Very interesting.
The situation thicken.
Wonder why after such a strident support for the benign activities of China, old Panetta is asking Vietnam to allow the US ports in Vietnam.
Very interesting.
The situation thicken.
Wonder why after such a strident support for the benign activities of China, old Panetta is asking Vietnam to allow the US ports in Vietnam.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Good study from ICG on the often overlooked impact of local politics on peacemaking in the OEF-P area of coverage:
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/F...-peace-process
I agree that a peace agreement won't be reached unless the local overlords are brought into the picture. At the same time, it has to be recognized that these overlords are in themselves the central obstacle to any kind of justice or economic development. A peace agreement doesn't necessarily bring peace. The conundrum here is the local elites will derail any peace agreement that doesn't protect their interests, but at the same time their interests are antithetical to the kind of long term progress that could produce lasting peace.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
I relocated this from the "Communist Insurgency" thread, thinking the discussion had strayed into matters better suited here...
That's almost funny, and I can well imagine him saying that. Of course it isn't true... even if the US could force the Philippine Government to give in to the MILF political and ancestral domain demands, it wouldn't solve the problem.
There's a tendency in some quarters to see the Central Mindanao conflict as a fight between the MILF and the government, and to conclude that it could be resolved by an agreement between those two parties. That completely overlooks the role of the well armed and well connected Visayan settler communities, who actually outnumber the Muslims in much of the area in question. Failure to consider the interests and capacities of this group effectively doomed the MOA/AD process from the start.
Central Mindanao is less about the need for peace between the government and the MILF than the need for peace between the MILF and the settlers. In theory the government could referee this process, but the perceived interests of those two groups are very far apart and neither trusts the government, which lost credibility with the Muslims by taking the settler side in the 70s conflict and lost credibility with the settlers by trying to railroad the MOA/AD process. I really don't see much hope for progress in the near future. Any deal with the government that satisfies the MILF will be anathema to the settlers, who have the capacity to politically and judicially derail a deal, and to resort to armed conflict as well.
Last edited by Dayuhan; 08-03-2012 at 02:24 AM.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Announced today, with much fanfasre but no hint of what's been agreed, a new agreement between the MILF and the Philippine Government:
http://www.rappler.com/nation/13750-...ro-soon-on-map
Aquino's comments, largely in Tagalog, here:Govt, MILF reach deal
A new autonomous political entity (NAPE) called "Bangsamoro" will soon be part of the Philippine political map, as the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) conclude negotiations on a Framework Agreement in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on Sunday, October 7.
MindaNews first broke news that the two sides were able to finish working on the Framework Agreement that would pave the way for the NAPE.
Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Deles confirmed that the two sides have reached an agreement.
http://www.rappler.com/thought-leade...ce-in-mindanao
It will be interesting to see what the agreement contains, and, more important, how the settler population of Mindanao, which has long seen any kind of agreement with the MILF as a sellout of its interests, will react.
It's not likely that the agreement will have a major impact on the OEF/P area of operations, looks likely that it's focused on the core MILF areas in Central Mindanao. Hard to say until the text is published.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Draft agreement is here:
http://pcdspo.gov.ph/downloads/2012/...t-10062012.pdf
Will try to have a closer read and post some comments tomorrow, but initial reactions...
It's not all all clear how this is meant to differ from the ARMM, beyond some territorial revisions.
The reaction of the Mindanao settler population will be critical, and remains to be determined. This population is politically potent, has widespread support among the non-Mindanao populace, has derailed a previous agreement, and generally sees accommodation with the MILF as antithetical to its interests.
It's not clear that the Tausug, Yakan, and Sama populations of Basilan, Jolo and associated islands (where the ASG has been rooted and the core operational area of OEF/P) will accept an agreement negotiated by the predominantly Maguindanao/Maranao leadership of the MILF.
They're talking about a signing on the 15th, it will be interesting to see what reactions emerge.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
http://www.rappler.com/nation/13750-...ro-soon-on-map
President Aquino is saying all the right things in this press release. Based on the strategic perspective of insurgency that I regularly promote on this venue, this current effort by the government of the Philippines is spot on. I agree with how they are defining the problem as well as how they are describing the intended effects of this new legislation.
Revolutionary and Resistance insurgencies are much more illegal politics than war, and are endeavors taken on by populaces who have come to believe that their current system is intolerable and that they have no legal recourse to address the same. Recognizing the reasonable perceptions of such populaces and dedicating the entire system of governance to evolve to address those most critical perceptions is key.
"The ARMM is a failed experiment. Many of the people continue to feel alienated by the system, and those who feel that there is no way out will continue to articulate their grievances through the barrel of a gun. We cannot change this without structural reform," he said.
"This framework agreement is about rising above our prejudices. It is about casting aside the distrust and myopia that has plagued the efforts of the past; it is about learning hard lessons and building on the gains we have achieved," the President said.
These critical perceptions form a figurative "circle of trust" that individuals and populace groups either feel that they are within or without; that they are empowered to effect legally or only illegally. Managing the circle of trust is a critical function of governance everywhere, be it formal or informal in nature. Trust is hard to build and easy to destroy, so this is not easy task and will take time, but the journey must begin with the first step.
It is worth remembering that we continue our own journey on this path in the US as we continue to work to overcome the prejudices that affect good governance within our own borders. The saving grace for the US is that the people by and large still believe they have some modicum of ability to legally address, or at least express, their concerns with both governance and government. We should be more diligent in protecting and improving the important aspects of what makes our own society reasonably stable, but I really don't think most appreciate the nuance of what is truly important. That tends to get lost in the noise of what is crurrently urgent.
The devil is in the details, and it is easier to say one is going to rise above their prejudices than it is to actually do so. In my opinion this effort provides a strategic framework for getting to a more stable situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well. I wish the people of the Philippines well on this latest course change to address this ancient problem. They may be 100 years from achieving what we in the US see as reasonable stability, but our perceptions matter little, and I for one believe they are on the right track.
Last edited by Bob's World; 10-08-2012 at 10:11 AM.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
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