Air assets were apparently not deployed.

A lot of what is being said now sounds like people desperately scrambling to cover their backsides.

The area in question is badland, about as bad as it gets. It is absolutely ungoverned space with a heavily armed and highly disaffected populace, many of whom have been fighting all their lives. Both MILF and BIFF units operate in the area, but the distinction is nominal at best: all of them are linked by tribal and blood relations and they will all fight together against an intruder. The MILF position is that they could have kept their people out of the fight if there had been coordination as required under the current truce, but that may or may not be the case. The area is marshland and heavily overgrown, with few roads. Vehicles cannot operate off road and movement is very slow. The ground is flat with few vantage points or reference points and it is very easy to get lost in the marshes. Even if you know where you are, if you aren't familiar with the ground it is very hard to move around. There's a lot of deep water, deep mud, heavy brush.

Some reports say the PNP unit raided a BIFF camp and stumbled into an MILF camp during an attempted retreat. That is very much unconfirmed and I don't think any reliable account of the encounter exists. Some social media reports from the area say that the group was seen moving in on Saturday, in plain clothes and unmarked vehicles but in those towns it would be virtually impossible to move in any numbers without people noticing.

Why they chose a direct raid into the hornet nest is not clear. The last time they had a location on Marwan they put a JDAM through the roof... they didn't get him, but they didn't kill 50+ policemen either. There is speculation that the reward was an issue or that a high profile arrest was sought, also that inter-service rivalry may have come into play. That of course is entirely speculative at this point. Whether or not truth will emerge is another story. I imagine there are a bunch of classified US communications flying around at this point that would be very interesting to see. There is a lot of confusion on the Government side; it appears that even senior police officials were not aware of the operation until it was in progress.

I agree that the strategic value of targeting these individuals is limited, though catching would be a propaganda coup and the reward may have been a factor.

As for the peace process... it was already in deep trouble, and at this point it has about the survival prospects of a snowball in a Mindanao marsh. Maybe when this all dies down it can be revived, but those who opposed it a along, and there are many of them, are having a field day and will not let this go any time soon.