Philippines (2012 onwards, inc OEF)

[Dayuhan]

The relationship between the parties and the primary purposes for action are the key criteria for framing these types of problems.

Talking about "the relationship between the parties" oversimplifies and misrepresents the situation, because in fact there are multiple parties involved, often with widely divergent interests. It's not just the MILF and the Government. The Christian settler bloc and the Muslim traditional politicians that have been allied with Government haven't openly opposed the agreement, but will be trying to manipulate it to serve their interests. MNLF factions have expressed displeasure, less with the agreement than with their exclusion from the negotiating process. The ASG has little political influence but will do what it can to disrupt. There are sub-factions within each of these groups, and within the MILF and the Government. It's messy.

[Dayuhan]

Brief description of ongoing incident:

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/5...sabah-standoff

The Philippines on Saturday called for a peaceful resolution to a tense stand-off between Malaysian forces and a group of gunmen claiming to be followers of the heir of a former Borneo sultan.

The group, estimated at 200 with dozens believed to be armed, landed by boat near the Borneo town of Lahad Datu in Malaysia's Sabah state from the neighboring Philippines on Tuesday.

Police say the group has declared itself followers of a former Philippine-based Islamic sultanate that once controlled parts of Borneo, including the standoff site, and is refusing to leave Malaysian territory.

Further coverage:

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/5...t-leave-borneo

Followers of a Philippine sultan who crossed to the Malaysian state of Sabah this month will not leave and are reclaiming the area as their ancestral territory, the sultan said Sunday amid a tense standoff.

Sultan Jamalul Kiram said his followers -- some 400 people including 20 gunmen -- were resolute in staying despite being cornered by security forces, with the Kuala Lumpur government insisting the group return to the Philippines.

"Why should we leave our own home? In fact they (the Malaysians) are paying rent (to us)," he told reporters in Manila.

"Our followers will stay in (the Sabah town of) Lahad Datu. Nobody will be sent to the Philippines. Sabah is our home," he said....

Little background:

The southern Philippine-based Islamic sultanate once controlled parts of Borneo, including the site of the stand-off, and its heirs have been receiving a nominal yearly compensation package from Malaysia under a long-standing agreement for possession of Sabah.

The Sultan leased the area to the British in perpetuity for a nominal annual payment, which independent Malaysia has continued to pay. There's been occasional agitation for a Philippine claim to Sabah based on the assumption that when the Sultanate ceased to exist as a sovereign entity the claim was absorbed by the Philippine Government, but this incursion does not appear to be sanctioned by Manila.

The connection to the recent peace agreement:

Kiram said he was prompted to send the group to Sabah after the sultanate was left out of a framework agreement sealed in October between Manila and Filipino Muslim rebels, which paves the way for an autonomous area in the southern Philippines that is home to the Muslim minority of the largely-Christian nation.

There's some talk that other groups intend to follow, but the Malaysian Navy says they won't let them approach the shore. Malaysia says the group will be deported, the group says they won't go. Unclear how it will all work out. Also unclear whether the Sultan's family seriously thinks they can settle people in Sabah or whether they're looking for some money to get them to stop making trouble. An increase in the nominal rent has been occasionally mentioned by the Sultan's family, and ignored by the Malaysians.

Another recent development that may be an unexpected consequence of the peace agreement is that the MNLF has recently gone after some ASG units, quite aggressively:

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/zamboanga/...-sayyaf-267276

The attacks were not sanctioned or expected by the Government and the reasoning behind them is not entirely clear. Part of the reason may be an MNLF effort to push their way back into a place at the negotiating table.

New news, the group in Sabah wants to leave, but first wants to meet with "certain personalities", whcih the Malaysians refuse:

http://www.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%...18-402657.html

And a bit more, bit of a hint of how Malaysians see the whole idea:

http://thestar.com.my/columnists/sto...Man%27s%20Meat

We shall see...

[Dayuhan]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/18/wo...ines-standoff/

Filipinos' standoff in Borneo linked to peace deal with Muslim rebels

...The members of the sultanate's royal family, although riven by internal disputes over who the rightful sultan is today, appear to have felt isolated by the provisional accord signed in October by the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which has fought for decades to establish an independent Islamic state in southern Philippines.

