How things start...
A bit up this thread I posted some observations from time spent in Wao, Lanao del Sur, a town with a Cristian settler majority and Maranao Muslim minority, at the edge of the Central Mindanao conflict zone.
A few days ago this story broke, from the same place:
http://www.mindanews.com/top-stories...-for-sobriety/
In short: 3 kids, from the Christian settler community were tending water buffaloes. Men wearing "bonnets" (generally a balaclava-type hat covering the face) stole the buffaloes. Two of the kids, ages 13 and 15, were killed with machetes, the 15 year old may have been raped as well. The youngest kid escaped and reported that the killers had left in the direction of a Maranao village.
Early the next morning a large contingent of armed men arrived in that village and shot the place up, killing a number of residents, including at least one pregnant woman, and injuring others. Quantities of 5.56mm and 7.62mm casings were recovered, and 40mm grenades were employed.
According to the official story, all the officials in the picture are urging calm and sobriety and promising to track down and arrest all of the various perpetrators. Whether they do so in time remains to be seen, as there are reports on the ground of armed men arriving from surrounding areas to support their respective relatives and allies.
I made some inquiries among people I know in that area, and got sent this account, from an unnamed source:
On April 25, 2014 at exactly 4:30 dawn, twelve Maranao residents at Sitio Magampong of Wao, Lanao del Sur were massacred by the men of Wao Municipal Mayor Balicao and the private army of the mayor's son, brgy chairman Balicao with the protection of the Batallion Commander of the 6 IB of the AFP assigned in the area.
A day before the incident, a girl and one man were killed by two Christian men of the municipal mayor covering their faces with bonnet and rustled their two cows. The son of the municipal mayor who is the barangay chairman together with his private army informed all the Maranao residents to hide their arms if they have because the AFP men is going to conduct search and seizure in their houses. Taking heed to the information, the residents hid their arms. But in the early dawn, upon instruction of the Mayor and his son who is the barangay chairman in the sitio went to the houses of the Maranao residents and met a certain pregnant Maranao woman along the way and shot her mercilessly to death. They proceeded to the houses and more than 70 of them in number fired at the houses where there were sleeping residents causing the death of 5 residents. The son of Balicao with his BAR went upstairs and shot those who were still alive to death. One of the victims who has the .38 caliber shot the culprit causing him to jump out from the house. While he was downstairs, he ordered his private army and the closed in body guards of the mayor to fire at them until there was sound of silence. They left the area causing 5 dead and 7 seriously wounded. When they left, they were shouting with joy and laughing louder proceeding to the houses of the Balicaos rendering their reports.
The victims who were seriously wounded were brought to the nearby hospitals.
On Sunday 26 April 2015, Gov. Bombit Adiong went to the area and called a meeting with Mayor Balicao and his son to discuss the incident. It was clearly implied in all the statements of the mayor that his men and private army of his son were the ones who massacred the innocent Maranao civilians.
I am NOT saying the above is true: it could easily be embellished or invented. There are many inconsistencies between this account and the published accounts, but that is normal in these incidents, and each source often has a different account. It's significant, though, because it is circulating among the Muslim side and is being widely accepted as fact. People act on what they believe, not what is true.
My own take... I am not convinced that the initial crimes were a deliberate provocation. That area has a significant drug problem, mainly crystal meth. A buffalo is a quick money theft, and that kind of theft and the gratuitous violence that accompanied it could easily be a straight crime with no political overtone... or not, of course.
The revenge killings could very easily have involved approval of or even cooperation by local officials... in fact it's hard to believe that a raid on that scale could be organized and carried out without their knowledge, as they keep their armed groups under fairly close control. The habit of collective punishment, and responding to a crime by attacking the village the criminals are believed to come from is well entrenched. I can't say that it definitely was the work of local officials, but it seems entirely possible to me. The habit of blaming the other is well entrenched, and if the suspects were seen heading in the direction of a village that would be interpreted by many as sufficient cause for a raid.
The involvement of the military is possible but doubtful; the (Christian settler) local militias would have sufficient men and weapons to carry out the raid on their own. These are groups of semi-trained local men that are paid and armed by the government, nominally under military command but in practice typically under control of local elites and officials. The distinction between these militias and the "private armies" of these elites and officials is spotty at best.
Where it goes from here remains to be seen. On both sides you have official forces, the MILF and the Philippine Army, who would prefer to avoid wider conflict. You also have heavily armed irregular militias on both sides who are out for revenge and spoiling for a fight. It could blow up into a serious clash, or it could calm down and become just one more in a long history of smaller flare-ups.
Likely it will go nowhere, but it remains of interest, I think, as an illustration of how conflict can spark in a polarized community with a strong "us vs them" polarization, a history of violence, and a lot of loose arms.
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