Malaysia, a mainly Muslim country, helped facilitate the agreement.

Kiram was cited by AFP as saying that the sultanate's exclusion from the deal, which aims to set up a new autonomous region to be administered by Muslims, prompted the decision to send the men to Sabah this month.

Dispatching the boat loads of followers to Lahad Datu served to make the sultanate's presence felt, according to Wadi.

"The whole aim is not to create conflict or initiate war, it is just to position themselves and make governments like Malaysia and the Philippines recognize them," he said....

[Dayuhan]

This:

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...ge-peace-talks

Raises an interesting question... who's paying for the so-called "sultan's army".

[Dayuhan]

Almost a year back I wrote this...

MNLF factions have expressed displeasure, less with the agreement than with their exclusion from the negotiating process.

Last month Nur Misuari, the leader of one such faction "declared independence", and claimed a new republic consisting of Mindanao, Palawan, the Sulu archipelago, and Sabah and Sarawak.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/re...s-independence

Misuari doesn't have the influence he had back in the 90s, and has been one of those most notably peeved at being left out of the peace agreement with the MILF. The declaration was not taken terrible seriously.

This week, an MNLF force believed to be loyal to Misuari attacked Zamboanga. The situation remains ongoing, several districts of the city are effectively occupied, hostages have been taken. Today there were reports of fighting very close to City Hall. The initial goal was allegedlyu to hoist the MNLF flag at City Hall.

It's a considerable escalation, as Zamboanga has long been fairly peaceful. Hard to know where it will go. The number of sub-leaders loyal to Misuari and the number of troops they control is not accurately known; estimates vary widely. I've read figures from under 1000 to 4000, don't think anyone really knows. These figure can change rapidly as local leader shift alliances.

It's widely suspected in Manila that the whole thing is an effort to distract from a huge ongoing corruption scandal involving major political figures; there may or may not be something to that. It does illustrate the difficulty of negotiating peace, and the number of potential spoiler groups involved.

Reportage on the Zamboanga situation:

http://www.philstar.com/nation/2013/...k-its-villages

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/484401/...-leaves-6-dead

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/re...anga-city-hall

[Dayuhan]

Fighting still ongoing in Zamboanga...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...98D02V20130914

Fighting intensified on Saturday in the southern Philippines between government troops and rogue Muslim separatists, shattering a ceasefire almost immediately as it was to go into effect and leaving many residents running low on supplies.

The army said 53 people had been killed in the fighting, now in its sixth day in the port city of Zamboanga, known as the city of flowers.

Dozens have been wounded and more than 60,000 people displaced, with hundreds of homes razed and a hospital still in flames. Rebels have fired on government positions and seized civilians to use as human shields.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...oanga-conflict

Indonesia wants peaceful resolution of Zamboanga conflict

Natalegawa said Indonesia is always ready, at the request of stakeholders, to contribute to the restoration of normalcy in southern Philippines.

The European Union also expressed concern over the conflict in Zamboanga as it called on the Misuari-led faction of the MNLF to release the civilian hostages without preconditions.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/487263/...ght-says-binay

MANILA, Philippines—After five days of heavy fighting, Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) Chair Nur Misuari and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin have agreed to observe a ceasefire and discuss a “peaceful settlement” of the crisis in Zamboanga City, Vice President Jejomar Binay said Friday night.

http://mnlfnet.com/Articles/Editoria...%20Respect.htm

From the MNLF website

CAUSES OF THE SUDDEN ERUPTION OF FILIPINO-MORO WAR IN ZAMBOANGA CITY

The Filipino-Moro war raging now in Zamboanga City between the colonial Philippine occupation soldiers and the Bangsamoro freedom fighters of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) could not have occurred if the present Aquino government respected only the September 2, 1996 MNLF-OIC-GRP Jakarta Peace Agreements.

break

Thus, once the MNLF leadership was informed by the OIC of the tactical move of the Aquino regime to terminate the peace process with the Moro National Liberation Front, the MNLF Chairman in consultation with the various MNLF leaders decided to prepare a revolutionary government constitution towards the establishment of the United Federated States of Bangsamoro Republik (UFSBR) during last week of July, 2013. -